racingtv.com Handicap – Kempton (AW)

Kempton (AW)

16:30

racingtv.com Handicap

Date 2023-11-06

Distance 7f

Class Class 2

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £12,885

Winning Time 1m 24.10s (fast by 0.50s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Mount Athos (GB) James Doyle · James Tate	7/4F	Won
2nd	Aratus (IRE) Richard Kingscote · Clive Cox	6/1	1
3rd	Juan Les Pins (GB) Alistair Rawlinson · Michael Appleby	13/2	4
4th	Larado (FR) Luke Morris · Michael Appleby	7/1	.5
5th	Tacarib Bay (GB) William Buick · Richard Hannon	3/1	2
6th	Stone Soldier (GB) Ryan Sexton · Richard Fahey	14/1	.75
7th	Lord Of The Lodge (IRE) Clifford Lee · K R Burke	22/1	3

Runners (7)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (7)	Mount Athos Bay J:James Doyle T:James Tate	J:James Doyle T:James Tate	134	—	-12584	101	116	70	66d	1W/1P 1 run	1W/1P 1 run	-7	26.9	0.38/1	6/4 40%
Front-runner; 2-2 over C&D; gelded since last seen; may not have reached his ceiling yet
3 (1)	Tacarib Bay Bay J:William Buick T:Richard Hannon	J:William Buick T:Richard Hannon	134	b	-53660	101	116	93	94d	—	—	-3	20.9	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Ascot sixth in July (easy winner of his group) makes him of some interest in this field
6 (6)	Aratus Bay J:Richard Kingscote T:Clive Cox	J:Richard Kingscote T:Clive Cox	126	h	0603-0	93	115	84	10d	—	—	+2	14.4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Couldn't reward heavy support on his return 10 days ago; hood a good move; dangerous mark
7 (2)	Larado Bay J:Luke Morris T:Michael Appleby	J:Luke Morris T:Michael Appleby	119	b	880242	86	113	95	12d	—	—	+9	19.4	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Ran well over 1m here 12 days ago (blew the home turn); 4lb higher and needs more
1 (4)	Juan Les Pins Bay J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	139	—	130324	106	112	-	30d	—	—	+14	21.8	2.25/1	10 10%
Improved again in recent months; lofty mark as a consequence and just 1-17 over this trip
5 (3)	Stone Soldier Chestnut J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Richard Fahey	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Richard Fahey	132	p	4730-2	99	113	-	52d	—	—	+13	19	3.25/1	14 7%
C&D winner for James Given; promising start for new yard in September; higher AW mark
2 (5)	Lord Of The Lodge Bay J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	135	—	240405	102	114	73	128d	—	—	+9	14.6	4.25/1	18 6%
Useful front-runner on AW; can go well fresh and he has the ability to feature

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Mount Athos	6/4	6/4	6/4	6/4	6/4
Tacarib Bay	11/4	3	3	3	11/4
Aratus	6	11/2	5	5	11/2
Larado	8	15/2	7	8	15/2
Juan Les Pins	10	17/2	9	10	9
Stone Soldier	14	12	11	14	14
Lord Of The Lodge	16	14	18	14	14

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Mount Athos

26.9

OR: 12.8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 10.6

6/4

2nd

Juan Les Pins

21.8

OR: 14 Form: 5.6 Odds: 2.2

3rd

Tacarib Bay

20.9

OR: 12.8 Form: 0.9 Odds: 7.3

11/4

Larado

19.4

OR: 9 Form: 7.5 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Stone Soldier

OR: 12.3 Form: 5 Odds: 1.7

Lord Of The Lodge

14.6

OR: 13 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Aratus

14.4

OR: 10.8 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

11/2

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Juan Les Pins	106	112	—
Lord Of The Lodge	102	114	73
Mount Athos	101	116	70
Tacarib Bay	101	116	93
Stone Soldier	99	113	—
Aratus	93	115	84
Larado	86	113	95

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Aratus	10d ago	Quick return
Larado	12d ago	Quick return
Juan Les Pins	30d ago	Fit
Stone Soldier	52d ago	Fresh
Mount Athos	66d ago	Fresh
Tacarib Bay	94d ago	Long break
Lord Of The Lodge	128d ago	Long break

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Mount Athos	Front Runner
Lord Of The Lodge	Front Runner

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 7 runners classified.

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Kempton (AW) over 7f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Based on 8 draws with historical results at this course and distance.