Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Pat Smullen Mercury Stakes (Group 3)

Dundalk (AW)

19:00

Date 2023-10-27

Distance 5f

Class Class 1

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo+

Prize €32,450

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (4)	Bouttemont Bay J:Dylan Browne McMonagle T:Y Barberot	J:Dylan Browne McMonagle T:Y Barberot	140	tp	331490	109	105	-	26d	—	—	0	26.4	0.63/1	5/2 29%
AW winner in France and at Newcastle; not clear run in Abbaye but has to be respected
5 (5)	The Highway Rat Bay J:W J Lee T:A Oliver	J:W J Lee T:A Oliver	140	—	-21532	102	108	87	21d	—	—	+12	29.1	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Just denied by Harry's Bar over C&D recently after slow start; chance given a level break
11 (8)	Queen Me Chestnut J:Declan McDonogh T:Kevin Ryan	J:Declan McDonogh T:Kevin Ryan	137	p	3-9608	103	104	-	35d	—	—	+5	19.4	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Soft ground didn't suit latest; cheekpieces on for AW debut and respected on overall form
4 (6)	Harry's Bar Chestnut J:Cian MacRedmond T:Adrian McGuinness	J:Cian MacRedmond T:Adrian McGuinness	140	tp	555301	102	109	88	21d	—	—	+20	26.2	3.25/1	14 7%
Beat several of these recently over C&D although rider unable to claim this time
2 (7)	Big Gossey Grey J:Robert Whearty T:Charles O'Brien	J:Robert Whearty T:Charles O'Brien	140	—	631243	106	103	82	13d	—	—	+20	24.3	4.75/1	20 5%
Better on turf and bit to find on recent C&D fourth to Harry's Bar
10 (12)	Pillow Talk Bay J:Chris Hayes T:K R Burke	J:Chris Hayes T:K R Burke	137	v	270343	90	99	-	47d	—	—	+10	16.1	4.25/1	18 6%
AW debut here and lots to find on turf ratings
12 (2)	Alabama b/br J:Colin Keane T:A P O'Brien	J:Colin Keane T:A P O'Brien	122	tb	224128	-	100	97	14d	—	—	-4	15.2	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Useful C&D form but bit below what is likely required here
8 (3)	Dun Na Sead Chestnut J:Oisin McSweeney T:Daniel James Murphy	J:Oisin McSweeney T:Daniel James Murphy	137	—	311433	90	100	75	54d	—	—	+16	21.5	6.00/1	25 4%
Game front-running handicapper held by Twilight Jet on Tipperary Listed third
6 (9)	Twilight Jet Bay J:Leigh Roche T:M D O'Callaghan	J:Leigh Roche T:M D O'Callaghan	140	b	0-7618	103	99	-	33d	—	—	+11	14.2	5.25/1	22 5%
Soft ground against him latest; stiff enough task on AW debut
1 (10)	Arnhem Bay J:Gavin Ryan T:M G Quinn	J:Gavin Ryan T:M G Quinn	140	—	301303	94	105	84	21d	—	—	+16	19.3	8.00/1	33 3%
Career-best third to Harry's Bar over C&D early this month but still more needed
7 (1)	Ano Syra Bay J:Ben Coen T:John James Feane	J:Ben Coen T:John James Feane	137	—	-32630	100	108	-	47d	—	—	+14	17.7	6.75/1	28 4%
Winner here but form mostly on turf; bit to find at the weights
9 (11)	Lady Tilbury Bay J:Oisin Orr T:David Marnane	J:Oisin Orr T:David Marnane	137	—	517175	93	99	78	21d	—	—	+16	18.3	16.25/1	66 2%
Little over 2l off Harry's Bar over C&D recently but career-best needed to feature here

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Bouttemont	5/2	9/4	17/8	2	9/4
The Highway Rat	4	4	7/2	4	4
Queen Me	9/2	13/2	7	6	7
Harry's Bar	14	11	12	12	12
Big Gossey	20	18	18	18	18
Pillow Talk	18	14	12	14	16
Alabama	7/2	4	10/3	7/2	7/2
Dun Na Sead	25	20	22	14	25
Twilight Jet	22	20	20	22	20
Arnhem	33	28	25	28	33
Ano Syra	28	20	22	22	22
Lady Tilbury	66	33	33	40	50

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

The Highway Rat

29.1

OR: 13 Form: 11.1 Odds: 5

7/2

2nd

Bouttemont

26.4

OR: 14.8 Form: 3.6 Odds: 8

5/2

3rd

Harry's Bar

26.2

OR: 13 Form: 11.5 Odds: 1.7

Big Gossey

24.3

OR: 14 Form: 9.1 Odds: 1.2

Dun Na Sead

21.5

OR: 10 Form: 10.1 Odds: 1.4

Queen Me

19.4

OR: 13.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 4

13/2

Arnhem

19.3

OR: 11 Form: 7.5 Odds: 0.8

Lady Tilbury

18.3

OR: 10.8 Form: 7 Odds: 0.6

Ano Syra

17.7

OR: 12.5 Form: 4.2 Odds: 1

Pillow Talk

16.1

OR: 10 Form: 4.5 Odds: 1.6

Alabama

15.2

OR: 0 Form: 9.5 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Twilight Jet

14.2

OR: 13.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Bouttemont	109	105	—
Big Gossey	106	103	82
Queen Me	103	104	—
Twilight Jet	103	99	—
The Highway Rat	102	108	87
Harry's Bar	102	109	88
Ano Syra	100	108	—
Arnhem	94	105	84
Lady Tilbury	93	99	78
Pillow Talk	90	99	—
Dun Na Sead	90	100	75
Alabama	—	100	97

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Big Gossey	13d ago	Quick return
Alabama	14d ago	Fit
The Highway Rat	21d ago	Fit
Harry's Bar	21d ago	Fit
Arnhem	21d ago	Fit
Lady Tilbury	21d ago	Fit
Bouttemont	26d ago	Fit
Twilight Jet	33d ago	Fit
Queen Me	35d ago	Fit
Pillow Talk	47d ago	Fresh
Ano Syra	47d ago	Fresh
Dun Na Sead	54d ago	Fresh

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Arnhem	Prominent
Twilight Jet	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 12 runners classified.