Visit Tipperary Handicap – Tipperary

Tipperary

17:08

Visit Tipperary Handicap

Date 2024-05-29

Distance 1m4f110y

Class

Going Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize €6,490

Runners (21)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
8 (13)	Paradise Lost Bay J:W J Lee T:Charles O'Brien	J:W J Lee T:Charles O'Brien	139	—	7558-5	62	68	53	20d	—	—	-8	7.4	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Some fair Flat efforts, including on recent Gowran comeback; entitled to come on for that
14 (12)	War Thunder Bay J:Robert Whearty(5) T:Paul W Flynn	J:Robert Whearty(5) T:Paul W Flynn	130	—	8650-1	53	66	49	24d	—	—	+2	14.1	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Well backed when making winning debut for this yard at Sligo; that was no fluke
2 (5)	Forlio Chestnut J:Colin Keane T:Paul W Flynn	J:Colin Keane T:Paul W Flynn	142	t	6455/1	65	69	55	13d	—	—	+6	16.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Up 5lb for winning stable debut but he's entitled to improve some more
9 (17)	Firm Belief Bay J:Dylan Browne McMonagle T:Rodger Sweeney	J:Dylan Browne McMonagle T:Rodger Sweeney	137	—	6-0565	60	71	45	11d	—	—	-4	4.9	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Best form has been at a stiff Navan and hasn't shone on three visits here
10 (14)	Spinning Web Bay J:N G McCullagh T:Ms Margaret Mullins	J:N G McCullagh T:Ms Margaret Mullins	134	—	512-83	57	66	55	13d	—	—	-4	3.9	2.25/1	9/1 10%
One-paced third behind Forlio and Nusra at Limerick; this longer trip a positive
5 (2)	L'Un Deux Trois Grey J:Ronan Whelan T:Oliver McKiernan	J:Ronan Whelan T:Oliver McKiernan	140	tp	1569-5	63	73	53	16d	—	—	-2	5.2	2.50/1	10/1 9%
C&D winner on soft last summer and back to the same mark; nice run last time
6 (16)	Folly Beach Bay J:Ben Coen T:M A Molloy	J:Ben Coen T:M A Molloy	139	h	82-277	62	67	43	20d	—	—	-1	4.4	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Not at her best the last twice but still considered on ground that she handles
4 (7)	Glyde Ranger Chestnut J:James Ryan(5) T:T G McCourt	J:James Ryan(5) T:T G McCourt	140	—	3-3025	63	67	17	11d	—	—	+2	6.7	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Close second to War Thunder at Sligo; got too far behind at Navan latest
7 (10)	Nusra Bay J:J M Sheridan T:G Ahern	J:J M Sheridan T:G Ahern	139	—	16-612	62	69	56	13d	—	—	0	4.2	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Has won on soft and did little wrong when edged out by Forlio at Limerick
R19 (3)	Tom The Plasterer Bay J:Wesley Joyce(5) T:Luke Comer	J:Wesley Joyce(5) T:Luke Comer	128	p	9-3604	51	70	40	12d	—	—	-3	1.5	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Reserve; close fourth of 21 over this far at Leopardstown 12 days ago
13 (15)	Santa Catarina Bay J:Wayne Hassett(5) T:W P Browne	J:Wayne Hassett(5) T:W P Browne	130	h	7/96-9	53	71	29	35d	—	—	-1	1.5	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Twelve defeats include four claimers; ninth of 14 over 1m5f at Gowran last time
15 (8)	Sceptred Isle Bay J:Siobhan Rutledge(3) T:G A Kingston	J:Siobhan Rutledge(3) T:G A Kingston	128	—	80/9-3	51	72	27	11d	—	—	+1	4	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Close up over 1m5f at Navan, where a bold mid-race move softened her up late on
16 (4)	Gardone Brown J:Leigh Roche T:E McNamara	J:Leigh Roche T:E McNamara	125	—	8008-8	48	70	46	22d	—	—	-3	1.2	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Has hinted at winning potential in handicaps (1m2f-1m6f) but still has to raise his game
18 (20)	Chilean Bay J:Nathan Crosse T:Luke Comer	J:Nathan Crosse T:Luke Comer	124	tp	07040-	47	75	62	224d	—	—	-2	0.6	8.25/1	33/1 3%
His Group-race days are long gone and he's become inconsistent; lacks a run
3 (9)	Desert Friend Chestnut J:Gary Carroll T:Mrs Denise Foster	J:Gary Carroll T:Mrs Denise Foster	140	—	0/39-8	63	72	55	—	—	—	+1	4	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Nearly three years since he last won on the Flat; unseated over fences latest when beaten
12 (19)	Pale Moonlight Bay J:Alan Persse(7) T:M A Cahill	J:Alan Persse(7) T:M A Cahill	131	p	46879-	54	75	55	225d	—	—	0	1.5	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Record of 1-17 for Dermot Weld and departed that yard for only 1,000 euros
17 (21)	Camino Mission Chestnut J:Jack Cleary(7) T:Seamus Fahey	J:Jack Cleary(7) T:Seamus Fahey	124	—	/00/0-	47	70	-	—	—	—	-1	0.3	16.50/1	66/1 1%
18-race maiden under both codes and never placed; has more to prove than a lot of these
NR (18)	Evolving Bay J:Luke McAteer T:Andrew Kinirons	J:Luke McAteer T:Andrew Kinirons	142	—	435-00	65	66	35	22d	—	—	—	3.8	—	—
1m6f winner in France; beaten about 14l in two 1m2f handicaps for current yard
NR (1)	Construct Bay J:Donagh O'Connor T:John C McConnell	J:Donagh O'Connor T:John C McConnell	131	t	8-0000	54	76	36	11d	—	—	—	1	—	—
Doesn't arrive here in the same form as others and he wants faster ground ideally
NR (6)	No Trouble Bay J:TBC T:John C McConnell	J: T:John C McConnell	133	—	078-09	56	71	34	12d	—	—	—	1.5	—	—
Reserve; exposed 8yo who has done most of his winning on the AW
NR (11)	Maura's Gift Bay J:TBC T:Paul W Flynn	J: T:Paul W Flynn	129	p	3-6200	52	70	46	12d	—	—	—	2.6	—	—
Reserve; mostly campaigned on the AW these days; behind at Leopardstown

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Paradise Lost	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1	4/1
War Thunder	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Forlio	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2	13/2
Firm Belief	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1	8/1
Spinning Web	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1
L'Un Deux Trois	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1	10/1
Folly Beach	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Glyde Ranger	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Nusra	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
Tom The Plasterer	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
Santa Catarina	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1
Sceptred Isle	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1
Gardone	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	16/1
Chilean	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1
Desert Friend	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1	28/1
Pale Moonlight	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Camino Mission	66/1	66/1	66/1	66/1	66/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Forlio

16.6

OR: 3.8 Form: 10 Odds: 2.9

13/2

2nd

War Thunder

14.1

OR: 0.8 Form: 10 Odds: 3.3

11/2

3rd

Paradise Lost

7.4

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

4/1

Glyde Ranger

6.7

OR: 3.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.4

14/1

L'Un Deux Trois

5.2

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

10/1

Firm Belief

4.9

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

8/1

Folly Beach

4.4

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

14/1

Nusra

4.2

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

16/1

Sceptred Isle

OR: 0.3 Form: 3 Odds: 0.8

25/1

Desert Friend

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

28/1

Spinning Web

3.9

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

9/1

Evolving

3.8

OR: 3.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Maura's Gift

2.6

OR: 0.5 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0

—

Tom The Plasterer

1.5

OR: 0.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

16/1

Santa Catarina

1.5

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

28/1

Pale Moonlight

1.5

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

40/1

No Trouble

1.5

OR: 1.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Gardone

1.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

16/1

Construct

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Chilean

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

33/1

Camino Mission

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

66/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Forlio	65	69	55
Evolving	65	66	35
L'Un Deux Trois	63	73	53
Glyde Ranger	63	67	17
Desert Friend	63	72	55
Paradise Lost	62	68	53
Folly Beach	62	67	43
Nusra	62	69	56
Firm Belief	60	71	45
Spinning Web	57	66	55
No Trouble	56	71	34
Pale Moonlight	54	75	55
Construct	54	76	36
War Thunder	53	66	49
Santa Catarina	53	71	29
Maura's Gift	52	70	46
Tom The Plasterer	51	70	40
Sceptred Isle	51	72	27
Gardone	48	70	46
Chilean	47	75	62
Camino Mission	47	70	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Firm Belief	11d ago	Quick return
Glyde Ranger	11d ago	Quick return
Sceptred Isle	11d ago	Quick return
Construct	11d ago	Quick return
Tom The Plasterer	12d ago	Quick return
No Trouble	12d ago	Quick return
Maura's Gift	12d ago	Quick return
Forlio	13d ago	Quick return
Spinning Web	13d ago	Quick return
Nusra	13d ago	Quick return
L'Un Deux Trois	16d ago	Fit
Paradise Lost	20d ago	Fit
Folly Beach	20d ago	Fit
Gardone	22d ago	Fit
Evolving	22d ago	Fit
War Thunder	24d ago	Fit
Santa Catarina	35d ago	Fit
Chilean	224d ago	Long break
Pale Moonlight	225d ago	Long break
Desert Friend	—	—
Camino Mission	—	—

Pace Profile

Horse	Running Style
Sceptred Isle	Prominent
Firm Belief	Hold Up

Inferred from horse comments. 2 of 21 runners classified.