BetUK Winter Derby Stakes (Group 3) (All-Weather Championships Fast-Track Qualifier)

Lingfield (AW)

14:05

Date 2023-02-25

Distance 1m2f

Class Class 1

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £56,710

Winning Time 2m 2.32s (slow by 1.02s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Lord North (IRE) Robert Havlin · John & Thady Gosden	8/11F	Won
2nd	Tyrrhenian Sea (IRE) David Egan · Roger Varian	9/2	3.25
3rd	Foxes Tales (IRE) Rob Hornby · Andrew Balding	11/1	0.2
4th	Harrovian (GB) Kieran O'Neill · John & Thady Gosden	17/2	2
5th	Lucander (IRE) Andrea Atzeni · George Baker	33/1	0.2
6th	Forest Of Dean (GB) Collen Storey · John & Thady Gosden	17/2	0.05
7th	King Of The South (IRE) Jamie Spencer · William Knight	22/1	13
8th	Pistoletto (USA) David Probert · John Ryan	150/1	0.2

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (1)	Forest Of Dean Bay J:Collen Storey T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Collen Storey T:John & Thady Gosden	128	p	0/45-1	105	124	97	44d	—	—	—	23.8	—	—
Won this in 2021, but 8l behind Lord North when fourth last year; should run his race
2 (7)	Foxes Tales Bay J:Rob Hornby T:Andrew Balding	J:Rob Hornby T:Andrew Balding	128	—	24649-	105	123	-	203d	—	—	—	14.8	—	—
Not at his best last year and returns from 203 days off (gelded since); tough task
3 (5)	Harrovian Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Kieran O'Neill T:John & Thady Gosden	128	tb	0363-3	104	122	106	44d	—	—	—	16.5	—	—
May be suited by the return to Polytrack, but another placing may be his best hope
4 (4)	King Of The South Bay J:Jamie Spencer T:William Knight	J:Jamie Spencer T:William Knight	128	v	512-55	102	121	83	28d	—	—	—	13	—	—
Seven wins on Tapeta, but 0-6 on Polytrack; likely to find this too sharp
5 (3)	Lord North Bay J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Robert Havlin T:John & Thady Gosden	128	—	21454-	118	134	-	238d	—	—	—	21	—	—
Three-time Group 1 winner; second in this last year, but should be hard to beat this time
6 (6)	Lucander Bay J:Andrea Atzeni T:George Baker	J:Andrea Atzeni T:George Baker	128	b	01-541	106	118	-	8d	—	—	—	14	—	—
Dual winner on turf in Bahrain during the winter, but more will be needed here
7 (8)	Pistoletto Bay J:David Probert T:John Ryan	J:David Probert T:John Ryan	128	p	063-78	78	100	84	—	—	—	—	7	—	—
Fifth in this last year, but losing run up to 16 and would be a shock winner
8 (2)	Tyrrhenian Sea Grey J:David Egan T:Roger Varian	J:David Egan T:Roger Varian	128	—	24350-	103	122	-	133d	—	—	—	15.8	—	—
Has shaped as though worth another go at 1m2f; may yet have a bigger effort in him

No odds data available.

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Forest Of Dean

23.8

OR: 13.8 Form: 10 Odds: 0

—

2nd

Lord North

OR: 17 Form: 4 Odds: 0

—

3rd

Harrovian

16.5

OR: 13.5 Form: 3 Odds: 0

—

Tyrrhenian Sea

15.8

OR: 13.3 Form: 2.5 Odds: 0

—

Foxes Tales

14.8

OR: 13.8 Form: 1 Odds: 0

—

Lucander

OR: 14 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

King Of The South

OR: 13 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Pistoletto

OR: 7 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Lord North	118	134	—
Lucander	106	118	—
Forest Of Dean	105	124	97
Foxes Tales	105	123	—
Harrovian	104	122	106
Tyrrhenian Sea	103	122	—
King Of The South	102	121	83
Pistoletto	78	100	84

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Lucander	8d ago	Quick return
King Of The South	28d ago	Fit
Forest Of Dean	44d ago	Fit
Harrovian	44d ago	Fit
Tyrrhenian Sea	133d ago	Long break
Foxes Tales	203d ago	Long break
Lord North	238d ago	Long break
Pistoletto	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Lingfield (AW) over 1m2f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.