Follow @attheraces On Twitter Handicap Chase – Newcastle

Newcastle

15:25

Follow @attheraces On Twitter Handicap Chase

Date 2023-05-16

Distance 2m4f19y

Class Class 4

Going Good

Type Chase

Surface Turf

Age Band 5yo+

Prize £4,859

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
9	Ribeye Bay J:Thomas Dowson T:Peter Atkinson	J:Thomas Dowson T:Peter Atkinson	149	—	4133-1	96	121	107	10d	—	—	+1	30.9	0.44/1	7/4 36%
2-3 over fences, latest win at Hexham last week; up in grade but should go well again
7	Limerick Leader Bay J:Dylan Johnston(7) T:Rose Dobbin	J:Dylan Johnston(7) T:Rose Dobbin	153	tp	33527-	100	121	97	52d	—	—	+4	23.2	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Better of two runs over fences when third at Musselburgh in January; not so good next time
8	Croagh Patrick Bay J:Jonathan England T:Sam England	J:Jonathan England T:Sam England	151	tp	33322-	98	121	106	38d	—	—	+13	27.9	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Not won since March 2022; series of good runs since, including last time; chance
1	Marshalled Bay J:Richie McLernon T:Ben Haslam	J:Richie McLernon T:Ben Haslam	169	—	U9533-	116	122	110	32d	—	—	+12	24.9	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Ex-Irish; fair runs on last 2 starts despite jumping errors; good ground ideal; a possible
2	Luckofthedraw Grey J:Brian Hughes T:Toby Bulgin	J:Brian Hughes T:Toby Bulgin	165	—	92136-	112	122	94	18d	—	—	+20	25.8	3.25/1	14 7%
Won 3-runner chase in March; not run quite so well since; ground suits but a bit to prove
5	Joke Dancer Chestnut J:Ross Chapman T:Sue Smith	J:Ross Chapman T:Sue Smith	160	p	3056P-	107	127	130	49d	—	—	+8	16.5	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Kelso winner last May; disappointing since, but now 16lb lower; yet to win at beyond 2m1f
6	Ice Coast Bay J:Henry Brooke T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	J:Henry Brooke T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	157	tp	2/86P-	104	-	-	130d	—	—	+14	18	6.75/1	28 4%
Ex-French; pulled up on chase debut; has since had a second win op; should do better
3	Tontos Spirit Bay J:Conor O'Farrell T:Miss A M Slack	J:Conor O'Farrell T:Miss A M Slack	163	—	3157P-	110	124	106	31d	—	—	+14	18.2	6.75/1	28 4%
Below par on heavy this year but interesting off this mark back on good ground
4	Big Difference Bay J:Harry Reed T:Tim Reed	J:Harry Reed T:Tim Reed	160	—	31255-	107	122	106	162d	—	—	+19	20.9	12.25/1	50 2%
Has the ground in his favour and effective at 2m4f but may need the run after a break

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Ribeye	7/4	7/4	7/4	7/4	13/8
Limerick Leader	10/3	10/3	3	10/3	10/3
Croagh Patrick	5	9/2	9/2	9/2	5
Marshalled	6	11/2	5/1	6	6
Luckofthedraw	14	12	11	12	12
Joke Dancer	12	12	12	12	14/1
Ice Coast	28	25	25	25	25
Tontos Spirit	25	25	20/1	25	28
Big Difference	50	50	40	50	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Ribeye

30.9

OR: 11.5 Form: 10 Odds: 9.4

7/4

2nd

Croagh Patrick

27.9

OR: 12 Form: 11.5 Odds: 4.4

9/2

3rd

Luckofthedraw

25.8

OR: 15.5 Form: 8.6 Odds: 1.7

Marshalled

24.9

OR: 16.5 Form: 4.8 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Limerick Leader

23.2

OR: 12.5 Form: 5 Odds: 5.7

10/3

Big Difference

20.9

OR: 14.3 Form: 6.1 Odds: 0.6

Tontos Spirit

18.2

OR: 15 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.1

Ice Coast

OR: 13.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1

Joke Dancer

16.5

OR: 14.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

14/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Marshalled	116	122	110
Luckofthedraw	112	122	94
Tontos Spirit	110	124	106
Joke Dancer	107	127	130
Big Difference	107	122	106
Ice Coast	104	—	—
Limerick Leader	100	121	97
Croagh Patrick	98	121	106
Ribeye	96	121	107

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Ribeye	10d ago	Quick return
Luckofthedraw	18d ago	Fit
Tontos Spirit	31d ago	Fit
Marshalled	32d ago	Fit
Croagh Patrick	38d ago	Fit
Joke Dancer	49d ago	Fresh
Limerick Leader	52d ago	Fresh
Ice Coast	130d ago	Long break
Big Difference	162d ago	Long break