Download The Raceday Ready App "Confined" Handicap (No Win Since 2023 Flat Turf Season) (Div I)

Newcastle (AW)

16:50

Date 2024-04-08

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £5,234

Winning Time 1m 27.19s (slow by 3.39s)

Result

Pos	Horse	SP	Btn
1st	Odd Socks Havana (GB) Callum Rodriguez · Rebecca Menzies	5/1	Won
2nd	Coconut Bay (GB) Jason Hart · Tristan Davidson	6/1	0.3
3rd	Darker (GB) James Sullivan · Ruth Carr	14/1	.75
4th	Musical Masquerade (GB) Billy Garritty · Michael & David Easterby	28/1	0.2
5th	Northbound (IRE) Ryan Sexton · Peter Niven	8/1	.5
5th	Marie's Jewel (IRE) Jonny Peate · Roger Fell & Sean Murray	9/2F	0
7th	Written Broadcast (IRE) Brandon Wilkie · Ollie Pears	22/1	0.2
8th	Secret Daay (GB) David Allan · David Thompson	13/2	0.3
9th	Variety Island (GB) Lewis Edmunds · Simon Whitaker	11/2	0.1
10th	Captain Vallo (IRE) Rowan Scott · Phillip Makin	10/1	.5
11th	Violeta (IRE) Andrew Breslin · Ben Haslam	14/1	1.75
12th	Breaking Records (IRE) Connor Beasley · Maurice Barnes	125/1	46

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (7)	Marie's Jewel Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	133	—	8-6252	53	68	51	14d	—	—	-10	5.2	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Runner-up here on two of his last three starts and a first win may well be imminent
10 (8)	Variety Island Bay J:Lewis Edmunds T:Simon Whitaker	J:Lewis Edmunds T:Simon Whitaker	127	—	2870-9	47	64	50	17d	—	—	-9	3.6	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Poor strike-rate but may have needed reappearance run and he's effective over this C&D
7 (10)	Odd Socks Havana Bay J:Callum Rodriguez T:Rebecca Menzies	J:Callum Rodriguez T:Rebecca Menzies	131	tp	636234	51	68	44	27d	—	—	-3	8.8	1.38/1	11/2 15%
In good form over 1m here of late and he could have a part to play
9 (3)	Secret Daay Bay J:David Allan T:David Thompson	J:David Allan T:David Thompson	128	b	-33283	48	69	63	17d	—	—	-1	10.1	1.50/1	6/1 14%
0-20 but has run several good races here, including when third over C&D last time
11 (2)	Coconut Bay Bay J:Jason Hart T:Tristan Davidson	J:Jason Hart T:Tristan Davidson	126	—	536642	46	67	57	8d	—	—	-1	8.1	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Just 1-32 but some good runs this year and went close at Southwell eight days ago
5 (4)	Northbound Bay J:Ryan Sexton T:Peter Niven	J:Ryan Sexton T:Peter Niven	134	—	67-636	54	67	46	49d	—	—	-5	3.4	2.00/1	8/1 11%
No threat at Wolverhampton last time but close third over C&D previously; not written off
1 (5)	Captain Vallo Chestnut J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	137	—	7-4956	57	70	48	17d	—	—	-3	3.7	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Hasn't run badly over 6f here the last twice; needs to prove stamina now back up in trip
3 (9)	Violeta Bay J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Ben Haslam	J:Andrew Breslin(3) T:Ben Haslam	135	—	7955-0	55	67	40	93d	—	—	-3	2.9	3.00/1	12/1 8%
0-17 and below par at Southwell when last seen but has a solid record at this course
12 (12)	Darker Bay J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	126	p	3550-6	46	67	46	21d	—	—	-4	1.4	3.50/1	14/1 7%
He's popped up with the odd good run but he remains a maiden after 17 starts
8 (1)	Written Broadcast Grey J:Brandon Wilkie(5) T:Ollie Pears	J:Brandon Wilkie(5) T:Ollie Pears	128	b	954528	48	66	56	8d	—	—	+1	4.4	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Slightly below par last time but in good form previously (including over C&D); a possible
4 (11)	Musical Masquerade Grey J:Billy Garritty T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Billy Garritty T:Michael & David Easterby	135	b	7770	55	62	35	32d	—	—	-1	2	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Well beaten at 66-1 here on handicap debut but over 1m4f; not a forlorn hope
2 (6)	Breaking Records Bay J:Connor Beasley T:Maurice Barnes	J:Connor Beasley T:Maurice Barnes	135	t	/7560/	55	50	-	—	—	—	+1	1.4	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Struggled in 2021 when last seen on the Flat; hasn't shone over hurdles subsequently

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Marie's Jewel	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1
Variety Island	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1
Odd Socks Havana	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Secret Daay	6/1	6/1	6/1	6/1	6/1
Coconut Bay	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Northbound	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1
Captain Vallo	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1
Violeta	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Darker	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Written Broadcast	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1
Musical Masquerade	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1
Breaking Records	100/1	100/1	100/1	100/1	100/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Secret Daay

10.1

OR: 0 Form: 7 Odds: 3.1

6/1

2nd

Odd Socks Havana

8.8

OR: 0.3 Form: 5.2 Odds: 3.3

11/2

3rd

Coconut Bay

8.1

OR: 0 Form: 5.6 Odds: 2.5

15/2

Marie's Jewel

5.2

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

4/1

Written Broadcast

4.4

OR: 0 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0.9

22/1

Captain Vallo

3.7

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

10/1

Variety Island

3.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

5/1

Northbound

3.4

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

8/1

Violeta

2.9

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

12/1

Musical Masquerade

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

28/1

Darker

1.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

14/1

Breaking Records

1.4

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

100/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Captain Vallo	57	70	48
Violeta	55	67	40
Musical Masquerade	55	62	35
Breaking Records	55	50	—
Northbound	54	67	46
Marie's Jewel	53	68	51
Odd Socks Havana	51	68	44
Secret Daay	48	69	63
Written Broadcast	48	66	56
Variety Island	47	64	50
Coconut Bay	46	67	57
Darker	46	67	46

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Coconut Bay	8d ago	Quick return
Written Broadcast	8d ago	Quick return
Marie's Jewel	14d ago	Fit
Variety Island	17d ago	Fit
Secret Daay	17d ago	Fit
Captain Vallo	17d ago	Fit
Darker	21d ago	Fit
Odd Socks Havana	27d ago	Fit
Musical Masquerade	32d ago	Fit
Northbound	49d ago	Fresh
Violeta	93d ago	Long break
Breaking Records	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.