Cazoo Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands C and D) (GBB Race)

Southwell (AW)

18:30

Date 2023-04-18

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3-5yo

Prize £4,320

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (9)	Military Tycoon Bay J:Ben Curtis T:Hugo Palmer	J:Ben Curtis T:Hugo Palmer	128	—	44	-	83	-	13d	—	—	-21	9.4	0.44/1	7/4 36%
Solid form on both starts (AW & turf); is race-fit, so shouldn't be far away.
1 (6)	Indiana Be Bay J:P J McDonald T:Edward Bethell	J:P J McDonald T:Edward Bethell	128	—	24320-	76	91	-	199d	—	—	-8	21.4	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Showed ample ability as a juvenile; tackles a new trip (on AW debut) in a winnable maiden.
6 (5)	Silver Sword Grey J:G Cheyne T:Dylan Cunha	J:G Cheyne T:Dylan Cunha	126	—	RR52-	-	89	60	157d	—	—	-10	9.5	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Refused to race first two runs; runner-up at Lingfield (1m2f) in Nov; headgear is missing.
4 (2)	Senseofentitlement Grey J:Jason Watson T:David Omeara	J:Jason Watson T:David Omeara	128	—	52-	-	80	-	186d	—	0W/0P 1 run	0	6.7	2.75/1	12 8%
No match for odds-on favourite at Redcar (1m) in November; has potential; market helpful.
8 (8)	Five Winds Bay J:Dylan Hogan T:Jack Jones	J:Dylan Hogan T:Jack Jones	123	—	4	-	73	36	19d	—	—	-4	1.4	3.25/1	14 7%
Blew the start and ran green thereafter on recent Wolverhampton (8.5f; 80-1) debut.
9 (1)	Brigitte Bay J:Rowan Scott T:James Fanshawe	J:Rowan Scott T:James Fanshawe	121	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.9	6.00/1	25 4%
12th foal; half-sister to four winners, inc Mutawathea; trainer is 3-15 with 3yo's in 2023
7 (3)	Cmon Ellie Bay J:Luke Morris T:Ian Williams	J:Luke Morris T:Ian Williams	123	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.5	24.75/1	100 1%
12,000euros foal; first foal from a 1m juvenile winner; trainer is 0-13 with 3yo's in 2023
3 (7)	Patriots Choice Bay J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Charlie Johnston	J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Charlie Johnston	128	—	89	-	51	-	13d	—	—	-1	0.3	49.75/1	200 1%
Obvious signs of inexperience so far (7f/1m); difficult to fancy on that limited evidence.
5 (4)	Dragonmyheart Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Denis Quinn	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Denis Quinn	126	—	80	-	46	18	20d	—	—	-1	0.2	62.25/1	250 0%
Big prices and well beaten on both AW starts (7f/1m)

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Military Tycoon	7/4	13/8	13/8	13/8	13/8
Indiana Be	15/8	7/4	7/4	15/8	7/4
Silver Sword	3	3	3	3	10/3
Senseofentitlement	11	12	12	12	12
Five Winds	14	14	14	14	14
Brigitte	25	25	25	25	25
Cmon Ellie	100	66	50	50	66
Patriots Choice	200	150	150	150	150
Dragonmyheart	250	150	150	150	150

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Indiana Be

21.4

OR: 6.5 Form: 6 Odds: 8.9

15/8

2nd

Silver Sword

9.5

OR: 0 Form: 3.8 Odds: 5.7

10/3

3rd

Military Tycoon

9.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 9.4

7/4

Senseofentitlement

6.7

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 1.7

Five Winds

1.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Brigitte

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Cmon Ellie

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

100

Patriots Choice

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

200

Dragonmyheart

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

250

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Indiana Be	76	91	—
Military Tycoon	—	83	—
Silver Sword	—	89	60
Senseofentitlement	—	80	—
Five Winds	—	73	36
Brigitte	—	—	—
Cmon Ellie	—	—	—
Patriots Choice	—	51	—
Dragonmyheart	—	46	18

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Military Tycoon	13d ago	Quick return
Patriots Choice	13d ago	Quick return
Five Winds	19d ago	Fit
Dragonmyheart	20d ago	Fit
Silver Sword	157d ago	Long break
Senseofentitlement	186d ago	Long break
Indiana Be	199d ago	Long break
Brigitte	—	—
Cmon Ellie	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.