Tennent's Lager Handicap (Div II) – Ayr

Ayr

16:35

Tennent's Lager Handicap (Div II)

Date 2023-09-22

Distance 1m

Class Class 5

Going Good To Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,187

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (9)	Ayr Poet Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	136	p	221132	66	77	70	22d	—	—	+8	25.1	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Dual course winner this summer and ran right up to best when second at Carlisle last time
3 (13)	Alpine Sierra Brown J:Joe Fanning T:Jim Goldie	J:Joe Fanning T:Jim Goldie	137	—	250653	67	79	64	21d	—	—	-4	11.7	1.38/1	11/2 15%
C&D winner on seasonal debut in June and seemingly back on the groove on latest outing
NR (2)	End Zone Bay J:TBC T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J: T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	137	b	484391	67	79	73	1d	—	—	+7	19.4	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Back in form with narrow 7f course win yesterday; respected under 5lb penalty
11 (11)	Zumaaty Bay J:Ben Curtis T:Iain Jardine	J:Ben Curtis T:Iain Jardine	126	—	189503	56	78	41	17d	—	—	-4	7.8	1.50/1	7 14%
Back in good form on latest outing and testing ground will make him of strong interest
5 (10)	Destined Bay J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	135	p	-15244	69	76	70	21d	—	—	+3	11.8	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Yet to run a bad race after seven starts and this step up in trip is well worth a go
2 (8)	Tuscan Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:David Omeara	J:Daniel Tudhope T:David Omeara	139	v	809889	69	76	56	20d	—	—	-1	7.1	2.25/1	10 10%
Unplaced all eight starts for new stable this year and needs to turn a corner
12 (6)	Chinese Spirit Grey J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Linda Perratt	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Linda Perratt	124	—	754133	54	76	67	6d	—	—	+6	13.2	2.50/1	11 9%
Arrives in decent form but will probably find younger rivals better handicapped
7 (5)	Little Ted Chestnut J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	134	p	714130	64	75	48	1d	—	—	+7	14.7	2.75/1	12 8%
Two wins this summer; on fairly tough mark now; dropped out here yesterday
1 (12)	Dandy Maestro Chestnut J:Jason Hart T:Richard Spencer	J:Jason Hart T:Richard Spencer	140	tp	652949	70	76	41	43d	—	—	0	9	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Second on soft ground in May but generally disappointing this season; new headgear tried
6 (4)	No Barrier Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	134	p	834227	68	76	70	41d	—	—	+7	12.8	3.25/1	14 7%
Disappointed last time and now 0-12 but went close off this mark on penultimate start
8 (3)	Tremendous Times Bay J:Clifford Lee T:Michael Dods	J:Clifford Lee T:Michael Dods	133	—	-28276	67	78	66	21d	—	—	+4	9.1	4.25/1	18 6%
Ran big race in defeat at Carlisle in July but two lesser efforts have followed
10 (14)	Carlton Brown J:William Pyle(5) T:Tracy Waggott	J:William Pyle(5) T:Tracy Waggott	128	—	259064	62	76	66	9d	—	—	-1	4.6	3.75/1	16 6%
Initially very disappointing for new stable this summer but latest run was much better
14 (1)	Two Rivers Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	J:Andrew Mullen T:Iain Jardine	117	tp	076365	51	73	66	11d	—	—	-1	3	5.25/1	22 5%
11-race maiden; recent efforts offer come hope but he's not the percentage call here
13 (7)	Rogue Force Bay J:Paddy Mathers T:R Mike Smith	J:Paddy Mathers T:R Mike Smith	123	—	689993	53	77	57	5d	—	—	+1	4.6	6.75/1	28 4%
Didn't run badly at Musselburgh on Sunday, but that was just a 0-55 contest

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Ayr Poet	9/2	4	7/2	4	7/2
Alpine Sierra	11/2	5	5	5	5
End Zone	13/2	13/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Zumaaty	6	7	7	7	7
Destined	8	15/2	17/2	17/2	9
Tuscan	10	9	17/2	9	10
Chinese Spirit	10	9	10	10	11
Little Ted	12	11	11	11	11
Dandy Maestro	9	8	17/2	17/2	8
No Barrier	14	12	12	12	14
Tremendous Times	16	16	16	16	18
Carlton	14	14	14	14	16
Two Rivers	18	20	20	20	22
Rogue Force	28	22	28	28	28

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Ayr Poet

25.1

OR: 4 Form: 16.1 Odds: 5

9/2

2nd

End Zone

19.4

OR: 4.3 Form: 11.5 Odds: 3.6

13/2

3rd

Little Ted

14.7

OR: 3.5 Form: 9.1 Odds: 2.1

Chinese Spirit

13.2

OR: 1 Form: 10.1 Odds: 2.1

No Barrier

12.8

OR: 4.5 Form: 6.6 Odds: 1.7

Destined

11.8

OR: 4.8 Form: 4.5 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Alpine Sierra

11.7

OR: 4.3 Form: 3 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Tremendous Times

9.1

OR: 4.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.4

Dandy Maestro

OR: 5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Zumaaty

7.8

OR: 1.5 Form: 3 Odds: 3.3

Tuscan

7.1

OR: 4.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

Carlton

4.6

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Rogue Force

4.6

OR: 0.8 Form: 3 Odds: 0.9

Two Rivers

OR: 0.3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.2

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Dandy Maestro	70	76	41
Destined	69	76	70
Tuscan	69	76	56
No Barrier	68	76	70
Alpine Sierra	67	79	64
End Zone	67	79	73
Tremendous Times	67	78	66
Ayr Poet	66	77	70
Little Ted	64	75	48
Carlton	62	76	66
Zumaaty	56	78	41
Chinese Spirit	54	76	67
Rogue Force	53	77	57
Two Rivers	51	73	66

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
End Zone	1d ago	Quick return
Little Ted	1d ago	Quick return
Rogue Force	5d ago	Quick return
Chinese Spirit	6d ago	Quick return
Carlton	9d ago	Quick return
Two Rivers	11d ago	Quick return
Zumaaty	17d ago	Fit
Tuscan	20d ago	Fit
Alpine Sierra	21d ago	Fit
Destined	21d ago	Fit
Tremendous Times	21d ago	Fit
Ayr Poet	22d ago	Fit
No Barrier	41d ago	Fit
Dandy Maestro	43d ago	Fit