Connolly's RED MILLS Ladies Handicap Hurdle – Thurles

Thurles

16:23

Connolly's RED MILLS Ladies Handicap Hurdle

Date 2024-02-22

Distance 2m88y

Class

Going Soft

Type Hurdle

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize €6,195

Runners (14)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2	Star Official Bay J:Miss Georgie Benson(4) T:R Donohoe	J:Miss Georgie Benson(4) T:R Donohoe	167	p	142454	101	102	90	12d	—	—	+3	18.7	1.25/1	5/1 17%
C&D winner early this winter; ground/trip fine but stiff enough mark
8	Port Rashid Chestnut J:Miss J Townend T:Timothy Townend	J:Miss J Townend T:Timothy Townend	155	tp	-52774	89	106	77	9d	—	—	+3	14.3	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Dual course winner; shaped okay over fences last week; not ruled out with Townend booked
3	Lake Chad Grey J:Ms H Phillips(7) T:Philip Fenton	J:Ms H Phillips(7) T:Philip Fenton	165	—	242327	99	105	20	55d	0W/1P 1 run	—	+10	22.4	1.88/1	15/2 12%
In good form before latest run; good mark back over timber but best form on better ground
5	The Virginian Chestnut J:Miss A B O'Connor T:Padraig Roche	J:Miss A B O'Connor T:Padraig Roche	158	t	0-5496	92	107	79	70d	—	—	+4	12.9	2.25/1	9/1 10%
0-10 over jumps but shaped okay after five-month break on chase debut latest
12	Robindevidastar b/br J:Miss J Walton(2) T:P J Rothwell	J:Miss J Walton(2) T:P J Rothwell	152	b	510922	86	105	73	42d	—	—	+13	22	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Knocking on door again this winter; another solid run last time; same and mark
1	Bloomhill Bay J:Ms S Verling(7) T:Philip Fenton	J:Ms S Verling(7) T:Philip Fenton	168	—	16-370	102	101	89	15d	—	—	+3	17	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Dual point winner; low-key effort on h'cap bow early this month; shorter trip may not help
13	Future Proof Bay J:Anna McGuinness(7) T:P J Rothwell	J:Anna McGuinness(7) T:P J Rothwell	150	p	504066	84	105	91	38d	—	—	+1	11.4	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Has run okay without threatening in 2 runs of late; losing run goes back to 2020
14	Likable Chancer Bay J:Miss L Costello(7) T:Daniel John Howard	J:Miss L Costello(7) T:Daniel John Howard	146	tb	P22535	80	106	-	23d	—	—	+6	14.5	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Distant fifth at Limerick last time and all his best form is over further than this trip
10	Mullins Cross Bay J:Caragh Monaghan(7) T:John Joseph Hanlon	J:Caragh Monaghan(7) T:John Joseph Hanlon	153	—	245100	87	103	81	30d	—	—	+8	16.5	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Wide margin win at Bangor in December; struggled both runs since; shorter trip may help
11	Navy Waves Bay J:Miss A L Fitzgibbon(7) T:Mrs Julie Cashin	J:Miss A L Fitzgibbon(7) T:Mrs Julie Cashin	152	—	000009	86	98	83	9d	—	—	+2	11.7	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Maiden hurdle winner here last term but struggled since; drop to 2m needs to spark revival
6	Joeswayornoway Bay J:Miss Charlotte Butler(7) T:E Sheehy	J:Miss Charlotte Butler(7) T:E Sheehy	156	—	5-0530	90	103	50	23d	—	—	+5	11.9	3.50/1	14/1 7%
No wins over hurdles since 2021 and didn't go a yard latest; hard to recommend
4	Premier Queen Chestnut J:Sarah Kavanagh(4) T:Mrs Prunella Dobbs	J:Sarah Kavanagh(4) T:Mrs Prunella Dobbs	161	—	P-P8P0	95	105	33	15d	—	—	+9	12.1	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Both wins at Clonmel; really struggled this term finishing tailed off/pulled up each run
7	Queensteel Bay J:Ms C L McGoldrick(7) T:Leonard Whitmore	J:Ms C L McGoldrick(7) T:Leonard Whitmore	156	—	/7150/	90	99	-	751d	—	—	+13	15.9	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Won 3m maiden hurdle in 2021; not as good twice and off 751 days; trip may be too short
9	Smallcraftwarning Bay J:Miss T Quail(7) T:Miss Evanna McCutcheon	J:Miss T Quail(7) T:Miss Evanna McCutcheon	154	t	-479P0	88	104	80	130d	—	—	+7	10.3	10.00/1	40/1 2%
0-9; promising 4th in summer but nothing in h'caps since; off 130 days

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Star Official	5/1	9/2	9/2	4/1	9/2
Port Rashid	7/1	15/2	15/2	6/1	15/2
Lake Chad	7/1	15/2	15/2	5/1	15/2
The Virginian	9/1	17/2	9/1	17/2	8/1
Robindevidastar	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1
Bloomhill	13/2	13/2	13/2	9/2	13/2
Future Proof	8/1	8/1	8/1	15/2	15/2
Likable Chancer	11/1	10/1	10/1	8/1	10/1
Mullins Cross	12/1	10/1	10/1	11/1	10/1
Navy Waves	10/1	10/1	9/1	8/1	9/1
Joeswayornoway	14/1	14/1	14/1	10/1	14/1
Premier Queen	22/1	22/1	25/1	25/1	25/1
Queensteel	33/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1
Smallcraftwarning	40/1	33/1	28/1	28/1	33/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Lake Chad

22.4

OR: 12.3 Form: 6.5 Odds: 3.6

15/2

2nd

Robindevidastar

OR: 9 Form: 10.5 Odds: 2.5

8/1

3rd

Star Official

18.7

OR: 12.8 Form: 1.5 Odds: 4.4

5/1

Bloomhill

OR: 13 Form: 0 Odds: 4

13/2

Mullins Cross

16.5

OR: 9.3 Form: 5 Odds: 2.2

12/1

Queensteel

15.9

OR: 10 Form: 5 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Likable Chancer

14.5

OR: 7.5 Form: 4.6 Odds: 2.4

11/1

Port Rashid

14.3

OR: 9.8 Form: 1.5 Odds: 3.1

15/2

The Virginian

12.9

OR: 10.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

9/1

Premier Queen

12.1

OR: 11.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

25/1

Joeswayornoway

11.9

OR: 10 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Navy Waves

11.7

OR: 9 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

10/1

Future Proof

11.4

OR: 8.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

8/1

Smallcraftwarning

10.3

OR: 9.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

40/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Bloomhill	102	101	89
Star Official	101	102	90
Lake Chad	99	105	20
Premier Queen	95	105	33
The Virginian	92	107	79
Joeswayornoway	90	103	50
Queensteel	90	99	—
Port Rashid	89	106	77
Smallcraftwarning	88	104	80
Mullins Cross	87	103	81
Robindevidastar	86	105	73
Navy Waves	86	98	83
Future Proof	84	105	91
Likable Chancer	80	106	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Port Rashid	9d ago	Quick return
Navy Waves	9d ago	Quick return
Star Official	12d ago	Quick return
Bloomhill	15d ago	Fit
Premier Queen	15d ago	Fit
Likable Chancer	23d ago	Fit
Joeswayornoway	23d ago	Fit
Mullins Cross	30d ago	Fit
Future Proof	38d ago	Fit
Robindevidastar	42d ago	Fit
Lake Chad	55d ago	Fresh
The Virginian	70d ago	Fresh
Smallcraftwarning	130d ago	Long break
Queensteel	751d ago	Long break