BetMGM: It's Showtime Handicap – Lingfield (AW)

Lingfield (AW)

15:05

BetMGM: It's Showtime Handicap

Date 2023-10-27

Distance 1m1y

Class Class 6

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,559

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (10)	No Turning Back Bay J:Paddy Bradley(3) T:Pat Phelan	J:Paddy Bradley(3) T:Pat Phelan	134	—	024242	50	62	51	51d	—	—	-5	14.2	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Has shown clear signs that she's up to winning an ordinary race; major contender
5 (2)	Elusive Tiger Bay J:Joshua Bryan T:Archie Watson	J:Joshua Bryan T:Archie Watson	132	b	084542	51	64	51	13d	—	—	-9	11	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Has some encouraging form since handicapping; possibilities off unaltered mark
10 (11)	Zakram Grey J:Daniel Muscutt T:David O'Meara	J:Daniel Muscutt T:David O'Meara	126	p	570434	45	70	48	6d	—	—	-13	8.3	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Three fair runs in cheekpieces here over the past month; one of the likelier winners
7 (7)	She's A Mirage Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:David Evans	J:Rossa Ryan T:David Evans	132	—	414178	51	68	45	22d	—	—	-1	10.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Successful in Jersey and on the mainland this summer; form dipped last twice
6 (9)	Calleveryoneuknow Bay J:Kevin Stott T:Amy Murphy	J:Kevin Stott T:Amy Murphy	132	p	642606	51	64	38	20d	—	—	-3	3.5	2.75/1	12 8%
Inconsistent maiden; not a solid option but has a fighting chance if back to her best
11 (5)	Tiz Likely Bay J:David Probert T:J S Moore	J:David Probert T:J S Moore	126	p	500650	45	66	30	1d	—	—	-6	2.1	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Modest 3yo maiden who was last of ten when 50-1 here on Thursday
8 (6)	Neptune Legend Bay J:William Carson T:Tony Carroll	J:William Carson T:Tony Carroll	131	tb	679469	47	69	54	8d	—	—	-4	1.6	3.75/1	16 6%
Form has been largely on the decline for current stable; unproven at 1m
2 (8)	Dutugamunu Chestnut J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Lee Carter	J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Lee Carter	134	p	-52640	50	69	52	188d	—	—	-2	2.9	4.75/1	20 5%
Good chance off current mark provided he returns from layoff in top form; both wins C&D
4 (4)	Star For A Day Chestnut J:William Carver(3) T:Simon Hodgson	J:William Carver(3) T:Simon Hodgson	133	t	688347	49	64	16	48d	—	—	-1	2.5	6.00/1	25 4%
Fitting of tongue-tie may help on this second run since wind surgery
1 (1)	Aryaah Grey J:Rob Hornby T:Mark Hoad	J:Rob Hornby T:Mark Hoad	135	—	794788	51	69	-	8d	—	—	-1	0.8	8.00/1	33 3%
Far from solid on 2023 form; soundly beaten last week on debut for new yard
9 (3)	Certain Style Bay J:George Rooke T:Laura Mongan	J:George Rooke T:Laura Mongan	130	p	83400	49	59	23	57d	—	—	-1	1.5	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Drop back to 1m, combined with first-time headgear, may prompt improvement

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
No Turning Back	10/3	10/3	3/1	10/3	3
Elusive Tiger	7/2	10/3	3/1	10/3	10/3
Zakram	3	3	3/1	3	3
She's A Mirage	7	13/2	6	13/2	13/2
Calleveryoneuknow	12	11	11/1	12	11
Tiz Likely	12	10	12/1	12/1	12
Neptune Legend	16	12	14	14	14
Dutugamunu	16	18	18/1	18/1	20
Star For A Day	20	25	25	25	25
Aryaah	33	33	33	33	33
Certain Style	50	50	50/1	50	40

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

No Turning Back

14.2

OR: 0 Form: 8.5 Odds: 5.7

10/3

2nd

Elusive Tiger

OR: 0.3 Form: 5 Odds: 5.7

7/2

3rd

She's A Mirage

10.6

OR: 0.3 Form: 7 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Zakram

8.3

OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 6.2

3/1

Calleveryoneuknow

3.5

OR: 0.3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.7

Dutugamunu

2.9

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.4

Star For A Day

2.5

OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1

Tiz Likely

2.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Neptune Legend

1.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Certain Style

1.5

OR: 0 Form: 0.9 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Aryaah

0.8

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Elusive Tiger	51	64	51
She's A Mirage	51	68	45
Calleveryoneuknow	51	64	38
Aryaah	51	69	—
No Turning Back	50	62	51
Dutugamunu	50	69	52
Star For A Day	49	64	16
Certain Style	49	59	23
Neptune Legend	47	69	54
Zakram	45	70	48
Tiz Likely	45	66	30

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Tiz Likely	1d ago	Quick return
Zakram	6d ago	Quick return
Neptune Legend	8d ago	Quick return
Aryaah	8d ago	Quick return
Elusive Tiger	13d ago	Quick return
Calleveryoneuknow	20d ago	Fit
She's A Mirage	22d ago	Fit
Star For A Day	48d ago	Fresh
No Turning Back	51d ago	Fresh
Certain Style	57d ago	Fresh
Dutugamunu	188d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Lingfield (AW) over 1m1y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Based on 7 draws with historical results at this course and distance.