Vickers.Bet Proudly Supporting British Racing Nursery Handicap

Newcastle (AW)

19:00

Date 2023-10-02

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,140

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (3)	Tropical Air Bay J:Jason Hart T:Charlie Johnston	J:Jason Hart T:Charlie Johnston	139	—	753311	64	67	56	7d	—	—	-11	40.8	0.18/1	8/11 58%
Showed the right attitude last week; looks on the upgrade and should be fine down from 7f
7 (5)	Anglesey Lad Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:David Loughnane	J:Daniel Muscutt T:David Loughnane	130	—	49775	55	64	46	17d	—	—	-11	6.3	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Had a couple of wide stalls to deal with latterly but he's seemingly exposed as ordinary
5 (6)	Socialise Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Rowan Scott T:Nigel Tinkler	132	p	849554	57	62	40	13d	—	—	-6	4.6	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Exposed maiden who's still to finish placed; first-time cheekpieces need to help
9 (9)	Rock Lodge Bay J:Harry Russell T:Phillip Makin	J:Harry Russell T:Phillip Makin	123	b	400045	48	66	-	25d	—	—	-3	1.2	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Needs to settle but looks the main threat to Tropical Air on either of his last two runs
2 (10)	Unowho Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Ollie Pears	J:Cam Hardie T:Ollie Pears	137	—	255764	62	66	7	16d	—	—	0	4.1	5.25/1	22 5%
Has gone backwards and is fully exposed now; trainer been in good form lately
10 (4)	Good Morning Alex Bay J:James Sullivan T:David & Nicola Barron	J:James Sullivan T:David & Nicola Barron	120	b	087	45	49	-	72d	—	—	-3	1	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Been gelded; worth a market check in blinkers now handicapping off a basement mark
8 (8)	Mister Gan Bay J:Sam James T:Craig Lidster	J:Sam James T:Craig Lidster	129	—	770	54	64	-	17d	—	—	-3	2.6	3.75/1	16 6%
Well held all three starts but hasn't seen out 7f the past twice; more potential than some
6 (2)	Parsons Meadow Chestnut J:Graham Lee T:Philip Kirby	J:Graham Lee T:Philip Kirby	131	—	380	56	58	-	52d	—	—	0	4	6.00/1	25 4%
Big prices and well beaten in three runs in the summer; is some way down the pecking order
3 (7)	Miss Rainbow Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Tracy Waggott	J:Tom Eaves T:Tracy Waggott	136	—	8636	61	63	46	95d	—	—	+2	5.9	6.75/1	28 4%
Better off now handicapping but her trainer is 0-69 with 2yos down the seasons
4 (1)	Yiengaa Bay J:Alex Jary(7) T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Alex Jary(7) T:Nigel Tinkler	133	—	646	58	61	-	19d	—	—	0	2.9	8.00/1	33 3%
Should find things easier now handicapping at a lowly level; possibilities

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Tropical Air	8/11	8/11	8/13	8/11	8/11
Anglesey Lad	9/2	4	4	4	9/2
Socialise	8	15/2	8	15/2	15/2
Rock Lodge	20	18	16	20/1	20
Unowho	20	22	22	22	22
Good Morning Alex	20	22	20	22/1	22
Mister Gan	16	14	12	14	14
Parsons Meadow	20	22	22	25	22
Miss Rainbow	25	25	22	25/1	28
Yiengaa	33	28	33	33	33

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Tropical Air

40.8

OR: 3.5 Form: 19.4 Odds: 17.9

8/11

2nd

Anglesey Lad

6.3

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 5

9/2

3rd

Miss Rainbow

5.9

OR: 2.8 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.1

Socialise

4.6

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Unowho

4.1

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

Parsons Meadow

OR: 1.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1

Yiengaa

2.9

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

Mister Gan

2.6

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Rock Lodge

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Good Morning Alex

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1

22/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Tropical Air	64	67	56
Unowho	62	66	7
Miss Rainbow	61	63	46
Yiengaa	58	61	—
Socialise	57	62	40
Parsons Meadow	56	58	—
Anglesey Lad	55	64	46
Mister Gan	54	64	—
Rock Lodge	48	66	—
Good Morning Alex	45	49	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Tropical Air	7d ago	Quick return
Socialise	13d ago	Quick return
Unowho	16d ago	Fit
Anglesey Lad	17d ago	Fit
Mister Gan	17d ago	Fit
Yiengaa	19d ago	Fit
Rock Lodge	25d ago	Fit
Parsons Meadow	52d ago	Fresh
Good Morning Alex	72d ago	Fresh
Miss Rainbow	95d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.