Lope Y Fernandez At The National Stud Handicap – Newmarket

Newmarket

20:40

Lope Y Fernandez At The National Stud Handicap

Date 2023-05-18

Distance 6f

Class Class 5

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo

Prize £5,234

Runners (13)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
8 (7)	Hiatus Bay J:Neil Callan T:Conrad Allen	J:Neil Callan T:Conrad Allen	133	—	472461	73	89	70	10d	—	—	+8	20.9	11/2 15%
The ground was soft when impressing at Windsor; only 1lb well-in with the penalty.
3 (8)	Ertebat Bay J:James Doyle T:Hugo Palmer	J:James Doyle T:Hugo Palmer	135	tb	542-1	75	89	55	15d	—	—	+4	21.5	7/2 22%
The form of his Pontefract win has been franked so a 5lb rise seems fair.
5 (11)	Pierce Bay J:Adam Kirby T:Clive Cox	J:Adam Kirby T:Clive Cox	133	b	662-4	73	82	55	37d	—	—	+2	7.4	16 6%
Stronger pace would have helped on comeback and now goes in blinkers.
7 (5)	Champagne Sarah Chestnut J:Ben Curtis T:Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	J:Ben Curtis T:Mike Murphy & Michael Keady	133	—	313-34	73	85	19	41d	—	—	-1	8.3	16 6%
Doesn't look ahead of her mark but gives the impression that this stiff 6f might suit.
10 (13)	Confederation Grey J:Kyle Strydom T:Dylan Cunha	J:Kyle Strydom T:Dylan Cunha	130	t	6-3424	70	83	68	10d	—	—	+2	6.2	25 4%
Not on a bad mark and best to put a line through his Windsor run behind Hiatus.
1 (3)	Beautiful Sunrise Bay J:Ross Coakley T:James Ferguson	J:Ross Coakley T:James Ferguson	137	—	224-26	77	81	64	78d	—	—	+3	8.1	18 6%
He's a speedy sort who may struggle to get home on this stiffer course.
4 (2)	Quinault Bay J:Luke Catton(5) T:Stuart Williams	J:Luke Catton(5) T:Stuart Williams	134	ht	7-3611	74	90	62	15d	—	—	-10	12.7	3 33%
Sudden improvement to win his last two and could well deal with latest 9lb rise.
12 (1)	Mont Vallon Bay J:Joe Fanning T:Stuart Williams	J:Joe Fanning T:Stuart Williams	120	t	070-	60	77	49	147d	—	—	0	3.5	33 3%
Gelded ahead of going handicapping and the tongue-tie is another notable addition.
2 (9)	Fierce Bay J:Tom Queally T:Gary Moore	J:Tom Queally T:Gary Moore	135	—	53234-	75	84	75	154d	—	—	+3	15.1	9 11%
There are races to be won off this mark and market can guide after a break.
6 (6)	Ajjaj Bay J:Alec Voikhansky(5) T:Richard Hannon	J:Alec Voikhansky(5) T:Richard Hannon	133	—	60-1	73	80	52	15d	—	—	+12	17.4	12 8%
Beat a 100-1 chance in his maiden at Kempton and that form looks dubious.
13 (4)	Mine That Ship Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	117	—	389	57	79	-	22d	—	—	-5	6.6	15/2 12%
She's with a respected yard and should be seen to better effect in handicaps.
11 (12)	Warminster Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:John Ryan	J:Cieren Fallon T:John Ryan	128	—	-15360	68	83	-	41d	—	—	+6	8.7	40 3%
Hasn't progressed from his January maiden win at Kempton (6f); enough to prove.
9 (10)	Skallywag Bay Grey J:Sam Hitchcott T:Richard Hannon	J:Sam Hitchcott T:Richard Hannon	132	—	671-0	72	86	61	14d	—	—	+1	7.2	66 2%
Finished last on handicap debut and her Kempton win is very much a standout.

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Hiatus	5	6	6	11/2	11/2
Ertebat	10/3	10/3	7/2	10/3	10/3
Pierce	16	14	14	14	12
Champagne Sarah	12	16	14	16	16
Confederation	25	22	20	22	22
Beautiful Sunrise	14	18	18	16	18
Quinault	3	3	3	3	3
Mont Vallon	33	28	25	28	28
Fierce	9	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Ajjaj	12	12	12	12	12
Mine That Ship	7	15/2	15/2	7	7
Warminster	40	33	40	40	40
Skallywag Bay	66	33	50	50	28

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Ertebat

21.5

OR: 6.3 Form: 10 Odds: 5.2

7/2

2nd

Hiatus

20.9

OR: 5.8 Form: 11.5 Odds: 3.6

11/2

3rd

Ajjaj

17.4

OR: 5.8 Form: 10 Odds: 1.6

Fierce

15.1

OR: 6.3 Form: 5.5 Odds: 3.3

Quinault

12.7

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 6.7

Warminster

8.7

OR: 4.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0.7

Champagne Sarah

8.3

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

Beautiful Sunrise

8.1

OR: 6.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Pierce

7.4

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Skallywag Bay

7.2

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Mine That Ship

6.6

OR: 1.8 Form: 1.5 Odds: 3.3

15/2

Confederation

6.2

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Mont Vallon

3.5

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Beautiful Sunrise	77	81	64
Ertebat	75	89	55
Fierce	75	84	75
Quinault	74	90	62
Hiatus	73	89	70
Pierce	73	82	55
Champagne Sarah	73	85	19
Ajjaj	73	80	52
Skallywag Bay	72	86	61
Confederation	70	83	68
Warminster	68	83	—
Mont Vallon	60	77	49
Mine That Ship	57	79	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Hiatus	10d ago	Quick return
Confederation	10d ago	Quick return
Skallywag Bay	14d ago	Fit
Ertebat	15d ago	Fit
Quinault	15d ago	Fit
Ajjaj	15d ago	Fit
Mine That Ship	22d ago	Fit
Pierce	37d ago	Fit
Champagne Sarah	41d ago	Fit
Warminster	41d ago	Fit
Beautiful Sunrise	78d ago	Fresh
Mont Vallon	147d ago	Long break
Fierce	154d ago	Long break