New Central Era Fillies' Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

19:30

New Central Era Fillies' Handicap

Date 2023-09-29

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,873

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (5)	Turquoise Diamond Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:William Haggas	J:Cieren Fallon T:William Haggas	130	—	9-4351	70	87	-	18d	—	—	-14	13.4	0.50/1	2/1 33%
Readily saw off five rivals at Brighton this month; 6lb higher but still open to progress
1 (8)	Zapphire Bay J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Julie Camacho	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Julie Camacho	136	—	3-521	76	89	29	48d	—	—	-6	14.8	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Form of her Haydock win has been franked; promise over C&D; could have more to come
6 (1)	Abbeys Dream Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	J:Hollie Doyle T:Archie Watson	132	p	537241	72	83	60	28d	—	—	+9	22.6	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Two C&D wins this winter; back on the up in cheekpieces latest; still feasibly treated
9 (9)	Carlton And Co Bay J:Lewis Chalkley(7) T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Lewis Chalkley(7) T:Michael & David Easterby	126	—	061755	63	87	53	14d	—	—	-5	10.7	1.38/1	11/2 15%
C&D winner last month; less good since but likes it here and should make a bold bid
2 (6)	Misty Blues Bay J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	J:David Allan T:Tim Easterby	135	tp	25-600	75	79	-	36d	—	—	-1	8.9	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Useful 2yo but three heavy defeats this year; down in class with a tongue-tie added; risky
3 (4)	Mawada Brown J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	J:Oisin Orr T:Richard Fahey	133	—	332-	73	79	-	374d	—	—	+9	16.3	3.25/1	14 7%
Similar solid form in three 2yo runs on turf; absent 374 days (had wind op); check betting
8 (2)	Alexas Princess Chestnut J:Shane Gray T:K R Burke	J:Shane Gray T:K R Burke	130	—	1630-5	70	81	-	16d	—	—	+2	6.2	6.00/1	25 4%
Claims on the pick of her 2yo form and she should be sharper for her recent reappearance
4 (7)	Concon Candy Grey J:Luke Morris T:Archie Watson	J:Luke Morris T:Archie Watson	133	p	334	73	81	43	32d	—	—	+7	10.1	8.00/1	33 3%
Promise in two AW runs; well held on turf debut; unexposed; yard also run Abbey's Dream
NR (3)	Just Janet Bay J:Jason Watson T:David Omeara	J:Jason Watson T:David Omeara	133	—	140865	73	83	38	10d	—	—	0	7.8	2.75/1	12 8%
Conditions shouldn't be an issue but she needs to step up on her recent efforts

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Turquoise Diamond	2	15/8	15/8	2	2/1
Zapphire	11/4	11/4	11/4	11/4	11/4
Abbeys Dream	5	5	9/2	5	11/2
Carlton And Co	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Misty Blues	8	8	7	8	17/2
Mawada	14	14	12	14	14
Alexas Princess	20	25	18	16	20
Concon Candy	33	33	33	33	33
Just Janet	12	12	12	12	12

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Abbeys Dream

22.6

OR: 5.5 Form: 13.1 Odds: 4

11/2

2nd

Mawada

16.3

OR: 5.8 Form: 8.6 Odds: 1.9

3rd

Zapphire

14.8

OR: 6.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 6.2

11/4

Turquoise Diamond

13.4

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 8.4

2/1

Carlton And Co

10.7

OR: 3.3 Form: 3 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Concon Candy

10.1

OR: 5.8 Form: 3.6 Odds: 0.7

Misty Blues

8.9

OR: 6.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

17/2

Just Janet

7.8

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2

Alexas Princess

6.2

OR: 5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Zapphire	76	89	29
Misty Blues	75	79	—
Mawada	73	79	—
Concon Candy	73	81	43
Just Janet	73	83	38
Abbeys Dream	72	83	60
Turquoise Diamond	70	87	—
Alexas Princess	70	81	—
Carlton And Co	63	87	53

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Just Janet	10d ago	Quick return
Carlton And Co	14d ago	Fit
Alexas Princess	16d ago	Fit
Turquoise Diamond	18d ago	Fit
Abbeys Dream	28d ago	Fit
Concon Candy	32d ago	Fit
Misty Blues	36d ago	Fit
Zapphire	48d ago	Fresh
Mawada	374d ago	Long break

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Alexas Princess	Prominent
Carlton And Co	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 9 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.