Long Harbour Derek Lucie-Smith British EBF Fillies' Handicap

Ascot

16:00

Date 2023-07-14

Distance 1m3f211y

Class Class 3

Going Good To Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £27,000

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (1)	Sunset Point Bay J:Harry Davies(3) T:Charlie Appleby	J:Harry Davies(3) T:Charlie Appleby	131	—	51-162	92	94	84	48d	—	—	-3	16.2	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Largely progressive; ran well in fillies' handicap at Goodwood most recently; solid chance
6 (9)	Alpina Express Chestnut J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	130	—	557111	91	93	87	18d	—	—	+21	36.7	0.75/1	4 25%
3-3 since handicapping and switched to turf; upped in grade but may well progress further
1 (5)	Sumo Sam Grey J:Billy Loughnane(3) T:Paul & Oliver Cole	J:Billy Loughnane(3) T:Paul & Oliver Cole	135	t	1-2538	96	94	92	23d	—	—	+9	22.1	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Possibilities back down in class on handicap debut, with Billy Loughnane taking off 3lb
3 (6)	Trust The Stars Bay J:Hector Crouch T:Ralph Beckett	J:Hector Crouch T:Ralph Beckett	131	b	1-36	92	87	88	40d	—	—	+5	22.5	0.75/1	4 25%
Could easily bounce back if she takes well to first-time headgear; not fully exposed
NR (8)	Dubai Crystal Bay J:Ray Dawson T:K R Burke	J:Ray Dawson T:K R Burke	121	—	-61224	82	96	92	14d	—	—	+5	22	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Has been performing well over 1m2f while shaping as if 1m4f will suit; interesting
NR (2)	Divina Grace Bay J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Rae Guest	J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Rae Guest	120	—	935-12	81	95	98	21d	—	—	0	10.8	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Two sound performances this term; now upped in grade but may improve further
2 (4)	Tamilla Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:William Haggas	J:Cieren Fallon T:William Haggas	135	—	114-79	84	93	70	19d	—	—	+2	11.2	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Sole 4yo in the field; trainer has a respectable record in this contest
5 (7)	Theres The Door Bay J:Richard Kingscote T:David Evans	J:Richard Kingscote T:David Evans	130	—	42-127	91	95	75	29d	—	—	+4	12.8	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Recorded a clearcut success at Doncaster on last handicap attempt; on tougher mark now
7 (10)	Ermesinde Bay J:Connor Planas(5) T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	J:Connor Planas(5) T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	127	—	1236	88	89	71	33d	—	—	+13	18.5	3.75/1	16 6%
Hit with another rise in her mark but Connor Planas takes off 5lb; handicap debut
8 (3)	Greysful Storm Grey J:Jason Watson T:Darryll Holland	J:Jason Watson T:Darryll Holland	126	—	57-010	87	91	76	22d	—	—	+5	10.9	3.25/1	14 7%
Scored easily at Newbury (strong form) on handicap debut; tough task at Royal Ascot since

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Sunset Point	10/3	3	3	10/3	10/3
Alpina Express	4	4	4	4	4
Sumo Sam	5	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Trust The Stars	4	4	4	4	4
Dubai Crystal	8	7	15/2	15/2	SP
Divina Grace	7	13/2	6	13/2	13/2
Tamilla	8	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Theres The Door	8	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Ermesinde	16	16	14	16	14
Greysful Storm	14	12	12	12	12

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Alpina Express

36.7

OR: 10.3 Form: 22 Odds: 4.4

2nd

Trust The Stars

22.5

OR: 10.5 Form: 7 Odds: 5

3rd

Sumo Sam

22.1

OR: 11.5 Form: 7 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Dubai Crystal

OR: 8 Form: 9 Odds: 5

15/2

Ermesinde

18.5

OR: 9.5 Form: 7.6 Odds: 1.4

Sunset Point

16.2

OR: 10.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

10/3

Theres The Door

12.8

OR: 10.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

15/2

Tamilla

11.2

OR: 8.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

15/2

Greysful Storm

10.9

OR: 9.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Divina Grace

10.8

OR: 7.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Sumo Sam	96	94	92
Sunset Point	92	94	84
Trust The Stars	92	87	88
Alpina Express	91	93	87
Theres The Door	91	95	75
Ermesinde	88	89	71
Greysful Storm	87	91	76
Tamilla	84	93	70
Dubai Crystal	82	96	92
Divina Grace	81	95	98

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Dubai Crystal	14d ago	Fit
Alpina Express	18d ago	Fit
Tamilla	19d ago	Fit
Divina Grace	21d ago	Fit
Greysful Storm	22d ago	Fit
Sumo Sam	23d ago	Fit
Theres The Door	29d ago	Fit
Ermesinde	33d ago	Fit
Trust The Stars	40d ago	Fit
Sunset Point	48d ago	Fresh