Park Lodge Hot Shots Handicap – Doncaster

Doncaster

18:40

Park Lodge Hot Shots Handicap

Date 2024-04-27

Distance 6f2y

Class Class 3

Going Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £9,936

Runners (19)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
11 (12)	Ascot Adventure Chestnut J:Daniel Tudhope T:David O'Meara	J:Daniel Tudhope T:David O'Meara	130	p	4140-3	83	104	91	34d	—	—	0	15.7	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Ayr Bronze Cup winner in September; good 3rd over 7f here on return; should go well
17 (9)	Mubhijah Chestnut J:Saffie Osborne T:Ed Walker	J:Saffie Osborne T:Ed Walker	124	—	22214-	77	100	73	194d	—	—	+10	22.1	1.38/1	11/2 15%
7f win on stable debut but drops in trip and could probably use the ground drying out
4 (4)	Lethal Nymph Bay J:Joe Fanning T:Paul Midgley	J:Joe Fanning T:Paul Midgley	134	—	25-730	87	101	80	11d	—	—	+1	12.3	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Newcastle 3rd last month was promising; had an excuse last time; good record here; chance
3 (17)	Magical Spirit Chestnut J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	135	—	76006-	88	103	89	168d	—	—	+4	11.7	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Won the corresponding event off 6lb higher last season; hasn't had a run this time around
12 (14)	It Just Takes Time Brown J:Jack Garritty T:Mark Walford	J:Jack Garritty T:Mark Walford	130	—	60067-	83	101	99	165d	—	—	+3	10.4	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Returns to action off a dangerous mark; might need this first run since November though
18 (15)	Fantasy Master Chestnut J:Shane Kelly T:Darryll Holland	J:Shane Kelly T:Darryll Holland	124	p	243-76	77	102	92	14d	—	—	+2	8.5	2.75/1	11/1 8%
C&D win last summer worked out well; two runs this year should have him spot on; solid
9 (2)	Hectic Bay J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Jonny Peate(3) T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	130	—	7536-0	83	102	86	16d	—	—	+4	9.9	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Can step up on his reappearance effort but usually seen over further
13 (11)	Snazzy Jazzy Bay J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	J:Dale Swift T:Seb Spencer	129	—	0356-9	82	99	83	18d	—	—	+4	9.6	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Conditions will be fine but he needs to leave this month's Thirsk reappearance well behind
5 (1)	Dakota Gold Bay J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	J:Connor Beasley T:Michael Dods	134	—	0000-0	87	102	100	34d	—	—	+6	10.6	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Signs of age catching up now; can do better with a run behind him but carries risk
1 (16)	Sterling Knight Bay J:Morgan Cole(5) T:Ed Dunlop	J:Morgan Cole(5) T:Ed Dunlop	137	p	55135-	90	101	76	128d	—	—	+13	18.5	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Conditions fine and he's on a winning mark; no surprise to see a bold showing
16 (3)	Quintus Arrius Bay J:Ben Robinson T:Peter Niven	J:Ben Robinson T:Peter Niven	128	p	10308-	81	100	78	198d	—	—	+9	12.1	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Won twice for K Ryan last year but two poor runs for new yard; plenty to prove on return
8 (13)	Rathbone Bay J:David Probert T:Michael Herrington	J:David Probert T:Michael Herrington	132	—	1100-9	85	102	88	21d	—	—	+6	9.6	5.50/1	22/1 4%
C&D winner at the Leger meeting but low-key return this month & may need more time
6 (18)	Able Kane Bay J:Ross Coakley T:Rod Millman	J:Ross Coakley T:Rod Millman	133	—	27038-	86	102	94	182d	—	—	+10	12.9	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Course winner; on a fair mark but his record fresh doesn't point to this being his day
2 (8)	Good Earth Bay J:Connor Planas(3) T:Michael Herrington	J:Connor Planas(3) T:Michael Herrington	136	—	0100-0	89	100	89	21d	—	—	+8	10.3	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Dropped away on his AW return three weeks ago; likely vulnerable again off same mark
14 (19)	Oso Rapido Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	J:Rowan Scott T:Roger Fell & Sean Murray	129	—	2166-0	82	102	87	18d	—	—	+7	8.5	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Conditions shouldn't be a problem but his return at Thirsk wasn't full of promise
15 (5)	Roundhay Park Chestnut J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	J:Faye McManoman T:Nigel Tinkler	128	—	7107-0	81	101	92	16d	—	—	+6	8.2	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Multiple winner, including C&D on soft, but reappearance was quiet and others are safer
NR (10)	Katey Kontent Chestnut J:TBC T:Clive Cox	J: T:Clive Cox	132	—	73432-	85	102	84	205d	—	—	—	16.8	—	—
Useful 2yo; series of good handicap runs last summer; still low mileage; interesting
NR (6)	Holy Fire Bay J:TBC T:Charlie Fellowes	J: T:Charlie Fellowes	130	v	62-772	83	101	62	26d	—	—	—	8.3	—	—
Career best when 2nd at Kempton 26 days ago; has to prove her effectiveness on turf though
NR (7)	Prairie Falcon Bay J:TBC T:Michael Dods	J: T:Michael Dods	123	b	283-28	76	102	96	11d	—	—	—	6.5	—	—
Winless since 2yo campaign; good return but not in the same form latest; now blinkered

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Ascot Adventure	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1
Mubhijah	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Lethal Nymph	6/1	6/1	6/1	6/1	6/1
Magical Spirit	17/2	17/2	17/2	17/2	17/2
It Just Takes Time	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1
Fantasy Master	11/1	11/1	11/1	11/1	11/1
Hectic	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Snazzy Jazzy	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Dakota Gold	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Sterling Knight	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Quintus Arrius	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1
Rathbone	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1
Able Kane	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1
Good Earth	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1
Oso Rapido	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Roundhay Park	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Mubhijah

22.1

OR: 6.8 Form: 12 Odds: 3.3

11/2

2nd

Sterling Knight

18.5

OR: 10 Form: 7.1 Odds: 1.4

14/1

3rd

Katey Kontent

16.8

OR: 8.8 Form: 8 Odds: 0

—

Ascot Adventure

15.7

OR: 8.3 Form: 3 Odds: 4.4

4/1

Able Kane

12.9

OR: 9 Form: 3.1 Odds: 0.8

25/1

Lethal Nymph

12.3

OR: 9.3 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

6/1

Quintus Arrius

12.1

OR: 7.8 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0.9

22/1

Magical Spirit

11.7

OR: 9.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.2

17/2

Dakota Gold

10.6

OR: 9.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

14/1

It Just Takes Time

10.4

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

9/1

Good Earth

10.3

OR: 9.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

33/1

Hectic

9.9

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

12/1

Snazzy Jazzy

9.6

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.6

12/1

Rathbone

9.6

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

22/1

Fantasy Master

8.5

OR: 6.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

11/1

Oso Rapido

8.5

OR: 8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

40/1

Holy Fire

8.3

OR: 8.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Roundhay Park

8.2

OR: 7.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

40/1

Prairie Falcon

6.5

OR: 6.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Sterling Knight	90	101	76
Good Earth	89	100	89
Magical Spirit	88	103	89
Lethal Nymph	87	101	80
Dakota Gold	87	102	100
Able Kane	86	102	94
Rathbone	85	102	88
Katey Kontent	85	102	84
Ascot Adventure	83	104	91
It Just Takes Time	83	101	99
Hectic	83	102	86
Holy Fire	83	101	62
Snazzy Jazzy	82	99	83
Oso Rapido	82	102	87
Quintus Arrius	81	100	78
Roundhay Park	81	101	92
Mubhijah	77	100	73
Fantasy Master	77	102	92
Prairie Falcon	76	102	96

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Lethal Nymph	11d ago	Quick return
Prairie Falcon	11d ago	Quick return
Fantasy Master	14d ago	Fit
Hectic	16d ago	Fit
Roundhay Park	16d ago	Fit
Snazzy Jazzy	18d ago	Fit
Oso Rapido	18d ago	Fit
Rathbone	21d ago	Fit
Good Earth	21d ago	Fit
Holy Fire	26d ago	Fit
Ascot Adventure	34d ago	Fit
Dakota Gold	34d ago	Fit
Sterling Knight	128d ago	Long break
It Just Takes Time	165d ago	Long break
Magical Spirit	168d ago	Long break
Able Kane	182d ago	Long break
Mubhijah	194d ago	Long break
Quintus Arrius	198d ago	Long break
Katey Kontent	205d ago	Long break

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Oso Rapido	Front Runner
Sterling Knight	Prominent

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 19 runners classified.