Guinness Surge Handicap Chase – Newcastle

Newcastle

15:47

Guinness Surge Handicap Chase

Date 2024-03-16

Distance 2m7f91y

Class Class 5

Going Heavy

Type Chase

Surface Turf

Age Band 5yo+

Prize £3,294

Runners (5)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
5	Heritier De Sivola Chestnut J:Joe Williamson(5) T:Philip Kirby	J:Joe Williamson(5) T:Philip Kirby	162	p	8P0521	91	105	49	2d	—	—	-7	38.8	0.23/1	10/11 52%
Looks well treated under a penalty for his wide-margin win at Hexham on Thursday.
4	Torosay Bay J:Stephen Mulqueen T:Lucinda Russell	J:Stephen Mulqueen T:Lucinda Russell	159	—	3-0P32	88	107	67	11d	—	—	-3	17.8	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Stayed on for second here (2m4f, heavy) latest; should appreciate this step up in trip.
2	Shadows In The Sky Brown J:Danny McMenamin T:Chris Grant	J:Danny McMenamin T:Chris Grant	167	tp	P-43P5	96	100	86	27d	—	—	-1	16.5	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Player if repeating his season's best but needs to improve on his other form this season.
3	Canelo Chestnut J:Kevin Brogan T:Ben Haslam	J:Kevin Brogan T:Ben Haslam	165	—	66-P66	94	98	81	27d	—	—	+4	13.7	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Plummeting in the handicap; would be interesting if the market speaks in his favour.
1	Without Conviction Bay J:Patrick Wadge(3) T:Lucinda Russell	J:Patrick Wadge(3) T:Lucinda Russell	168	tp	P22477	97	106	84	27d	—	—	+10	15.9	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Well treated on form earlier in the season; no surprise if she bounces back.

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Heritier De Sivola	evn	10/11	evn	10/11	10/11
Torosay	10/3	10/3	7/2	10/3	3/1
Shadows In The Sky	4/1	7/2	4/1	4/1	7/2
Canelo	11/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	10/1
Without Conviction	14/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Heritier De Sivola

38.8

OR: 10.3 Form: 13.2 Odds: 15.4

10/11

2nd

Torosay

17.8

OR: 9.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 6.2

7/2

3rd

Shadows In The Sky

16.5

OR: 11.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5

4/1

Without Conviction

15.9

OR: 11.8 Form: 2.5 Odds: 1.6

14/1

Canelo

13.7

OR: 11 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

11/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Without Conviction	97	106	84
Shadows In The Sky	96	100	86
Canelo	94	98	81
Heritier De Sivola	91	105	49
Torosay	88	107	67

Last Run