Bet £10 Get £40 At BetMGM Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

17:50

Bet £10 Get £40 At BetMGM Handicap

Date 2023-11-10

Distance 1m5y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,140

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5 (6)	Spirit Of Bowland Bay J:Kevin Stott T:Stella Barclay	J:Kevin Stott T:Stella Barclay	134	—	111733	59	71	58	11d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/1P 2 runs	-5	19.6	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Three Tapeta wins at 7f and 1m; up 7lb for the latest of them but promising 3rd latest
9 (11)	Mr Heinz Bay J:Cam Hardie T:Simon Whitaker	J:Cam Hardie T:Simon Whitaker	127	b	236912	52	72	56	24d	—	—	+2	17.5	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Well suited by C&D on last two starts, winning then close 2nd; close up again
1 (8)	Little Ted Chestnut J:Jack Garritty T:Tim Easterby	J:Jack Garritty T:Tim Easterby	136	p	413064	61	71	36	21d	—	—	-7	10.9	1.13/1	9/2 18%
C&D winner from just 3 attempts; checked in his run when close 4th latest; place chance
7 (5)	My Roxanne Bay J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	129	—	313935	56	72	53	20d	—	—	-5	10.9	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Won AW handicaps at 1m and 7f earlier in the year; two good 1m runs of late
6 (10)	Possible Ambition Bay J:Jason Hart T:John Quinn	J:Jason Hart T:John Quinn	133	b	64-435	58	72	27	14d	—	—	-6	5.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Two significant breaks since C&D win in February 2022; weighted to be involved
3 (12)	Whatwouldyouknow Bay J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	135	p	48-204	60	73	47	11d	—	—	-5	5.6	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Latest two AW wins came over C&D last autumn; promising 4th here latest; solid chance
NR (2)	Ebury Chestnut J:Kieran O'Neill T:Scott Dixon	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Scott Dixon	121	—	664995	46	66	57	17d	—	—	-11	4.3	3.25/1	14 7%
In better form earlier in 2023 than he is now; hasn't run here since course debut in 2019
4 (1)	Alibaba Bay J:Dylan Hogan T:Julia Feilden	J:Dylan Hogan T:Julia Feilden	135	—	053835	60	71	-	89d	—	—	+1	7.2	3.25/1	14 7%
Some fair turf runs of late but has not excelled in any of his three AW runs at 1m
8 (4)	Mayjority Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Rebecca Menzies	128	—	7877	55	67	-	197d	—	—	-2	2.5	5.25/1	22 5%
Minor promise on first 2 starts here; remote 7th on handicap debut; new yard; check market
2 (3)	Rains Of Castamere Chestnut J:Archie Young(7) T:R Mike Smith	J:Archie Young(7) T:R Mike Smith	135	—	0748-0	60	66	-	29d	—	—	0	3.3	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Multiple turf/AW winner but way back for new yard latest on return from absence
11 (9)	Big Hamish Bay J:Andrew Mullen T:Jim Goldie	J:Andrew Mullen T:Jim Goldie	121	v	007	46	-	-	25d	—	—	-1	0.5	16.50/1	66/1 1%
No worthwhile form as yet; entitled to do better now handicapping but has lots to find
12 (7)	The White Elephant Bay J:Amie Waugh(5) T:Simon Waugh	J:Amie Waugh(5) T:Simon Waugh	119	—	-03000	46	59	43	24d	—	—	0	1.2	31.00/1	125 1%
Third of 13 in 6f classified in March; no repeat in 3 runs since; down the pecking order

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Spirit Of Bowland	5/2	5/2	5/2	9/4	5/2
Mr Heinz	4	9/2	4	4	9/2
Little Ted	9/2	9/2	4	9/2	9/2
My Roxanne	11/2	5	5	9/2	5
Possible Ambition	13/2	7	13/2	13/2	7
Whatwouldyouknow	8/1	7/1	7	15/2	7/1
Ebury	12	14	12	11	11
Alibaba	14	14	14	12	14
Mayjority	22	20	20	20	20
Rains Of Castamere	66	50	40	50	66/1
Big Hamish	66/1	66	66	66	66
The White Elephant	100	125	100	100	125

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Spirit Of Bowland

19.6

OR: 2.3 Form: 10.1 Odds: 7.3

5/2

2nd

Mr Heinz

17.5

OR: 0.5 Form: 12.6 Odds: 4.4

9/2

3rd

Little Ted

10.9

OR: 2.8 Form: 2.9 Odds: 5.2

9/2

My Roxanne

10.9

OR: 1.5 Form: 5 Odds: 4.4

11/2

Alibaba

7.2

OR: 2.5 Form: 3 Odds: 1.7

Whatwouldyouknow

5.6

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

8/1

Possible Ambition

5.1

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

13/2

Ebury

4.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 4.3

Rains Of Castamere

3.3

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

66/1

Mayjority

2.5

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

The White Elephant

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0.9 Odds: 0.3

125

Big Hamish

0.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Little Ted	61	71	36
Whatwouldyouknow	60	73	47
Alibaba	60	71	—
Rains Of Castamere	60	66	—
Spirit Of Bowland	59	71	58
Possible Ambition	58	72	27
My Roxanne	56	72	53
Mayjority	55	67	—
Mr Heinz	52	72	56
Ebury	46	66	57
Big Hamish	46	—	—
The White Elephant	46	59	43

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Spirit Of Bowland	11d ago	Quick return
Whatwouldyouknow	11d ago	Quick return
Possible Ambition	14d ago	Fit
Ebury	17d ago	Fit
My Roxanne	20d ago	Fit
Little Ted	21d ago	Fit
Mr Heinz	24d ago	Fit
The White Elephant	24d ago	Fit
Big Hamish	25d ago	Fit
Rains Of Castamere	29d ago	Fit
Alibaba	89d ago	Fresh
Mayjority	197d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 1m5y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 4 draws with historical results at this course and distance.