Read Blogs @unibetracing Novice Stakes (GBB Race) – Kempton (AW)

Kempton (AW)

17:30

Read Blogs @unibetracing Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Date 2023-04-17

Distance 6f

Class Class 5

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,780

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
8 (10)	Wallop Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Richard Hannon	J:Oisin Murphy T:Richard Hannon	130	—	352-	98	99	-	200d	—	—	-17	37.9	0.15/1	8/13 62%
Smart form in three starts on turf last year and a half-brother to two good AW winners
2 (2)	Almaty Star Bay J:David Egan T:Roger Varian	J:David Egan T:Roger Varian	130	—	36-	-	84	-	192d	—	—	-15	9.4	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Promising Haydock debut but disappointed at York next time; half-brother to a winner here
6 (5)	Never This Way Chestnut J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-9	3.6	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Only newcomer in field, but plenty to like on breeding for top yard; watch the market
NR (6)	Exorbitant Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Clive Cox	J:Rossa Ryan T:Clive Cox	130	—	6	-	60	45	19d	—	—	-4	1.4	4.75/1	20 5%
Reared in stalls on C&D debut, but showed some ability in sixth; should come on from it
7 (7)	Spirit Of Breeze Bay J:Tom Queally T:Gary Moore	J:Tom Queally T:Gary Moore	130	—	63-	-	73	-	171d	—	—	0	4	6.00/1	25 4%
Not without ability in two starts last year, but looks more one for handicaps
4 (1)	Lynwood Lad Bay J:Rob Hornby T:Jonathan Portman	J:Rob Hornby T:Jonathan Portman	130	—	56	-	60	45	19d	—	—	-2	0.8	8.00/1	33 3%
Small amount of ability in two starts here last month; handicaps likely to be his thing
1 (3)	Cloud Cuckoo Bay J:Dane O'Neill T:Henry Candy	J:Dane O'Neill T:Henry Candy	141	—	53-	-	65	27	218d	—	—	+1	3.8	8.00/1	33 3%
Better form on his second start last year; handicaps may provide better opportunities
5 (11)	Metarace Chestnut J:Mohammed Tabti(7) T:Paul & Oliver Cole	J:Mohammed Tabti(7) T:Paul & Oliver Cole	130	—	0-	-	39	-	308d	—	—	-1	0.5	16.25/1	66 2%
Well held on his Windsor debut last summer; probably best watched
9 (9)	Close Of Play Bay J:George Rooke T:Mark Usher	J:George Rooke T:Mark Usher	125	—	4-	-	73	29	168d	—	—	-1	0.4	24.75/1	100 1%
Ran well when fourth on her Wolverhampton debut last autumn, but form hasn't worked out
11 (4)	Tough Girl Bay J:J F Egan T:Michael Wigham	J:J F Egan T:Michael Wigham	125	h	09	-	36	-	16d	—	—	-1	0.2	62.25/1	250 0%
Has failed to beat a rival in her first two starts; can be handicapped after this
10 (8)	Musterion Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:John Butler	J:Lewis Edmunds T:John Butler	125	—	088	-	69	47	12d	—	—	-1	0.2	31.00/1	125 1%
Has shown little in three starts over further; looks one for handicaps

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Wallop	8/13	4/7	8/13	8/13	8/15
Almaty Star	5/2	11/4	9/4	5/2	11/4
Never This Way	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2	6
Exorbitant	20	18	18	18	18
Spirit Of Breeze	25	25	25	25	25
Lynwood Lad	33	28	25	28	28
Cloud Cuckoo	33	28	28	28	28
Metarace	66	50	40	50	40
Close Of Play	100	66	66	66	66
Tough Girl	250	200	150	200	150
Musterion	100	125	100	100	100

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Wallop

37.9

OR: 12 Form: 6.5 Odds: 19.4

8/13

2nd

Almaty Star

9.4

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 7.3

11/4

3rd

Spirit Of Breeze

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 1

Cloud Cuckoo

3.8

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 0.8

Never This Way

3.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Exorbitant

1.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Lynwood Lad

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

Metarace

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

Close Of Play

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100

Tough Girl

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

250

Musterion

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

125

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Wallop	98	99	—
Almaty Star	—	84	—
Never This Way	—	—	—
Exorbitant	—	60	45
Spirit Of Breeze	—	73	—
Lynwood Lad	—	60	45
Cloud Cuckoo	—	65	27
Metarace	—	39	—
Close Of Play	—	73	29
Tough Girl	—	36	—
Musterion	—	69	47

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Musterion	12d ago	Quick return
Tough Girl	16d ago	Fit
Exorbitant	19d ago	Fit
Lynwood Lad	19d ago	Fit
Close Of Play	168d ago	Long break
Spirit Of Breeze	171d ago	Long break
Almaty Star	192d ago	Long break
Wallop	200d ago	Long break
Cloud Cuckoo	218d ago	Long break
Metarace	308d ago	Long break
Never This Way	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Kempton (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.