"European Road To The Kentucky Derby" Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)

Kempton (AW)

19:00

Date 2024-02-21

Distance 1m

Class Class 3

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £30,924

Runners (6)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (5)	Notable Speech Chestnut J:William Buick T:Charlie Appleby	J:William Buick T:Charlie Appleby	133	—	1	-	97	41	25d	—	—	-24	27.9	0.15/1	8/13 62%
Looks an exciting prospect having scored with plenty in hand on debut (C&D)
2 (2)	Blown Away Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Hollie Doyle T:John & Thady Gosden	133	—	31622-	90	99	82	105d	—	—	+9	27.3	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Just about sets the standard but looks vulnerable to an improver
3 (6)	Cuban Tiger Bay J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	133	—	1	-	88	76	46d	—	—	+5	12.1	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Value for bit more than head winning margin on debut; should stay and play minor role
1 (3)	Arctic Thunder Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	133	—	5-1	-	92	74	30d	—	—	+5	11.9	2.50/1	10/1 9%
1m could see him in an ever better light but more is needed
6 (1)	Solomon Bay J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	J:Tom Marquand T:William Haggas	133	h	21	-	96	80	22d	—	—	+9	15.1	3.00/1	12/1 8%
May need 1m2f before long but is worthy of great respect
NR (4)	Only In Jakarta Brown J:NON-RUNNER T:Kevin Ryan	J:NON-RUNNER T:Kevin Ryan	133	—	022-1	80	-	-	30d	—	—	—	17.5	—	—
RPRs at least heading in right direction but others could see this out better; non-runner

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Notable Speech	8/13	8/13	8/13	8/13	8/13
Blown Away	10/3	10/3	10/3	10/3	10/3
Cuban Tiger	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1
Arctic Thunder	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1
Solomon	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Notable Speech

27.9

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 17.9

8/13

2nd

Blown Away

27.3

OR: 10 Form: 12.1 Odds: 5.2

10/3

3rd

Only In Jakarta

17.5

OR: 7.5 Form: 10 Odds: 0

—

Solomon

15.1

OR: 0 Form: 13.5 Odds: 1.6

12/1

Cuban Tiger

12.1

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 2.1

9/1

Arctic Thunder

11.9

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 1.9

10/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Blown Away	90	99	82
Only In Jakarta	80	—	—
Notable Speech	—	97	41
Cuban Tiger	—	88	76
Arctic Thunder	—	92	74
Solomon	—	96	80

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Solomon	22d ago	Fit
Notable Speech	25d ago	Fit
Arctic Thunder	30d ago	Fit
Only In Jakarta	30d ago	Fit
Cuban Tiger	46d ago	Fresh
Blown Away	105d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Kempton (AW) over 1m. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6

Based on 7 draws with historical results at this course and distance.