McCandless Komatsu Handicap – Dundalk (AW)

Dundalk (AW)

17:45

McCandless Komatsu Handicap

Date 2024-03-08

Distance 1m

Class

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize €6,195

Runners (17)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (15)	Ferrybank Bay J:W J Lee T:T M Walsh	J:W J Lee T:T M Walsh	138	t	7784-1	60	69	58	42d	—	—	-7	20.9	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Enhanced a solid record at this venue with win six weeks ago, further progress is possible
6 (7)	Pascalia Bay J:Shane B Kelly T:J P Murtagh	J:Shane B Kelly T:J P Murtagh	136	p	7006-1	58	68	60	14d	—	—	-2	17.7	1.00/1	4/1 20%
C&D winner on first visit, faces a rematch with the experienced runner-up Bucky Larson
8 (8)	Hurricane Helen Grey J:Colin Keane T:Chris Timmons	J:Colin Keane T:Chris Timmons	135	—	4001-3	57	67	59	28d	—	—	-2	7.3	2.00/1	8/1 11%
C&D winner in December, closely matched with Ten To Ten on running here four weeks ago
11 (17)	Ten To Ten Chestnut J:Jack Cleary(7) T:Luke Comer	J:Jack Cleary(7) T:Luke Comer	127	p	0003-2	49	68	59	28d	—	—	-1	7.4	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Produced massive improvement here in December, showed that was not a fluke last month
12 (11)	Atbay Chestnut J:Shane Foley T:Mark Fahey	J:Shane Foley T:Mark Fahey	126	p	/0247-	48	74	-	246d	—	—	-4	5	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Lacks a recent run, moderate form at this venue, showed some promise on turf last season
2 (3)	River Derwent Bay J:James Ryan(5) T:Thomas Coyle	J:James Ryan(5) T:Thomas Coyle	140	tb	155-11	62	69	48	35d	—	—	-3	5.1	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Has gone up 9lb for two 7f wins but may remain competitive on first run for this stable
3 (14)	Bucky Larson Bay J:Dylan Browne McMonagle T:R Donohoe	J:Dylan Browne McMonagle T:R Donohoe	139	—	23-952	61	69	62	14d	—	—	-1	4.4	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Not without a chance of reversing recent 7f form with Pascalia on these altered terms
9 (2)	Super Cub Bay J:J M Sheridan T:Denis Gerard Hogan	J:J M Sheridan T:Denis Gerard Hogan	133	b	45060-	55	76	54	126d	—	—	-4	3.2	3.00/1	12/1 8%
5f winner in Britain in 2021, now back with the trainer for whom he has best Irish form
7 (13)	Gatsby Cap Bay J:Keithen Kennedy(7) T:John C McConnell	J:Keithen Kennedy(7) T:John C McConnell	135	p	50-131	57	67	62	28d	—	—	-3	3.7	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Has doubled his score at this track by winning two of his last three races; good chance
13 (16)	Suityourselfboss Bay J:Wayne Hassett(7) T:Michael J Browne	J:Wayne Hassett(7) T:Michael J Browne	126	p	5007-3	48	67	58	56d	—	—	+1	3.9	7.00/1	28/1 3%
12-race maiden comes into the reckoning following third behind Gatsby Cap in January
14 (10)	Saoirses Lulaby Bay J:Gavin Ryan T:P J F Murphy	J:Gavin Ryan T:P J F Murphy	125	p	04303-	47	75	56	79d	—	—	+1	5.7	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Made the frame in three of her four starts here last year, needs to find a bit extra now
1 (9)	Dutch Glory Bay J:Gary Halpin T:Sean Davis	J:Gary Halpin T:Sean Davis	140	—	3053-7	62	68	58	35d	—	—	0	4	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Not beaten far in three 7f races since December, a bit more is needed here on stable debut
10 (12)	Manhattan Dandy b/br J:Robert Whearty(5) T:Thomas Coyle	J:Robert Whearty(5) T:Thomas Coyle	127	—	02138-	49	75	-	130d	—	—	+6	9.6	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Best form on turf has been in testing conditions, 0-13 record on AW is a negative
5 (1)	Chopsticks Bay J:Nathan Crosse T:S M Duffy	J:Nathan Crosse T:S M Duffy	136	t	8-808	58	64	36	28d	—	—	+1	2.5	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Ordinary maiden form, huge price when down the field in his first handicap, tongue-tie on
NR (6)	Cousin Shay Bay J:TBC T:John C McConnell	J: T:John C McConnell	129	—	305-18	51	71	61	28d	—	—	—	0.3	—	—
First reserve, C&D winner in January, plenty to find with Ten To Ten on running last time
NR (4)	Kudbegood Bay J:TBC T:P J F Murphy	J: T:P J F Murphy	125	p	206-70	47	65	53	28d	—	—	—	0	—	—
Second reserve, all three wins have come over C&D, out of form on his last four visits
NR (5)	Nibras Rainbow Bay J:TBC T:Paul W Flynn	J: T:Paul W Flynn	138	p	4022-0	60	71	62	28d	—	—	—	2.5	—	—
Third reserve, twice C&D runner-up in December, down the field behind Gatsby Cap on latest

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Ferrybank	11/4	5/2	5/2	11/4	5/2
Pascalia	10/3	10/3	3/1	4/1	10/3
Hurricane Helen	15/2	8/1	8/1	15/2	8/1
Ten To Ten	9/1	9/1	11/1	9/1	9/1
Atbay	9/1	9/1	10/1	9/1	9/1
River Derwent	12/1	10/1	10/1	9/1	10/1
Bucky Larson	16/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Super Cub	12/1	11/1	11/1	11/1	11/1
Gatsby Cap	20/1	11/1	11/1	10/1	11/1
Suityourselfboss	25/1	28/1	25/1	25/1	25/1
Saoirses Lulaby	25/1	20/1	16/1	20/1	18/1
Dutch Glory	33/1	28/1	25/1	25/1	28/1
Manhattan Dandy	40/1	20/1	28/1	28/1	28/1
Chopsticks	66/1	66/1	66/1	80/1	80/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Ferrybank

20.9

OR: 2.5 Form: 10 Odds: 8.4

11/4

2nd

Pascalia

17.7

OR: 2 Form: 10 Odds: 5.7

4/1

3rd

Manhattan Dandy

9.6

OR: 0 Form: 8.6 Odds: 1

40/1

Ten To Ten

7.4

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 2.4

11/1

Hurricane Helen

7.3

OR: 1.8 Form: 3 Odds: 2.5

8/1

Saoirses Lulaby

5.7

OR: 0 Form: 4.5 Odds: 1.2

25/1

River Derwent

5.1

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

12/1

Atbay

OR: 0 Form: 2.5 Odds: 2.5

10/1

Bucky Larson

4.4

OR: 2.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Dutch Glory

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 1

33/1

Suityourselfboss

3.9

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 0.9

28/1

Gatsby Cap

3.7

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

20/1

Super Cub

3.2

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

12/1

Chopsticks

2.5

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

80/1

Nibras Rainbow

2.5

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Cousin Shay

0.3

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Kudbegood

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
River Derwent	62	69	48
Dutch Glory	62	68	58
Bucky Larson	61	69	62
Ferrybank	60	69	58
Nibras Rainbow	60	71	62
Pascalia	58	68	60
Chopsticks	58	64	36
Hurricane Helen	57	67	59
Gatsby Cap	57	67	62
Super Cub	55	76	54
Cousin Shay	51	71	61
Ten To Ten	49	68	59
Manhattan Dandy	49	75	—
Atbay	48	74	—
Suityourselfboss	48	67	58
Saoirses Lulaby	47	75	56
Kudbegood	47	65	53

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Pascalia	14d ago	Fit
Bucky Larson	14d ago	Fit
Hurricane Helen	28d ago	Fit
Ten To Ten	28d ago	Fit
Gatsby Cap	28d ago	Fit
Chopsticks	28d ago	Fit
Cousin Shay	28d ago	Fit
Kudbegood	28d ago	Fit
Nibras Rainbow	28d ago	Fit
River Derwent	35d ago	Fit
Dutch Glory	35d ago	Fit
Ferrybank	42d ago	Fit
Suityourselfboss	56d ago	Fresh
Saoirses Lulaby	79d ago	Fresh
Super Cub	126d ago	Long break
Manhattan Dandy	130d ago	Long break
Atbay	246d ago	Long break