FBC Manby Bowdler Novices' Handicap Chase – Worcester

Worcester

13:58

FBC Manby Bowdler Novices' Handicap Chase

Date 2023-06-28

Distance 2m4f

Class Class 5

Going Good

Type Chase

Surface Turf

Age Band 5yo+

Prize £3,406

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1	Swapped Bay J:Nico de Boinville T:Nicky Henderson	J:Nico de Boinville T:Nicky Henderson	168	p	266-62	100	109	89	28d	—	—	-12	23.9	0.34/1	11/8 42%
Second on Newton Abbot chasing debut and that puts him firmly in the reckoning
4	Lough Carra Bay J:Gavin Sheehan T:Jennie Candlish	J:Gavin Sheehan T:Jennie Candlish	157	tv	34P-62	89	105	82	30d	—	—	0	13.8	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Similar level of form in both chase starts last month; visor needs to provoke improvement
2	Cotton End Grey J:Finn Lambert(5) T:Sheila Lewis	J:Finn Lambert(5) T:Sheila Lewis	165	—	335P-3	97	110	102	20d	—	—	+6	18.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Fair third at Uttoxeter latest but not the force of old; others preferred
7	Miss Antipova Bay J:James Best T:Martin Keighley	J:James Best T:Martin Keighley	146	—	PP2-22	78	105	94	16d	—	—	-1	10.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Maiden who has been runner-up in latest three chases; go close again
9	Paddys Return Bay J:Sean Bowen T:Peter Bowen	J:Sean Bowen T:Peter Bowen	142	ht	008/P	74	-	-	33d	—	—	+1	7.9	2.75/1	12 8%
Backed for last month's chasing debut but pulled up; hood back and tongue-strap on
3	Barely Famous Bay J:Stan Sheppard T:Matt Sheppard	J:Stan Sheppard T:Matt Sheppard	158	t	112-65	90	-	-	16d	—	—	+5	11.7	3.25/1	14 7%
Three hurdle wins but well beaten in both stable starts; chasing debut
6	Deer Hunter Bay J:Tabitha Worsley(3) T:Danni Oneill	J:Tabitha Worsley(3) T:Danni Oneill	149	—	PP-P36	81	-	-	25d	—	—	+3	9.7	2.75/1	12 8%
Has run passably here over hurdles lately but more needed on chasing debut
5	Coconut Tudor Bay J:James Davies T:Derek Shaw	J:James Davies T:Derek Shaw	154	—	PP5P5-	86	95	77	66d	—	—	+5	10.4	3.25/1	14 7%
Maiden; well beaten in four British starts; stable debut
8	Ace Time Bay J:Jack Quinlan T:J R Jenkins	J:Jack Quinlan T:J R Jenkins	142	—	6P8PP-	74	-	-	73d	—	—	+5	6.5	24.75/1	100 1%
Two hurdle wins but out of form in last 18 months; chasing debut

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Swapped	11/8	5/4	5/4	11/8	5/4
Lough Carra	5	5	9/2	5	5
Cotton End	13/2	13/2	11/2	13/2	13/2
Miss Antipova	7	13/2	6	13/2	13/2
Paddys Return	10	11	10	11	12
Barely Famous	14	12	11	12	12
Deer Hunter	12	12	10	12	12
Coconut Tudor	14	14	14	14	14
Ace Time	100	80	50	80	80

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Swapped

23.9

OR: 12.5 Form: 0 Odds: 11.4

11/8

2nd

Cotton End

18.1

OR: 11.8 Form: 3 Odds: 3.3

13/2

3rd

Lough Carra

13.8

OR: 9.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4

9/2

Barely Famous

11.7

OR: 10 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Coconut Tudor

10.4

OR: 9 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Miss Antipova

10.1

OR: 7 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Deer Hunter

9.7

OR: 7.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

Paddys Return

7.9

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

Ace Time

6.5

OR: 6 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

100

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Swapped	100	109	89
Cotton End	97	110	102
Barely Famous	90	—	—
Lough Carra	89	105	82
Coconut Tudor	86	95	77
Deer Hunter	81	—	—
Miss Antipova	78	105	94
Paddys Return	74	—	—
Ace Time	74	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Miss Antipova	16d ago	Fit
Barely Famous	16d ago	Fit
Cotton End	20d ago	Fit
Deer Hunter	25d ago	Fit
Swapped	28d ago	Fit
Lough Carra	30d ago	Fit
Paddys Return	33d ago	Fit
Coconut Tudor	66d ago	Fresh
Ace Time	73d ago	Fresh