Aspen Insurance Handicap – Sandown

Sandown

16:20

Aspen Insurance Handicap

Date 2023-07-27

Distance 1m1f209y

Class Class 4

Going Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £6,281

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
NR (11)	Flyawaydream Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	J:NON-RUNNER T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	132	—	2123-3	79	96	-	21d	—	—	-42	30.3	—	—
Creditable, never-nearer third of 13 at Kempton (1m, AW) on reappearance three weeks ago
3 (12)	Tuxedo Junction Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:James Fanshawe	J:Oisin Murphy T:James Fanshawe	137	p	6-3023	84	95	78	23d	—	—	-4	13.7	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Ran creditably at 1m2f for minor honours in three of four starts this term; first headgear
1 (6)	Sweet Reward Bay J:Rob Hornby T:Jonathan Portman	J:Rob Hornby T:Jonathan Portman	137	—	-85251	84	94	82	22d	—	—	+11	25	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Good course record has been dented, including penultimate start; 2nd and 1st either side
7 (14)	Prophets Dream Grey J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Sir Mark Todd	J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Sir Mark Todd	135	t	52-119	82	93	81	32d	—	—	-1	11.6	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Won twice from the front over 1m2f in May; disappointing show last month; now tongue tied
11 (8)	Botas Brown J:Harry Davies(3) T:Jim Boyle	J:Harry Davies(3) T:Jim Boyle	131	—	413032	78	95	83	13d	—	—	+8	20.6	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Solid start to British career with two places at 1m; needs to prove himself over this far
NR (7)	Silastar Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Gary Moore	J:NON-RUNNER T:Gary Moore	128	—	-62116	75	-	-	29d	—	—	-30	39.8	—	—
Dual 1m2f winner (on soft and good) this spring, latterly at this track; below form latest
5 (1)	Croeso Cymraeg Bay J:Joshua Bryan T:James Evans	J:Joshua Bryan T:James Evans	136	—	-22941	83	93	55	12d	—	—	+13	23.8	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Last three wins were over 1m4f (latest 12 days ago) but he's in each-way calculations
10 (2)	Sayf Al Dawla Bay J:Robert Havlin T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	J:Robert Havlin T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	131	—	24133/	78	92	-	632d	—	—	+12	20.6	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Unraced since 2021 but has a competitive mark if returning on song
6 (10)	Wind Your Neck In Chestnut J:Hollie Doyle T:David Evans	J:Hollie Doyle T:David Evans	136	—	70-288	83	95	74	13d	—	—	+3	10.4	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Won twice on soft as 2yo; only once (2023 return) in the shake-up from six starts since
4 (5)	Paris Lights Bay J:William Buick T:George Boughey	J:William Buick T:George Boughey	136	tp	81-292	83	95	68	38d	—	—	+3	10.4	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Running well at 1m2f on Lingfield AW, with a lesser show on turf (1m4f) penultimate start
NR (4)	Thebeautifulgame Bay J:Andrea Atzeni T:Tom Clover	J:Andrea Atzeni T:Tom Clover	131	—	2236-7	78	93	72	87d	—	—	+5	7.9	6.00/1	25 4%
Consistent on turf last season up to 1m2f; well below form on reappearance this May
12 (9)	Stately Home Grey J:Cieren Fallon T:Shaun Lycett	J:Cieren Fallon T:Shaun Lycett	131	—	-15556	78	93	52	12d	—	—	+6	10.1	5.25/1	22 5%
Close fifth of 15 in May came over 1m2f; failed to back that up when next seen 12 days ago
14 (3)	Solanna Chestnut J:Darragh Keenan T:John Butler	J:Darragh Keenan T:John Butler	126	—	531147	73	94	82	41d	—	1W/1P 1 run	+12	15.2	6.75/1	28 4%
Failed to fire on latest outing but perhaps good to firm ground played a part
2 (13)	Cap Francais Bay J:Aidan Keeley(3) T:Ian Williams	J:Aidan Keeley(3) T:Ian Williams	137	v	00-089	84	92	53	27d	—	—	+7	9.2	8.00/1	33 3%
Out of form this season; wore first headgear (cheekpieces) last time, now sports a visor

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Flyawaydream	SP	SP	SP	SP	SP
Tuxedo Junction	4	4	10/3	4	4/1
Sweet Reward	5	5	9/2	5	9/2
Prophets Dream	6	11/2	11/2	11/2	5/1
Botas	6	11/2	5	11/2	5/1
Silastar	SP	SP	SP	SP	SP
Croeso Cymraeg	7	13/2	6	7/1	15/2
Sayf Al Dawla	15/2	8	8	8	17/2
Wind Your Neck In	10	9	9	10	10/1
Paris Lights	10	10	9	10	11/1
Thebeautifulgame	25	25	22	25	25
Stately Home	22	22	20	22	22
Solanna	28	28	25	28	25/1
Cap Francais	33	33	28	33	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Silastar

39.8

OR: 6.3 Form: 13.5 Odds: 20

—

2nd

Flyawaydream

30.3

OR: 7.3 Form: 3 Odds: 20

—

3rd

Sweet Reward

OR: 8.5 Form: 12.5 Odds: 4

9/2

Croeso Cymraeg

23.8

OR: 8.3 Form: 12.5 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Botas

20.6

OR: 7 Form: 10 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Sayf Al Dawla

20.6

OR: 7 Form: 11.1 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Solanna

15.2

OR: 5.8 Form: 8.6 Odds: 0.9

Tuxedo Junction

13.7

OR: 8.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

4/1

Prophets Dream

11.6

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Wind Your Neck In

10.4

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

10/1

Paris Lights

10.4

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

11/1

Stately Home

10.1

OR: 7 Form: 2 Odds: 1.1

Cap Francais

9.2

OR: 8.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Thebeautifulgame

7.9

OR: 7 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Tuxedo Junction	84	95	78
Sweet Reward	84	94	82
Cap Francais	84	92	53
Croeso Cymraeg	83	93	55
Wind Your Neck In	83	95	74
Paris Lights	83	95	68
Prophets Dream	82	93	81
Flyawaydream	79	96	—
Botas	78	95	83
Sayf Al Dawla	78	92	—
Thebeautifulgame	78	93	72
Stately Home	78	93	52
Silastar	75	—	—
Solanna	73	94	82

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Croeso Cymraeg	12d ago	Quick return
Stately Home	12d ago	Quick return
Botas	13d ago	Quick return
Wind Your Neck In	13d ago	Quick return
Flyawaydream	21d ago	Fit
Sweet Reward	22d ago	Fit
Tuxedo Junction	23d ago	Fit
Cap Francais	27d ago	Fit
Silastar	29d ago	Fit
Prophets Dream	32d ago	Fit
Paris Lights	38d ago	Fit
Solanna	41d ago	Fit
Thebeautifulgame	87d ago	Fresh
Sayf Al Dawla	632d ago	Long break