Unibet Horserace Betting-Operator Of The Year Nursery Handicap

Kempton (AW)

16:55

Date 2023-10-18

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,140

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (4)	Super Schwartz Bay J:Finley Marsh T:Richard Hughes	J:Finley Marsh T:Richard Hughes	132	—	59631	57	68	59	18d	—	—	-9	24.5	0.41/1	13/8 38%
Comfortable winner at Chelmsford 18 days ago; that form franked already; key player up 6lb
1 (10)	Mbappe Bay J:Saffie Osborne T:Ed Walker	J:Saffie Osborne T:Ed Walker	135	—	50862	60	67	59	18d	—	—	-5	12.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Improved effort when 2nd at Chelmsford latest (6f; form franked); up 3lb but can go well
2 (2)	Havana Touch Grey J:David Egan T:John Butler	J:David Egan T:John Butler	135	—	06987	60	62	34	23d	—	—	-7	6.1	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Hint of promise before hampered in straight on nursery debut (7f) latest; check betting
NR (11)	Damia Chestnut J:NON-RUNNER T:Victor Dartnall	J:NON-RUNNER T:Victor Dartnall	127	h	794644	52	66	-	8d	—	—	-50	20.5	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Fair 4th in big field at Leicester on last week's stable debut; has shown promise over C&D
5 (8)	Monkey Miss Bay J:Richard Kingscote T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	J:Richard Kingscote T:Daniel & Claire Kubler	132	p	578	57	63	-	32d	—	—	-5	4.3	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Likely improver now handicapping at a modest level in first-time cheekpieces
11 (3)	Ritzy Bay J:Luke Morris T:Sylvester Kirk	J:Luke Morris T:Sylvester Kirk	127	—	007865	52	64	42	15d	—	—	-4	2.2	3.25/1	14 7%
Unplaced all six starts but has hinted at better; others still have more pressing claims
3 (1)	Snow Boots Chestnut J:Mollie Phillips(3) T:Tony Carroll	J:Mollie Phillips(3) T:Tony Carroll	134	—	768	59	61	-	75d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	-2	3.9	3.25/1	14 7%
Modest form in three turf runs this summer; opening mark looks stiff on that evidence
7 (7)	Justahunch Bay J:Rob Hornby T:Darryll Holland	J:Rob Hornby T:Darryll Holland	130	p	44668	55	65	34	23d	—	—	-3	3	3.75/1	16 6%
Not progressing and new headgear isn't enough to tempt
4 (5)	Dominant Force Bay J:Neil Callan T:Tony Carroll	J:Neil Callan T:Tony Carroll	133	—	086	58	58	-	75d	—	—	-2	3.4	3.75/1	16 6%
Faces first realistic opportunity now handicapping (been gelded); can do better
9 (12)	My Lady Samantha Bay J:Christian Howarth(5) T:Alice Haynes	J:Christian Howarth(5) T:Alice Haynes	128	p	87067	53	65	46	18d	—	—	-3	2.1	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Hasn't run badly in either nursery but 5l behind Super Schwartz latest & drawn widest
10 (9)	Willowbank Chestnut J:Callum Shepherd T:Charlie Fellowes	J:Callum Shepherd T:Charlie Fellowes	128	—	7600	53	64	32	74d	—	—	-1	1.5	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Poor form on turf but one promising effort on AW; risky but not impossible
8 (6)	Someone Like You Bay J:Darragh Keenan T:Martin Dunne	J:Darragh Keenan T:Martin Dunne	128	—	06760	53	65	18	8d	—	—	0	1.1	24.75/1	100 1%
No improvement for the switch to nurseries as yet; not easily recommended

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Super Schwartz	13/8	13/8	6/4	13/8	13/8
Mbappe	4	4	7/2	4	4
Havana Touch	11/2	5	5	11/2	11/2
Damia	15/2	SP	SP	SP	SP
Monkey Miss	15/2	8	17/2	17/2	17/2
Ritzy	14	12	11	12	12/1
Snow Boots	14	14	12	14	12
Justahunch	16	16	14	16	14/1
Dominant Force	16	16	14	16	16
My Lady Samantha	20	20/1	20	20	20/1
Willowbank	25	28	25/1	28/1	28/1
Someone Like You	100	100	80	100	66

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Super Schwartz

24.5

OR: 1.8 Form: 12.1 Odds: 10.6

13/8

2nd

Damia

20.5

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 20

15/2

3rd

Mbappe

12.5

OR: 2.5 Form: 5 Odds: 5

7/2

Havana Touch

6.1

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Monkey Miss

4.3

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

17/2

Snow Boots

3.9

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Dominant Force

3.4

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

Justahunch

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

Ritzy

2.2

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

My Lady Samantha

2.1

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Willowbank

1.5

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

28/1

Someone Like You

1.1

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

100

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Mbappe	60	67	59
Havana Touch	60	62	34
Snow Boots	59	61	—
Dominant Force	58	58	—
Super Schwartz	57	68	59
Monkey Miss	57	63	—
Justahunch	55	65	34
My Lady Samantha	53	65	46
Willowbank	53	64	32
Someone Like You	53	65	18
Damia	52	66	—
Ritzy	52	64	42

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Damia	8d ago	Quick return
Someone Like You	8d ago	Quick return
Ritzy	15d ago	Fit
Super Schwartz	18d ago	Fit
Mbappe	18d ago	Fit
My Lady Samantha	18d ago	Fit
Havana Touch	23d ago	Fit
Justahunch	23d ago	Fit
Monkey Miss	32d ago	Fit
Willowbank	74d ago	Fresh
Snow Boots	75d ago	Fresh
Dominant Force	75d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Kempton (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.