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Kempton (AW)

18:00

Date 2024-01-17

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £2,980

Winning Time 1m 14.62s (slow by 3.52s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Big R (IRE) Jack Nicholls · Eve Johnson Houghton	2/1F	Won
2nd	Back Tomorrow (GB) Mr Simon Walker · Richard Spencer	4/1	2.25
3rd	Confederation (GB) Mr Fletcher Yarham · Dylan Cunha	5/1	1.25
4th	McCauley's Tavern (IRE) Mr Eireann Cagney · Mark Loughnane	4/1	0.1
5th	Swiss Pride (IRE) Miss Megan Jordan · Roger Teal	13/2	1.5
6th	Roman Spring (IRE) Miss Arabella Fox · Rachel Cook & John Bridger	14/1	0.05
7th	Inclement Weather (GB) Poppy Scott · Alex Hales	40/1	5
8th	Gharbeyih (GB) Miss Jodie Wingrove · Damien Wingrove	50/1	4.75

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (3)	Big R Bay J:Mr Jack Nicholls(5) T:Eve Johnson Houghton	J:Mr Jack Nicholls(5) T:Eve Johnson Houghton	154	—	6487-7	62	54	45	14d	—	—	-15	11	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Still a maiden but wasn't beaten far when favourite here most recently
5 (7)	Back Tomorrow Bay J:Mr Simon Walker T:Richard Spencer	J:Mr Simon Walker T:Richard Spencer	153	—	22451-	61	57	33	33d	—	—	+3	20.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Successful under Simon Walker at Southwell (AW debut) last month; obvious claims
1 (4)	McCauley's Tavern Bay J:Mr Eireann Cagney T:Mark Loughnane	J:Mr Eireann Cagney T:Mark Loughnane	156	—	3708-1	64	60	36	14d	—	—	+1	18.7	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Opened his account in C&D event two weeks ago; drops back in grade; respected
7 (2)	Confederation Grey J:Mr Fletcher Yarham(3) T:Dylan Cunha	J:Mr Fletcher Yarham(3) T:Dylan Cunha	150	t	24579-	58	58	32	63d	—	—	-6	6.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Close second on two occasions last year; fighting chance on that form
2 (5)	Swiss Pride Bay J:Miss Megan Jordan(5) T:Roger Teal	J:Miss Megan Jordan(5) T:Roger Teal	156	p	9446-3	64	58	52	14d	—	—	-1	9.4	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Ties in with McCauley's Tavern on C&D running a fortnight ago; on a handy mark
4 (6)	Roman Spring Brown J:Miss Arabella Fox(7) T:Rachel Cook & John Bridger	J:Miss Arabella Fox(7) T:Rachel Cook & John Bridger	154	p	0086-4	62	56	47	14d	—	—	-4	5.7	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Similar type to Big R; ties in with that rival on C&D form two weeks ago
9 (1)	Gharbeyih Bay J:Miss Jodie Wingrove(7) T:Damien Wingrove	J:Miss Jodie Wingrove(7) T:Damien Wingrove	137	p	/5406-	45	54	42	260d	—	—	-2	0.8	10.00/1	40/1 2%
0-8 for Scott Dixon; sold for 1,000gns since last run; headgear enlisted
8 (9)	Inclement Weather Bay J:Miss Poppy Scott(5) T:Alex Hales	J:Miss Poppy Scott(5) T:Alex Hales	148	t	35260-	56	53	-	33d	—	—	+3	5.3	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Form dipped sharply in last two appearances; others preferred
NR (8)	Porfin Bay J:TBC T:Phil McEntee	J: T:Phil McEntee	151	p	20787-	59	56	34	27d	—	—	—	3.3	—	—
Not in the best of form since returning to AW; others have stronger claims

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Big R	2/1	9/4	9/4	11/4	2/1
Back Tomorrow	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
McCauley's Tavern	4/1	4/1	7/2	10/3	4/1
Confederation	13/2	6/1	13/2	13/2	11/2
Swiss Pride	8/1	8/1	15/2	13/2	15/2
Roman Spring	17/2	17/2	17/2	7/1	8/1
Gharbeyih	33/1	33/1	28/1	40/1	25/1
Inclement Weather	40/1	40/1	40/1	50/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Back Tomorrow

20.5

OR: 2.8 Form: 12.5 Odds: 5.2

7/2

2nd

McCauley's Tavern

18.7

OR: 3.5 Form: 10 Odds: 5.2

4/1

3rd

Big R

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 8

11/4

Swiss Pride

9.4

OR: 3.5 Form: 3 Odds: 2.9

8/1

Confederation

6.6

OR: 2 Form: 1 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Roman Spring

5.7

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

17/2

Inclement Weather

5.3

OR: 1.5 Form: 3.1 Odds: 0.7

50/1

Porfin

3.3

OR: 2.3 Form: 1 Odds: 0

—

Gharbeyih

0.8

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

40/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
McCauley's Tavern	64	60	36
Swiss Pride	64	58	52
Big R	62	54	45
Roman Spring	62	56	47
Back Tomorrow	61	57	33
Porfin	59	56	34
Confederation	58	58	32
Inclement Weather	56	53	—
Gharbeyih	45	54	42

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Big R	14d ago	Fit
McCauley's Tavern	14d ago	Fit
Swiss Pride	14d ago	Fit
Roman Spring	14d ago	Fit
Porfin	27d ago	Fit
Back Tomorrow	33d ago	Fit
Inclement Weather	33d ago	Fit
Confederation	63d ago	Fresh
Gharbeyih	260d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Kempton (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.