Sky Sports Racing HD Virgin 519 Nursery Handicap – Wolverhampton (AW)

Wolverhampton (AW)

17:30

Sky Sports Racing HD Virgin 519 Nursery Handicap

Date 2023-09-25

Distance 7f36y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,245

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
9 (8)	Tropical Air Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Charlie Johnston	J:Jack Mitchell T:Charlie Johnston	128	—	75331	58	72	67	9d	—	—	-1	22.9	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Enjoyed the run of the race last time and this is tougher off an 8lb higher mark
6 (2)	Diddy Man Bay J:Richard Kingscote T:Tom Dascombe	J:Richard Kingscote T:Tom Dascombe	130	p	605382	60	76	60	7d	—	—	-10	17.4	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Came well clear of the rest last Monday, so can only look fairly treated off the same mark
1 (7)	Bulldog Drummond Bay J:Kevin Stott T:George Boughey	J:Kevin Stott T:George Boughey	137	p	9334	67	67	43	12d	—	—	-3	12.3	1.13/1	9/2 18%
1m beyond him latest; should do better down in trip if settling in first-time headgear
4 (9)	Irrelevant Chestnut J:Finley Marsh T:Richard Hughes	J:Finley Marsh T:Richard Hughes	132	b	887415	62	75	64	12d	—	—	+1	13.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Blinkers have helped; return to 7f now back on the AW should work in his favour
2 (5)	Kandy House Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Charlie Johnston	J:Oisin Murphy T:Charlie Johnston	134	—	568233	64	72	52	12d	—	—	+3	14.4	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Longer trip should be fine both on pedigree and recent evidence; is one to consider
8 (6)	Insignia Bay J:John Fahy T:Clive Cox	J:John Fahy T:Clive Cox	128	—	665	58	66	-	21d	—	—	-3	3.9	3.25/1	14 7%
More from a wide position latest; starts nursery life at a lowly level; watch the market
7 (1)	Justahunch Bay J:J F Egan T:Darryll Holland	J:J F Egan T:Darryll Holland	129	—	4466	59	70	-	35d	—	—	0	3.1	6.75/1	28 4%
Only run in sprints and been inclined to pull hard on his two cracks at 6f; needs more
5 (10)	Polly The Rocket Chestnut J:Shane Gray T:Craig Lidster	J:Shane Gray T:Craig Lidster	131	—	3663	61	70	34	14d	—	—	+5	7.4	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Looked ready for another crack at this longer trip when doing better on her nursery debut
3 (4)	Havana Touch Grey J:Dylan Hogan T:John Butler	J:Dylan Hogan T:John Butler	132	—	0698	62	66	27	26d	—	—	+1	3.6	9.75/1	40 3%
Huge prices and well beaten in four runs to date; market will likely be the best guide
10 (3)	Fast Love Bay J:Duran Fentiman T:Tim Easterby	J:Duran Fentiman T:Tim Easterby	126	—	684300	56	72	-	18d	—	—	+2	3.4	19.75/1	80 1%
Still to get involved in a finish and has gone the wrong way since handicapping

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Tropical Air	11/4	5/2	5/2	5/2	5/2
Diddy Man	9/4	9/4	9/4	9/4	5/2
Bulldog Drummond	4	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Irrelevant	13/2	6	6	6	6
Kandy House	8	7	7	15/2	15/2
Insignia	14	14	12	14	14
Justahunch	25	28	25	28	28
Polly The Rocket	28	33	33	33/1	33
Havana Touch	40	40	40	40	40
Fast Love	80	80	80	80	80

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Tropical Air

22.9

OR: 2 Form: 13.6 Odds: 7.3

11/4

2nd

Diddy Man

17.4

OR: 2.5 Form: 6.5 Odds: 8.4

5/2

3rd

Kandy House

14.4

OR: 3.5 Form: 7.6 Odds: 3.3

15/2

Irrelevant

13.6

OR: 3 Form: 7 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Bulldog Drummond

12.3

OR: 4.3 Form: 3.6 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Polly The Rocket

7.4

OR: 2.8 Form: 3.9 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Insignia

3.9

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

Havana Touch

3.6

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Fast Love

3.4

OR: 1.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0.4

Justahunch

3.1

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Bulldog Drummond	67	67	43
Kandy House	64	72	52
Irrelevant	62	75	64
Havana Touch	62	66	27
Polly The Rocket	61	70	34
Diddy Man	60	76	60
Justahunch	59	70	—
Tropical Air	58	72	67
Insignia	58	66	—
Fast Love	56	72	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Diddy Man	7d ago	Quick return
Tropical Air	9d ago	Quick return
Bulldog Drummond	12d ago	Quick return
Irrelevant	12d ago	Quick return
Kandy House	12d ago	Quick return
Polly The Rocket	14d ago	Fit
Fast Love	18d ago	Fit
Insignia	21d ago	Fit
Havana Touch	26d ago	Fit
Justahunch	35d ago	Fit

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Wolverhampton (AW) over 7f36y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 8 draws with historical results at this course and distance.