Follow @bresbet On Twitter Handicap – Brighton

Brighton

14:10

Follow @bresbet On Twitter Handicap

Date 2023-05-30

Distance 5f60y

Class Class 6

Going Firm

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £3,245

Runners (7)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (1)	Alfred Cove Bay J:Mollie Phillips(3) T:Tony Carroll	J:Mollie Phillips(3) T:Tony Carroll	130	—	2-9838	54	73	42	4d	—	—	-16	13.9	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Got no run at Bath on Friday, but now 0-16 and a sharp 5f like this may not be ideal
3 (5)	Big Time Maybe Bay J:Josephine Gordon T:Phil Mcentee	J:Josephine Gordon T:Phil Mcentee	134	—	237011	58	68	60	7d	—	—	+6	25.3	0.88/1	7/2 22%
4-8 over C&D, including when making all one week ago; major player despite penalty
4 (6)	Im Mable Bay J:Paddy Bradley(3) T:Michael Attwater	J:Paddy Bradley(3) T:Michael Attwater	132	—	885654	56	69	60	7d	—	—	-11	6.7	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Under a length behind Big Time Maybe over C&D last week and 4lb better off; shortlisted
7 (7)	Ellie Piper Bay J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Robyn Brisland	J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Robyn Brisland	123	—	5-7588	47	74	67	29d	—	—	-8	3.3	1.25/1	6 17%
Both wins came off higher marks last year but she doesn't look ready to take advantage
1 (2)	Vandad Bay J:Darragh Keenan T:Michael Attwater	J:Darragh Keenan T:Michael Attwater	135	tp	8-7876	59	70	46	19d	—	—	-6	5.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Has shown little on the AW this year, but 5lb lower than for the latest of two C&D wins
6 (3)	Battle Point Bay J:William Carson T:Michael Attwater	J:William Carson T:Michael Attwater	126	p	335144	50	72	-	17d	—	—	+1	7.5	2.50/1	11 9%
1-18 and 0-4 on turf; others hold more compelling claims
2 (4)	John Ogroats Bay J:Rob Hornby T:Mark Gillard	J:Rob Hornby T:Mark Gillard	134	—	9-2770	58	68	65	14d	—	—	0	2.6	12.25/1	50 2%
0-11 and little to suggest dropping to 5f will result in a change of fortune

Horse	bet365	Coral
Alfred Cove	15/8	15/8
Big Time Maybe	4	7/2
Im Mable	9/2	4
Ellie Piper	6	6
Vandad	6	13/2
Battle Point	11	11
John Ogroats	50	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Big Time Maybe

25.3

OR: 2 Form: 17.6 Odds: 5.7

7/2

2nd

Alfred Cove

13.9

OR: 1 Form: 3.5 Odds: 9.4

15/8

3rd

Battle Point

7.5

OR: 0 Form: 5.6 Odds: 1.9

Im Mable

6.7

OR: 1.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

9/2

Vandad

5.3

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Ellie Piper

3.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.3

John Ogroats

2.6

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Vandad	59	70	46
Big Time Maybe	58	68	60
John Ogroats	58	68	65
Im Mable	56	69	60
Alfred Cove	54	73	42
Battle Point	50	72	—
Ellie Piper	47	74	67

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Alfred Cove	4d ago	Quick return
Big Time Maybe	7d ago	Quick return
Im Mable	7d ago	Quick return
John Ogroats	14d ago	Fit
Battle Point	17d ago	Fit
Vandad	19d ago	Fit
Ellie Piper	29d ago	Fit