bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) – Newmarket

Newmarket

15:40

bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap)

Date 2023-09-30

Distance 1m1f

Class Class 2

Going Good To Firm

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £103,080

Runners (35)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
23 (25)	Greek Order Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Harry & Roger Charlton	J:Oisin Murphy T:Harry & Roger Charlton	121	—	32-311	95	118	87	42d	—	—	-6	18.5	0.69/1	11/4 27%
2-2 in handicaps and has been well backed for this race; firmly in calculations
19 (34)	Merlin The Wizard Bay J:William Buick T:Harry & Roger Charlton	J:William Buick T:Harry & Roger Charlton	122	—	-51151	96	113	104	49d	—	—	+23	32	2.75/1	12 8%
Stayed on well for cosy 1m win last time; this unexposed 3yo is open to further progress
12 (22)	Liberty Lane Bay J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	127	—	-27041	101	114	99	14d	—	—	+18	26.1	2.75/1	12 8%
Rallied to win 1m handicap at Doncaster and this unexposed 3yo could have more to offer
2 (15)	Saga Grey Roan J:Ryan Moore T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Ryan Moore T:John & Thady Gosden	137	b	04-253	106	116	90	85d	—	—	+8	16.2	3.25/1	14 7%
Two of his best runs have come in big-field handicaps; ideal scenario and interesting
25 (29)	Majestic Bay J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Jack Channon	J:Benoit De La Sayette T:Jack Channon	120	—	942404	89	118	112	51d	—	—	+6	13.2	3.25/1	14 7%
Won this last year; mixed form this season but clearly well suited by today's scenario
10 (1)	Oviedo Bay J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Edward Bethell	129	—	-61932	103	114	100	35d	—	—	+18	25.3	3.25/1	14 7%
3yo with good record in handicaps, with a win and a creditable 2nd; could be thereabouts
33 (31)	Crack Shot Bay J:Georgia Dobie(3) T:Ed Walker	J:Georgia Dobie(3) T:Ed Walker	114	—	91251	88	115	90	32d	—	—	+21	26.6	4.25/1	18 6%
Won at Newbury last month on second handicap start and this 3yo could continue to progress
1 (35)	Astro King Bay J:Richard Kingscote T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	J:Richard Kingscote T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	138	—	0-4021	107	115	102	35d	—	—	+11	15.6	5.25/1	22 5%
Better than ever for new yard; up 5lb to career-high mark but could be bang there
5 (28)	Bopedro Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:David Omeara	J:Daniel Tudhope T:David Omeara	133	—	730019	102	117	104	21d	—	—	+17	22	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Mixed form this year but Newmarket has brought out the best in him; he's one to consider
6 (32)	Haunted Dream Grey J:Morgan Cole(5) T:Ed Dunlop	J:Morgan Cole(5) T:Ed Dunlop	133	—	102323	102	115	101	35d	—	—	+20	23.6	6.00/1	25 4%
Running really well in defeat in hot handicaps at about 1m2f; solid each-way contender
15 (16)	Dual Identity Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:William Knight	J:Marco Ghiani T:William Knight	126	—	745001	95	119	101	28d	—	—	+18	22.6	4.25/1	18 6%
Fine third in this last year and bolted up at Sandown most recently; has to be respected
9 (12)	Killybegs Warrior Bay J:James Doyle T:Charlie Johnston	J:James Doyle T:Charlie Johnston	129	—	901044	103	113	102	20d	—	—	+14	17.2	6.00/1	25 4%
Handicapper appears to have him about right but he likes Newmarket; not ruled out each-way
21 (19)	Terwada Bay J:Tom Marquand T:Ed Walker	J:Tom Marquand T:Ed Walker	121	—	34117	95	116	82	37d	—	—	+21	24.9	6.75/1	28 4%
Had been making good progress but finished well down the field in yesterday Cambridgeshire
8 (24)	Eagles Way Chestnut J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	130	—	11-274	99	114	97	28d	—	—	+10	13.1	6.75/1	28 4%
Not helped by wide draw when fourth at Sandown latest; could still be capable of better
14 (18)	Paradias Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Alan King	J:Rossa Ryan T:Alan King	126	—	-21545	95	116	107	36d	—	—	+13	16	8.00/1	33 3%
Narrow win at Sandown in June; has run pretty well since but improvement is needed here
17 (4)	Dutch Decoy Chestnut J:Neil Callan T:Charlie Johnston	J:Neil Callan T:Charlie Johnston	124	—	231360	93	115	108	14d	—	—	+13	16.8	7.00/1	28/1 3%
String of good runs before recent blip at Doncaster and he's not written off
16 (9)	Stay Well Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:Hughie Morrison	J:Kieran Shoemark T:Hughie Morrison	124	—	830043	93	115	102	28d	—	—	+13	14.9	12.25/1	50 2%
Solid efforts off this mark the last twice but others are more compelling
31 (20)	Zozimus Bay J:Aiden Brookes(5) T:David Omeara	J:Aiden Brookes(5) T:David Omeara	115	v	345622	84	117	112	21d	—	—	+15	17.7	9.75/1	40 3%
Modest strike-rate but in good form in this visor and he's not ruled out each-way
20 (11)	Storm Catcher Bay J:Shane Foley T:Simon Pearce	J:Shane Foley T:Simon Pearce	122	—	147231	91	113	87	30d	—	—	+23	25.4	12.25/1	50 2%
Steadily progressive and won last time (1m2f, AW) but this rise in grade may find him out
11 (6)	Akhu Najla Bay J:David Egan T:Roger Varian	J:David Egan T:Roger Varian	127	b	138-40	96	115	76	37d	—	—	+10	12.2	12.25/1	50 2%
Promising comeback at Ascot; failed to build on it at York but of interest now up in trip
27 (13)	Faylaq Bay J:William Pyle(5) T:Jim Goldie	J:William Pyle(5) T:Jim Goldie	117	—	233033	86	116	95	23d	—	—	+14	16.2	12.25/1	50 2%
Some good runs this year over 1m3f-2m but losing sequence goes back to September 2019
29 (27)	Carolus Magnus Bay J:James Sullivan T:Michael & David Easterby	J:James Sullivan T:Michael & David Easterby	116	t	0-6959	85	113	33	23d	—	—	+7	9.3	16.25/1	66 2%
Hint of spark last month but well beaten since; back to having something to prove
22 (30)	Arqoob Bay J:Kaiya Fraser(5) T:William Jarvis	J:Kaiya Fraser(5) T:William Jarvis	121	—	430-53	90	114	98	34d	—	—	+8	10.6	16.25/1	66 2%
On a handy mark; two solid runs last month but more pressing cases can be made for others
NR (33)	Botas Brown J:NON-RUNNER T:Jim Boyle	J:NON-RUNNER T:Jim Boyle	114	—	329144	83	112	-	4d	—	—	+13	14.6	24.75/1	100 1%
In good form but 4lb out of the handicap in this hotter race and likely to come up short
3 (14)	Tyrrhenian Sea Grey J:Aidan Keeley(3) T:Roger Varian	J:Aidan Keeley(3) T:Roger Varian	136	—	350-27	105	114	105	182d	—	—	+12	14.3	16.25/1	66 2%
On a competitive mark but off since April and this is a very tough comeback assignment
26 (2)	Bluelight Bay Bay J:Saffie Osborne T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:Saffie Osborne T:Eve Johnson Houghton	119	—	061924	93	113	95	22d	—	—	+16	17.8	16.25/1	66 2%
Not obviously ahead of his mark but the strong pace and extra 1f could both be positives
13 (26)	Eilean Dubh Bay J:Jack Kearney(5) T:K R Burke	J:Jack Kearney(5) T:K R Burke	126	t	031308	95	115	98	37d	—	—	+15	16.8	19.75/1	80 1%
Won six-runner handicap at Hamilton in July but looks vulnerable in this red-hot race
24 (8)	Thunder Ball Chestnut J:Mohammed Tabti(5) T:Paul & Oliver Cole	J:Mohammed Tabti(5) T:Paul & Oliver Cole	121	—	-01462	95	114	77	34d	—	—	+18	19.6	24.75/1	100 1%
Displayed some strong handicap form this year; no surprise to see bold bid from this 3yo
4 (23)	Major Partnership Grey J:Pat Dobbs T:Saeed Bin Suroor	J:Pat Dobbs T:Saeed Bin Suroor	133	t	581627	102	115	98	22d	—	—	+18	19.9	24.75/1	100 1%
Some good runs this year but others may be better treated and he was below par last time
7 (5)	Epic Poet Bay J:George Wood T:Freddie & Martyn Meade	J:George Wood T:Freddie & Martyn Meade	132	—	322-67	101	114	84	57d	—	—	+12	13.1	24.75/1	100 1%
French Listed winner but well beaten this year on his two British starts; has been gelded
30 (7)	Geremia Bay J:George Rooke T:Jim Goldie	J:George Rooke T:Jim Goldie	115	—	361560	84	115	108	36d	—	—	+10	11.9	37.25/1	150 1%
Two wins this year but they were over 1m5f and he ran poorly at Hamilton (1m4f) last time
28 (21)	Thundering Bay J:Jimmy Quinn T:Kevin Ryan	J:Jimmy Quinn T:Kevin Ryan	117	—	504701	86	113	74	9d	—	—	+18	19.4	37.25/1	150 1%
Back to winning ways at Ayr recently but could be vulnerable in this much stronger race
18 (3)	Graignes Bay J:Charles Bishop T:George Baker	J:Charles Bishop T:George Baker	123	ht	411232	92	114	92	17d	—	—	+24	25.5	37.25/1	150 1%
Rejuvenated this year and remains well treated on 2020 form, but more needed in hot race
34 (10)	Wildfell Chestnut J:J F Egan T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	J:J F Egan T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	114	—	111627	88	113	90	16d	—	—	+17	18.4	37.25/1	150 1%
Prolific earlier in year and retains potential; 4lb out of the handicap in this hot race
32 (17)	Sayf Al Dawla Bay J:G Cheyne T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	J:G Cheyne T:Peter Chapple-Hyam	114	—	133/16	83	114	103	8d	—	—	+7	8.6	37.25/1	150 1%
Won in July when back from a long absence but only sixth of seven at Newbury last Friday

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Greek Order	9/4	5/2	11/4	5/2	5/2
Merlin The Wizard	10	10/1	17/2	10	12
Liberty Lane	10	10/1	10	10	12
Saga	12/1	11	12	12/1	14
Majestic	12	11/1	12	12	14
Oviedo	12	12	12	12	14
Crack Shot	14	14	14	14	18
Astro King	20	18	20	20	22
Bopedro	18	20/1	18	20	25/1
Haunted Dream	22	20	20	20	25
Dual Identity	18	16/1	18	18	18
Killybegs Warrior	20	22	20	22	25
Terwada	25	22/1	25	25	28
Eagles Way	25	28	25	28	28
Paradias	33	28	25	28/1	28
Dutch Decoy	28	28/1	28	28	28
Stay Well	50	33	33	33	33
Zozimus	40	28/1	28	33	33
Storm Catcher	50	33	33	33	33
Akhu Najla	50	33/1	40	40	40
Faylaq	50	33/1	33	33	33/1
Carolus Magnus	66	40	40	40	40
Arqoob	66	40/1	33	40	40
Botas	66	100	100	100	100
Tyrrhenian Sea	66	50	33	50	50
Bluelight Bay	66	50	50	50	66
Eilean Dubh	80	66	50	66	66
Thunder Ball	100	66	66	66	66
Major Partnership	100	80	80	80	80
Epic Poet	100	100	80	100	80
Geremia	150	100	66	80/1	100
Thundering	150	80	50	80	80
Graignes	150	80	80	80	80
Wildfell	150	100	100	100	80
Sayf Al Dawla	150	100	100	100	80

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Merlin The Wizard

OR: 11.5 Form: 18 Odds: 2.5

2nd

Crack Shot

26.6

OR: 9.5 Form: 15.5 Odds: 1.6

3rd

Liberty Lane

26.1

OR: 12.8 Form: 11 Odds: 2.4

Graignes

25.5

OR: 10.5 Form: 14.6 Odds: 0.4

150

Storm Catcher

25.4

OR: 10.3 Form: 14.6 Odds: 0.6

Oviedo

25.3

OR: 13.3 Form: 10.1 Odds: 1.9

Terwada

24.9

OR: 11.3 Form: 12.6 Odds: 1.1

Haunted Dream

23.6

OR: 13 Form: 9.5 Odds: 1.1

Dual Identity

22.6

OR: 11.3 Form: 10 Odds: 1.4

Bopedro

OR: 13 Form: 7.6 Odds: 1.4

25/1

Major Partnership

19.9

OR: 13 Form: 6.5 Odds: 0.4

100

Thunder Ball

19.6

OR: 11.3 Form: 8 Odds: 0.4

100

Thundering

19.4

OR: 9 Form: 10 Odds: 0.4

150

Greek Order

18.5

OR: 11.3 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

11/4

Wildfell

18.4

OR: 9.5 Form: 8.5 Odds: 0.4

150

Bluelight Bay

17.8

OR: 10.8 Form: 6.5 Odds: 0.6

Zozimus

17.7

OR: 8.5 Form: 8.5 Odds: 0.7

Killybegs Warrior

17.2

OR: 13.3 Form: 3 Odds: 1

Dutch Decoy

16.8

OR: 10.8 Form: 5.1 Odds: 1

28/1

Eilean Dubh

16.8

OR: 11.3 Form: 5.1 Odds: 0.5

Saga

16.2

OR: 14 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

Faylaq

16.2

OR: 9 Form: 6.6 Odds: 0.6

Paradias

OR: 11.3 Form: 4 Odds: 0.8

Astro King

15.6

OR: 14.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Stay Well

14.9

OR: 10.8 Form: 3.6 Odds: 0.6

Botas

14.6

OR: 8.3 Form: 6 Odds: 0.4

100

Tyrrhenian Sea

14.3

OR: 13.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Majestic

13.2

OR: 9.8 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.9

Eagles Way

13.1

OR: 12.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Epic Poet

13.1

OR: 12.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

100

Akhu Najla

12.2

OR: 11.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

Geremia

11.9

OR: 8.5 Form: 3 Odds: 0.4

150

Arqoob

10.6

OR: 10 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Carolus Magnus

9.3

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Sayf Al Dawla

8.6

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

150

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Astro King	107	115	102
Saga	106	116	90
Tyrrhenian Sea	105	114	105
Oviedo	103	114	100
Killybegs Warrior	103	113	102
Bopedro	102	117	104
Haunted Dream	102	115	101
Major Partnership	102	115	98
Liberty Lane	101	114	99
Epic Poet	101	114	84
Eagles Way	99	114	97
Merlin The Wizard	96	113	104
Akhu Najla	96	115	76
Greek Order	95	118	87
Dual Identity	95	119	101
Terwada	95	116	82
Paradias	95	116	107
Eilean Dubh	95	115	98
Thunder Ball	95	114	77
Dutch Decoy	93	115	108
Stay Well	93	115	102
Bluelight Bay	93	113	95
Graignes	92	114	92
Storm Catcher	91	113	87
Arqoob	90	114	98
Majestic	89	118	112
Crack Shot	88	115	90
Wildfell	88	113	90
Faylaq	86	116	95
Thundering	86	113	74
Carolus Magnus	85	113	33
Zozimus	84	117	112
Geremia	84	115	108
Botas	83	112	—
Sayf Al Dawla	83	114	103

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Botas	4d ago	Quick return
Sayf Al Dawla	8d ago	Quick return
Thundering	9d ago	Quick return
Liberty Lane	14d ago	Fit
Dutch Decoy	14d ago	Fit
Wildfell	16d ago	Fit
Graignes	17d ago	Fit
Killybegs Warrior	20d ago	Fit
Bopedro	21d ago	Fit
Zozimus	21d ago	Fit
Bluelight Bay	22d ago	Fit
Major Partnership	22d ago	Fit
Faylaq	23d ago	Fit
Carolus Magnus	23d ago	Fit
Dual Identity	28d ago	Fit
Eagles Way	28d ago	Fit
Stay Well	28d ago	Fit
Storm Catcher	30d ago	Fit
Crack Shot	32d ago	Fit
Arqoob	34d ago	Fit
Thunder Ball	34d ago	Fit
Oviedo	35d ago	Fit
Astro King	35d ago	Fit
Haunted Dream	35d ago	Fit
Paradias	36d ago	Fit
Geremia	36d ago	Fit
Terwada	37d ago	Fit
Akhu Najla	37d ago	Fit
Eilean Dubh	37d ago	Fit
Greek Order	42d ago	Fit
Merlin The Wizard	49d ago	Fresh
Majestic	51d ago	Fresh
Epic Poet	57d ago	Fresh
Saga	85d ago	Fresh
Tyrrhenian Sea	182d ago	Long break

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Thunder Ball	Prominent
Dutch Decoy	Hold Up
Thundering	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 3 of 35 runners classified.