Happy Valley

11:10

Tai Lam Chung Handicap (Class 5) (3yo+) (Course C) (Turf)

Date 2023-11-22
Distance 6f
Class
Going Good
Type Flat
Surface Turf
Age Band 3yo+
Prize £52,183

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)
# Silk Horse Jockey / Trainer Wt Gear Form OR RPR TS Last Crs Dst Val Scr EW Odds
R13 (13)
Hercules
Brown
J:TBC
T:C H Yip
J:
T:C H Yip
132 tb 890805
38
64
-
7d
0
Three-time C&D winner; dip in grade sparked improvement latest; claims if building on that
R14 (14)
Spicy Skewer
Brown
J:TBC
T:K L Man
J:
T:K L Man
123 b 0-7980
29
62
-
185d
0
Little worthwhile form so far; will need to have improved plenty for the break to threaten
1 (2)
Ernest Feeling
b/br
J:Antoine Hamelin
T:Jamie Richards
J:Antoine Hamelin
T:Jamie Richards
134 tb 710951
40
55
-
129d
12
All career wins at Sha Tin (7f); 7lb higher mark and probably best watched over this C&D
2 (11)
Island Surprise
Black
J:Matthew Chadwick
T:K L Man
J:Matthew Chadwick
T:K L Man
133 tb 646899
39
67
-
24d
0
C&D winner; dips in grade and fairly treated but wide draw negates some enthusiasm
3 (5)
Charming Steed
Bay
J:K H Alfred Chan(5)
T:C Fownes
J:K H Alfred Chan(5)
T:C Fownes
132 het 203762
38
65
-
14d
5.9
Well treated on best form; hinting at a return to winning ways and looks the one to beat
4 (9)
Nordic Combined
Chestnut
J:Alexis Badel
T:W Y So
J:Alexis Badel
T:W Y So
132 tb 070701
38
70
-
24d
10
Impressive success over C&D on reappearance; respected despite the 11lb higher mark
5 (10)
Modest Gentleman
Chestnut
J:M L Yeung
T:K W Lui
J:M L Yeung
T:K W Lui
130 t 672493
36
64
-
35d
4.5
Maiden; promising return run for new trainer and shouldn't be far away off career low mark
6 (6)
Fire Ball
Bay
J:Brenton Avdulla
T:C H Yip
J:Brenton Avdulla
T:C H Yip
128 p 700930
34
69
-
31d
2.1
Inconsistent but has won over C&D off a much higher mark; minor place hopes at least
7 (8)
Happy Tango
Bay
J:L Hewitson
T:Y S Tsui
J:L Hewitson
T:Y S Tsui
128 b -82497
34
60
-
24d
1.5
Possibly needed reappearance; should have more to give off this mark after a quiet spell
8 (3)
Brilliant Pioneer
Bay
J:Andrea Atzeni
T:P F Yiu
J:Andrea Atzeni
T:P F Yiu
127 055952
33
67
-
24d
5
Maiden has shown some progress in two runs this campaign; one to consider
9 (12)
Fighting Star
Bay
J:Karis Teetan
T:C H Yip
J:Karis Teetan
T:C H Yip
126 b 070300
32
60
-
28d
1.5
1-32 local strike-rate and often tricky to predict; eased another 2lb but others preferred
10 (7)
Easy Two
Bay
J:K C Leung
T:Jimmy Ting
J:K C Leung
T:Jimmy Ting
125 htb 000570
31
69
-
17d
0
Nine starts so far and yet to threaten; percentage call is to oppose despite falling mark
11 (1)
Day Day Rich
Brown
J:Jerry Chau(2)
T:T P Yung
J:Jerry Chau(2)
T:T P Yung
122 tb 301802
28
55
-
28d
8
Runner-up on dirt latest; has the best of the draw but probably vulnerable off this mark
12 (4)
Mister Arm
Bay
J:H T Mo(2)
T:Y S Tsui
J:H T Mo(2)
T:Y S Tsui
120 834-75
26
64
-
185d
0
1m course winner; 7lb below that winning mark but this drop to 6f not certain to suit

No odds data available.

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st Ernest Feeling
12
OR: 0 Form: 12 Odds: 0
2nd Nordic Combined
10
OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 0
3rd Day Day Rich
8
OR: 0 Form: 8 Odds: 0
4 Charming Steed
5.9
OR: 0 Form: 5.9 Odds: 0
5 Brilliant Pioneer
5
OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 0
6 Modest Gentleman
4.5
OR: 0 Form: 4.5 Odds: 0
7 Fire Ball
2.1
OR: 0 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0
8 Happy Tango
1.5
OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0
9 Fighting Star
1.5
OR: 0 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0
10 Hercules
0
OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0
11 Spicy Skewer
0
OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0
12 Island Surprise
0
OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0
13 Easy Two
0
OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0
14 Mister Arm
0
OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0

Ratings

HorseORRPRTS
Ernest Feeling
40
55
Island Surprise
39
67
Hercules
38
64
Charming Steed
38
65
Nordic Combined
38
70
Modest Gentleman
36
64
Fire Ball
34
69
Happy Tango
34
60
Brilliant Pioneer
33
67
Fighting Star
32
60
Easy Two
31
69
Spicy Skewer
29
62
Day Day Rich
28
55
Mister Arm
26
64

Last Run

HorseLast RunStatus
Hercules 7d ago Quick return
Charming Steed 14d ago Fit
Easy Two 17d ago Fit
Island Surprise 24d ago Fit
Nordic Combined 24d ago Fit
Happy Tango 24d ago Fit
Brilliant Pioneer 24d ago Fit
Fighting Star 28d ago Fit
Day Day Rich 28d ago Fit
Fire Ball 31d ago Fit
Modest Gentleman 35d ago Fit
Ernest Feeling 129d ago Long break
Spicy Skewer 185d ago Long break
Mister Arm 185d ago Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Happy Valley over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.