Virgin Bet November Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

15:45

Virgin Bet November Handicap

Date 2023-11-11

Distance 1m4f98y

Class Class 2

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £36,078

Runners (14)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	Odds
5 (1)	Local Dynasty Bay J:William Buick T:Charlie Appleby	J:William Buick T:Charlie Appleby	133	—	11-334	101	110	-	120d	—	—	-3	19.4	11/4 27%
Godolphin runner who has progressive RPRs; gelded since last run; commands respect
1 (9)	Teumessias Fox Chestnut J:Callum Hutchinson(3) T:Andrew Balding	J:Callum Hutchinson(3) T:Andrew Balding	138	—	110445	101	113	91	86d	—	—	+4	19.2	9/2 18%
Fresh when he scored twice in spring; interesting on return from layoff; 2-4 on AW
7 (10)	Laafi Bay J:Adam Farragher(3) T:William Haggas	J:Adam Farragher(3) T:William Haggas	130	t	-40361	98	111	89	8d	—	—	+16	26.4	7 14%
Won on heavy ground last week; not fully exposed but this surface may not be ideal
3 (14)	Chillingham Bay J:P J McDonald T:Edward Bethell	J:P J McDonald T:Edward Bethell	135	ht	1-1424	98	111	-	78d	—	—	+11	22.1	15/2 12%
Has a solid record; won when fresh in the spring; possibilities on return from break
12 (13)	Onesmoothoperator Brown J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	J:Ben Robinson T:Brian Ellison	126	—	497275	89	110	74	25d	—	—	+7	14.4	10/1 9%
Has plenty of form here, so this race's move away from Doncaster looks a plus for him
9 (4)	Beraz Bay J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Julie Camacho	J:Ryan Sexton(3) T:Julie Camacho	128	—	4/2101	91	112	-	32d	—	—	+5	12.4	12 8%
Generally progressive on turf for current yard; likely player if taking well to AW
2 (3)	Mr Alan Chestnut J:Jason Hart T:George Boughey	J:Jason Hart T:George Boughey	137	p	55-612	100	111	-	8d	—	—	+8	14.1	16 6%
In top form but could have done with this race staying at Doncaster; revels in the mud
13 (7)	Mustazeed Brown J:Kaiya Fraser(5) T:Harry Eustace	J:Kaiya Fraser(5) T:Harry Eustace	126	—	-11742	89	109	-	14d	—	—	+16	21.1	20/1 5%
Has the ability to get involved, provided he stays this new trip and handles the surface
NR (11)	Splendent Bay J:Luke Morris T:Paul & Oliver Cole	J:Luke Morris T:Paul & Oliver Cole	128	—	516134	91	107	-	8d	—	—	-31	39.4	18 6%
May be in the assessor's grip off current mark; on the plus side, has won here
14 (8)	Struth Chestnut J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	126	p	362044	94	110	-	29d	—	—	+9	13.9	16 6%
More exposed than the other 3yos in this field; first attempt on AW
6 (6)	Prydwen Bay J:Sean Levey T:George Scott	J:Sean Levey T:George Scott	133	p	863235	96	108	72	91d	—	—	+13	18.4	18 6%
3-7 on AW but needs a career-best performance off this mark; headgear enlisted
4 (12)	Euchen Glen Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Jim Goldie	134	—	340244	97	109	-	14d	—	—	+11	15.5	25/1 4%
On a long losing sequence; unlikely to regain the winning thread in this major race
11 (5)	Furzig Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	J:Billy Garritty T:Richard Fahey	127	—	350335	90	111	-	28d	—	—	+12	14.3	40 3%
Multiple winner but it's a long time since he scored on AW; others preferred
8 (2)	Pleasant Man Bay J:Dylan Hogan T:Jack Jones	J:Dylan Hogan T:Jack Jones	130	p	871/30	93	108	-	—	—	—	+10	11.1	100 1%
May struggle in this major contest on debut for new stable

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Unibet	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes
Local Dynasty	11/4	3	3	3	5/2
Teumessias Fox	9/2	5	9/2	9/2	4
Laafi	7	7	7	7	7
Chillingham	15/2	6	7	7	7/1
Onesmoothoperator	9	10/1	9	9	9/1
Beraz	12	9	11	11	11
Mr Alan	16	12	16	16	16
Mustazeed	14	14/1	14	14	20/1
Splendent	16	18	18	18	18
Struth	14	16	14	14	14
Prydwen	18	18	16	16	16
Euchen Glen	25	25/1	25	25	25
Furzig	40	28	33	40	33
Pleasant Man	100	66	80	80	80

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Splendent

39.4

OR: 10.3 Form: 9.1 Odds: 20

2nd

Laafi

26.4

OR: 12 Form: 11.5 Odds: 2.9

3rd

Chillingham

22.1

OR: 12 Form: 7 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Mustazeed

21.1

OR: 9.8 Form: 10 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Local Dynasty

19.4

OR: 12.8 Form: 0 Odds: 6.7

11/4

Teumessias Fox

19.2

OR: 12.8 Form: 2 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Prydwen

18.4

OR: 11.5 Form: 5.5 Odds: 1.4

Euchen Glen

15.5

OR: 11.8 Form: 2.5 Odds: 1.2

25/1

Onesmoothoperator

14.4

OR: 9.8 Form: 2.5 Odds: 2.1

10/1

Furzig

14.3

OR: 10 Form: 3.6 Odds: 0.7

Mr Alan

14.1

OR: 12.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

Struth

13.9

OR: 11 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.4

Beraz

12.4

OR: 10.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

Pleasant Man

11.1

OR: 10.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Local Dynasty	101	110	—
Teumessias Fox	101	113	91
Mr Alan	100	111	—
Laafi	98	111	89
Chillingham	98	111	—
Euchen Glen	97	109	—
Prydwen	96	108	72
Struth	94	110	—
Pleasant Man	93	108	—
Beraz	91	112	—
Splendent	91	107	—
Furzig	90	111	—
Onesmoothoperator	89	110	74
Mustazeed	89	109	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Laafi	8d ago	Quick return
Mr Alan	8d ago	Quick return
Splendent	8d ago	Quick return
Mustazeed	14d ago	Fit
Euchen Glen	14d ago	Fit
Onesmoothoperator	25d ago	Fit
Furzig	28d ago	Fit
Struth	29d ago	Fit
Beraz	32d ago	Fit
Chillingham	78d ago	Fresh
Teumessias Fox	86d ago	Fresh
Prydwen	91d ago	Long break
Local Dynasty	120d ago	Long break
Pleasant Man	—	—