Stay Golden With BetMGM Safer Gambling Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Lingfield (AW)

13:20

Date 2023-10-27

Distance 6f1y

Class Class 5

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,996

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (1)	Catherine Parr Bay J:James Doyle T:John & Thady Gosden	J:James Doyle T:John & Thady Gosden	128	—	5	-	83	43	11d	—	—	-28	13.3	0.41/1	13/8 38%
Blue Point filly who showed promise in 7f event at Kempton last week; major player
8 (4)	Ravensbourne Bay J:William Buick T:Ed Walker	J:William Buick T:Ed Walker	128	—	74	-	79	-	49d	—	—	-19	8.4	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Good effort at Ascot last time; pedigree suggests she'll improve further switched to AW
1 (8)	Tiger Tulip Bay J:Gina Mangan(3) T:Heather Main	J:Gina Mangan(3) T:Heather Main	132	—	0931	77	81	57	18d	—	—	+6	24.1	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Incurs 4lb penalty for Wolverhampton win but Gina Mangan takes off 3lb; respected
2 (6)	Bengurion Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Charlie Johnston	J:Rossa Ryan T:Charlie Johnston	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-6	2.2	2.50/1	10/1 9%
65,000euros yearling; half-sister to a 2yo Group 3 winner; heed the market signals
5 (2)	Free As A Bird Bay J:Tom Marquand T:Ed Walker	J:Tom Marquand T:Ed Walker	128	—	7	-	67	-	37d	—	—	-6	2.1	3.25/1	14 7%
Hinted at ability, albeit without landing a blow, in Yarmouth contest
6 (7)	High Sport Bay J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	128	—	57	-	65	-	53d	—	—	-3	1.2	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Midfield at Windsor on latest turf start; related to several AW winners
7 (3)	Mileah Bay J:Rob Hornby T:Rae Guest	J:Rob Hornby T:Rae Guest	128	h	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.8	8.25/1	33/1 3%
From a family that her connections know well; check the betting
4 (5)	Chaumet More Bay J:Charles Bishop T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:Charles Bishop T:Eve Johnson Houghton	128	—	60	-	74	-	37d	—	—	-1	0.3	24.75/1	100 1%
Needs to improve on her two turf efforts

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Catherine Parr	11/8	5/4	13/8	11/8	11/8
Ravensbourne	9/4	5/2	15/8	9/4	9/4
Tiger Tulip	9/2	4	9/2	4	9/2
Bengurion	10	10	10/1	10	10
Free As A Bird	14	11	12	12	12/1
High Sport	20	20	20/1	18	20/1
Mileah	33	33	33/1	28	33
Chaumet More	100	80	80	80	80/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Tiger Tulip

24.1

OR: 6.8 Form: 12.1 Odds: 5.2

9/2

2nd

Catherine Parr

13.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 13.3

13/8

3rd

Ravensbourne

8.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 8.4

5/2

Bengurion

2.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

10/1

Free As A Bird

2.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

High Sport

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Mileah

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

33/1

Chaumet More

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

100

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Tiger Tulip	77	81	57
Catherine Parr	—	83	43
Ravensbourne	—	79	—
Bengurion	—	—	—
Free As A Bird	—	67	—
High Sport	—	65	—
Mileah	—	—	—
Chaumet More	—	74	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Catherine Parr	11d ago	Quick return
Tiger Tulip	18d ago	Fit
Free As A Bird	37d ago	Fit
Chaumet More	37d ago	Fit
Ravensbourne	49d ago	Fresh
High Sport	53d ago	Fresh
Bengurion	—	—
Mileah	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Lingfield (AW) over 6f1y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.