Lou Years Day Birthday Stakes Handicap Chase – Exeter

Exeter

15:20

Lou Years Day Birthday Stakes Handicap Chase

Date 2024-01-01

Distance 2m3f48y

Class Class 5

Going Heavy

Type Chase

Surface Turf

Age Band 5yo+

Prize £4,489

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7	Time To Bite Bay J:Bryan Carver T:Chris Honour	J:Bryan Carver T:Chris Honour	151	b	3-3351	88	112	94	11d	—	—	-7	19.6	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Off the mark with unchallenged win over C&D latest; up 9lb but he's a big player again
10	Merry Monty Bay J:James Davies T:Chris Down	J:James Davies T:Chris Down	143	—	57/552	80	-	-	19d	—	—	-9	14.8	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Well-backed second over hurdles here last month and he's respected on this chase debut
3	Bolsover Bill Bay J:Miss Victoria Malzard(5) T:Harry Derham	J:Miss Victoria Malzard(5) T:Harry Derham	165	tp	213-84	102	111	16	187d	—	—	0	18.2	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Out of sorts in last two runs for Warren Greatrex and needs a major revival for new yard
5	Lightonthewing Bay J:James Best T:Sue Gardner	J:James Best T:Sue Gardner	157	—	13U1P-	94	110	89	289d	—	—	+12	21.2	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Won this race on heavy ground lats season and he needs a close look on his return
8	Blue Ribbon Bay J:Beau Morgan(5) T:Ryan Chapman	J:Beau Morgan(5) T:Ryan Chapman	147	—	7442-5	84	112	106	225d	—	—	+2	11.2	3.00/1	12/1 8%
0-5 over fences but was runner-up over C&D two runs back; not ruled out on return
1	Imperial Joe Bay J:Sean Houlihan T:Tim Dennis	J:Sean Houlihan T:Tim Dennis	168	—	612-45	105	107	87	42d	—	—	+8	16	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Triple chase winner but he's been well held last twice and others are more persuasive
4	I Love You Sivola Bay J:Brendan Powell T:Helen Nelmes	J:Brendan Powell T:Helen Nelmes	159	t	23-765	96	108	-	32d	—	—	+7	13.4	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Ex-French 6yo with a record of 1-25 and others are more convincing
9	School For Scandal Grey J:Micheal Nolan T:Joe Tickle	J:Micheal Nolan T:Joe Tickle	143	—	PP1-29	80	110	66	16d	—	—	+2	9.6	4.00/1	16/1 6%
His form nosedived at Hereford 16 days ago and he needs to bounce back near best
2	Pawpaw Bay J:Max Kendrick T:D J Jeffreys	J:Max Kendrick T:D J Jeffreys	165	v	3-144P	102	107	101	12d	—	—	+13	15.7	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Has lost his way since his last win in May and he needs a major turnaround
11	Christopher Clive Bay J:Ben Poste T:Joe Tickle	J:Ben Poste T:Joe Tickle	142	—	/6U9P-	79	-	-	305d	—	—	+6	7.6	25.00/1	100/1 1%
No joy over hurdles and is 10lb out of the weights on this chase debut; no appeal
NR	Saintemilion Bay J:Bryony Frost T:Jimmy Frost	J:Bryony Frost T:Jimmy Frost	155	t	/60-86	92	-	42	11d	—	—	—	10.5	—	—
Lightly raced in recent years and he struggled in two runs here last month; opposable

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Time To Bite	5/2	3/1	5/2	5/2	9/4
Merry Monty	9/4	3/1	3/1	11/4	11/4
Bolsover Bill	9/2	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1
Lightonthewing	12/1	9/1	9/1	10/1	10/1
Blue Ribbon	12/1	9/1	9/1	10/1	10/1
Imperial Joe	9/1	11/1	11/1	11/1	11/1
I Love You Sivola	12/1	12/1	12/1	14/1	14/1
School For Scandal	14/1	14/1	16/1	14/1	14/1
Pawpaw	33/1	40/1	40/1	50/1	40/1
Christopher Clive	100/1	100/1	100/1	100/1	100/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Lightonthewing

21.2

OR: 11 Form: 7.7 Odds: 2.5

12/1

2nd

Time To Bite

19.6

OR: 9.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 8

3/1

3rd

Bolsover Bill

18.2

OR: 13 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

9/2

Imperial Joe

OR: 13.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

11/1

Pawpaw

15.7

OR: 13 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0.6

50/1

Merry Monty

14.8

OR: 7.5 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

3/1

I Love You Sivola

13.4

OR: 11.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Blue Ribbon

11.2

OR: 8.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

12/1

Saintemilion

10.5

OR: 10.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

School For Scandal

9.6

OR: 7.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

16/1

Christopher Clive

7.6

OR: 7.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

100/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Imperial Joe	105	107	87
Bolsover Bill	102	111	16
Pawpaw	102	107	101
I Love You Sivola	96	108	—
Lightonthewing	94	110	89
Saintemilion	92	—	42
Time To Bite	88	112	94
Blue Ribbon	84	112	106
Merry Monty	80	—	—
School For Scandal	80	110	66
Christopher Clive	79	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Time To Bite	11d ago	Quick return
Saintemilion	11d ago	Quick return
Pawpaw	12d ago	Quick return
School For Scandal	16d ago	Fit
Merry Monty	19d ago	Fit
I Love You Sivola	32d ago	Fit
Imperial Joe	42d ago	Fit
Bolsover Bill	187d ago	Long break
Blue Ribbon	225d ago	Long break
Lightonthewing	289d ago	Long break
Christopher Clive	305d ago	Long break