Happy 50th Birthday Lucy Adkins-Young Fillies' Handicap

Doncaster

17:40

Date 2023-04-29

Distance 6f2y

Class Class 5

Going Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £4,187

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
NR (11)	Emeralds Pride Brown J:NON-RUNNER T:Michael Dods	J:NON-RUNNER T:Michael Dods	128	—	43346-	63	83	-	241d	—	—	-23	19.7	—	—
Won on 2022 reappearance and nicely treated on peal form; considered
5 (8)	Little Muddy Bay J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	134	—	3363-1	69	85	71	27d	—	—	0	20.9	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Won on 5f course reappearance four weeks ago; fine at 6f; should give a good account
3 (2)	Rhythm Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Ruth Carr	J:Joanna Mason T:Ruth Carr	135	p	3311-1	70	84	65	26d	—	—	+1	20.7	1.13/1	9/2 18%
On a roll, completing hat-trick on 6f Newcastle reappearance; further 3lb rise looks fair
1 (13)	Miss Bella Brand Bay J:Benoit De La Sayette(3) T:Mrs Ilka Gansera-Leveque	J:Benoit De La Sayette(3) T:Mrs Ilka Gansera-Leveque	136	—	1-2624	71	83	65	22d	—	—	+1	17	0.75/1	4 25%
Won at Southwell (6f) in December and remained in form since; fully effective on turf
NR (3)	Roshambo Bay J:TBC T:Julie Camacho	J: T:Julie Camacho	136	—	/2215-	71	79	48	223d	—	—	+2	22.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
AW handicap debut win last August; only fifth on turf final start but remains unexposed
8 (6)	Shes The Danger Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Roy Bowring	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Roy Bowring	128	p	0003-9	63	80	66	78d	—	—	-3	5.8	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Win and second here summer but hard to get too excited by this winter's AW form
9 (4)	Angel Amadea Grey J:Jack Mitchell T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Jack Mitchell T:Rebecca Menzies	128	—	24-318	63	82	67	33d	—	—	-4	6.1	1.88/1	15/2 12%
6f Wolverhampton novice win in February but well held in handicap there since
6 (14)	Close Quarters Bay J:Jason Hart T:John Quinn	J:Jason Hart T:John Quinn	132	—	32290-	67	78	63	150d	—	—	+3	11.2	2.00/1	9 11%
Well held in handicaps last year but still early days for this half-sister to Winter Power
11 (5)	Dandys Gold Bay J:Jonny Peate(5) T:Roger Fell	J:Jonny Peate(5) T:Roger Fell	127	—	200-59	62	79	82	70d	—	—	-2	4.9	2.75/1	12 8%
Not at best on AW lately but back to mark she won off on turf last summer; not dismissed
12 (12)	Spear Fir Bay J:Phil Dennis T:Simon Whitaker	J:Phil Dennis T:Simon Whitaker	126	—	22428-	61	83	76	194d	—	—	+4	10.7	3.25/1	14 7%
Twice second in sprint handicaps in 2022 but peak fitness not assured after 194 days off
7 (9)	Amber Dew Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Scott Dixon	J:Tom Eaves T:Scott Dixon	130	—	7-9690	65	80	68	22d	—	—	+1	4.8	6.00/1	25 4%
Mark on the slide but she's struggled on AW lately
4 (10)	Lotus Rose Bay J:Ben Curtis T:Roger Fell	J:Ben Curtis T:Roger Fell	135	—	4178-0	70	82	71	27d	—	—	+2	6.2	6.75/1	28 4%
Front-runner; faded to finish last on 5f course return; needs to leave that well behind
13 (7)	Brides Bay Bay J:Barry McHugh T:Sam England	J:Barry McHugh T:Sam England	119	—	4640-0	54	80	59	16d	—	—	-1	1.8	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Fourth on yard debut last autumn but last on both outings since
14 (1)	Madam Arkati Brown J:Paula Muir(3) T:Chris Fairhurst	J:Paula Muir(3) T:Chris Fairhurst	116	—	7-6880	51	72	-	36d	—	—	-1	0.8	12.25/1	50 2%
Poor form at best, including beating only couple home in AW handicaps in recent months

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Emeralds Pride	SP	SP	SP	SP	SP
Little Muddy	7/2	10/3	7/2	7/2	7/2
Rhythm	9/2	4	9/2	4	4
Miss Bella Brand	4	4	4	4	4
Roshambo	13/2	5	5	5	5
Shes The Danger	8	8	17/2	17/2	8
Angel Amadea	8	8	15/2	8	8
Close Quarters	9	9	9	9	9
Dandys Gold	12	12	10/1	12	12
Spear Fir	14	12	10	12	12
Amber Dew	25	22	18	22	22
Lotus Rose	25	28	22	28	28
Brides Bay	33	33	28	33/1	28
Madam Arkati	50	50	50	50	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Roshambo

22.3

OR: 5.3 Form: 11 Odds: 6.1

13/2

2nd

Little Muddy

20.9

OR: 4.8 Form: 10 Odds: 6.2

7/2

3rd

Rhythm

20.7

OR: 5 Form: 10 Odds: 5.7

9/2

Emeralds Pride

19.7

OR: 3.3 Form: 2.4 Odds: 14.1

—

Miss Bella Brand

OR: 5.3 Form: 7 Odds: 4.7

Close Quarters

11.2

OR: 4.3 Form: 4.6 Odds: 2.4

Spear Fir

10.7

OR: 2.8 Form: 6 Odds: 1.9

Lotus Rose

6.2

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Angel Amadea

6.1

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Shes The Danger

5.8

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Dandys Gold

4.9

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

Amber Dew

4.8

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Brides Bay

1.8

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Madam Arkati

0.8

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Miss Bella Brand	71	83	65
Roshambo	71	79	48
Rhythm	70	84	65
Lotus Rose	70	82	71
Little Muddy	69	85	71
Close Quarters	67	78	63
Amber Dew	65	80	68
Emeralds Pride	63	83	—
Shes The Danger	63	80	66
Angel Amadea	63	82	67
Dandys Gold	62	79	82
Spear Fir	61	83	76
Brides Bay	54	80	59
Madam Arkati	51	72	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Brides Bay	16d ago	Fit
Miss Bella Brand	22d ago	Fit
Amber Dew	22d ago	Fit
Rhythm	26d ago	Fit
Little Muddy	27d ago	Fit
Lotus Rose	27d ago	Fit
Angel Amadea	33d ago	Fit
Madam Arkati	36d ago	Fit
Dandys Gold	70d ago	Fresh
Shes The Danger	78d ago	Fresh
Close Quarters	150d ago	Long break
Spear Fir	194d ago	Long break
Roshambo	223d ago	Long break
Emeralds Pride	241d ago	Long break