Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Novice Hurdle (IRE Incentive Race)

Naas

13:55

Date 2024-02-10

Distance 2m3f21y

Class

Going Heavy

Type Hurdle

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize €11,800

Winning Time 5m 12.90s (slow by 49.70s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Answer To Kayf (GB) John Shinnick · Terence O'Brien	7/2	Won
2nd	Captain Cody (IRE) Paul Townend · W P Mullins	EvensF	1.5
3rd	Backtonormal (IRE) J J Slevin · Ms Margaret Mullins	18/1	0.3
4th	Any Road (IRE) Mark McDonagh · E J O'Grady	40/1	0.3
5th	Blizzard Of Oz (IRE) Danny Mullins · W P Mullins	5/2	1.25
6th	Thegraveyardbookie (IRE) Conor McNamara · E McNamara	66/1	20

Runners (7)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5	Captain Cody Bay J:Paul Townend T:W P Mullins	J:Paul Townend T:W P Mullins	158	—	2160-1	-	136	-	16d	—	—	-22	26.3	0.20/1	4/5 56%
Jumped sketchily but brushed aside Backtonormal at Gowran and likely to improve for this
3	Blizzard Of Oz Bay J:Danny Mullins T:W P Mullins	J:Danny Mullins T:W P Mullins	160	—	3212-1	-	130	114	60d	—	—	-7	17.3	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Overcame poor jumping in winning his maiden hurdle at Punchestown in December; more needed
1	Answer To Kayf Bay J:John Shinnick(7) T:Terence O'Brien	J:John Shinnick(7) T:Terence O'Brien	164	—	3-8123	134	135	108	46d	—	—	+8	29.3	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Staying second in a Grade 2 Limerick novice over 2m7f; dropping in trip not an issue
6	Thegraveyardbookie Bay J:Conor McNamara T:E McNamara	J:Conor McNamara T:E McNamara	158	—	3641	-	125	95	43d	—	—	+10	11.4	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Probably a decent enough prospect but could well find this a bit too taxing at this stage
2	Any Road Bay J:Mark McDonagh(3) T:E J O'Grady	J:Mark McDonagh(3) T:E J O'Grady	162	—	42-619	-	131	106	70d	—	—	-1	0.4	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Clearly better than Fairyhouse run but needs to improve on all form to be a factor here
4	Backtonormal b/br J:J J Slevin T:Ms Margaret Mullins	J:J J Slevin T:Ms Margaret Mullins	159	—	231-2	-	121	-	16d	—	—	+3	5.6	20.00/1	80/1 1%
No match for Captain Cody in a Gowran maiden hurdle; needs further but should run his race
NR	Makaela's Choice Bay J:TBC T:Thomas Mullins	J: T:Thomas Mullins	157	—	570-53	97	108	66	105d	—	—	—	11.8	—	—
Third in an ordinary Galway maiden hurdle in October when last seen; up against it here

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Captain Cody	4/5	4/5	8/11	8/11	8/11
Blizzard Of Oz	5/2	5/2	5/2	5/2	5/2
Answer To Kayf	10/3	10/3	3/1	7/2	11/4
Thegraveyardbookie	66/1	50/1	50/1	66/1	50/1
Any Road	66/1	66/1	50/1	66/1	66/1
Backtonormal	66/1	66/1	50/1	80/1	50/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Answer To Kayf

29.3

OR: 21 Form: 2.1 Odds: 6.2

7/2

2nd

Captain Cody

26.3

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 16.3

4/5

3rd

Blizzard Of Oz

17.3

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 7.3

5/2

Makaela's Choice

11.8

OR: 11.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Thegraveyardbookie

11.4

OR: 0 Form: 10.9 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Backtonormal

5.6

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 0.6

80/1

Any Road

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

66/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Answer To Kayf	134	135	108
Makaela's Choice	97	108	66
Captain Cody	—	136	—
Blizzard Of Oz	—	130	114
Thegraveyardbookie	—	125	95
Any Road	—	131	106
Backtonormal	—	121	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Captain Cody	16d ago	Fit
Backtonormal	16d ago	Fit
Thegraveyardbookie	43d ago	Fit
Answer To Kayf	46d ago	Fresh
Blizzard Of Oz	60d ago	Fresh
Any Road	70d ago	Fresh
Makaela's Choice	105d ago	Long break