IRE-Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish Novice Stakes (GBB/IRE Incentive Race)

Chelmsford (AW)

18:10

Date 2024-08-15

Distance 6f

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £4,187

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (7)	Fire Flame Bay J:James Doyle T:Roger Varian	J:James Doyle T:Roger Varian	133	—	5	-	79	-	19d	—	—	-28	13.3	0.28/1	11/10 48%
Held his own when fifth of seven on Ascot debut (6f, good to firm); high on the shortlist.
9 (8)	Rogue Invader Bay J:Robert Havlin T:Alice Haynes	J:Robert Havlin T:Alice Haynes	133	—	6	-	78	-	26d	—	—	-11	4.4	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Easy to back, but signs of ability when sixth of 11 on Newbury debut (6f; 25-1); AW debut
6 (9)	Gold Star Hero Chestnut J:Hector Crouch T:Michael Bell	J:Hector Crouch T:Michael Bell	133	—	4	-	72	-	15d	—	1W/1P 1 run	-9	3.6	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Plenty of speed prior to weakening late at Redcar (6f) a fortnight ago; early days.
5 (5)	Gilet Bay J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Warren Greatrex	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Warren Greatrex	133	—	72	-	73	63	17d	—	—	-3	8.1	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Runner-up at Southwell (6f novice; 28-1) latest; potentially further improvement to come.
11 (1)	Watch Blue Point Bay J:Neil Callan T:James Tate	J:Neil Callan T:James Tate	133	—	87	-	65	-	26d	—	—	-9	3.6	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Failed to negotiate a clear passage at Ripon (5f) latest; gelded since & moves up in trip.
8 (4)	Launceston Chestnut J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	J:Luke Morris T:Sir Mark Prescott Bt	133	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.9	6.25/1	25/1 4%
55,000gns yearling; dam half-sister to a 1m1f Group 3 winner; yard in great form
12 (12)	Spring Bay J:Daniel Tudhope T:Richard Hughes	J:Daniel Tudhope T:Richard Hughes	128	—	86	-	60	-	102d	—	—	-2	0.9	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Faded at Salisbury (5f, soft); surprising if she's capable of mixing it with the boys.
1 (3)	Crest Of Esteem Chestnut J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	J:Rhys Clutterbuck T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	133	—	85	-	69	-	12d	—	—	-2	0.6	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Only fifth of seven at Windsor (6f, good to firm) 12 days ago; switches to AW seeking more
2 (10)	Dandy G Boy Chestnut J:Marco Ghiani T:Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole	J:Marco Ghiani T:Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole	133	—	6	-	45	-	93d	—	—	-2	0.6	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Last of six on debut at Chepstow (5f) in May; sizeable leap forward needed; AW debut.
7 (2)	I Follow Rivers Chestnut J:George Wood T:Richard Spencer	J:George Wood T:Richard Spencer	133	—	00	-	47	-	29d	—	—	-1	0.3	50.00/1	200/1 0%
Well beaten in two 5f starts; now up in trip; others are far more convincing.
10 (6)	Token Gesture Grey J:Tyler Heard T:Mark Usher	J:Tyler Heard T:Mark Usher	133	—	9	-	15	-	42d	—	—	0	0.2	50.00/1	200/1 0%
Ran green and always behind when last of nine on Newbury debut (6f; 50-1)
NR (11)	Force And Valour Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:George Scott	J:NON-RUNNER T:George Scott	133	—	3	-	76	-	12d	—	—	—	3	—	—
Started slowly but soon recovered when third of seven on his debut at Windsor 13 days ago.

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Fire Flame	11/10	evn	11/10
Rogue Invader	9/2	9/2	9/2
Gold Star Hero	11/2	13/2	6/1
Gilet	7/1	7/1	7/1
Watch Blue Point	8/1	13/2	8/1
Launceston	25/1	22/1	25/1
Spring	33/1	25/1	33/1
Crest Of Esteem	40/1	33/1	40/1
Dandy G Boy	50/1	40/1	40/1
I Follow Rivers	200/1	125/1	125/1
Token Gesture	200/1	125/1	150/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Fire Flame

13.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 13.3

11/10

2nd

Gilet

8.1

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 3.1

7/1

3rd

Rogue Invader

4.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 4.4

9/2

Gold Star Hero

3.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Watch Blue Point

3.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

8/1

Force And Valour

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 0

—

Launceston

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

25/1

Spring

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Crest Of Esteem

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Dandy G Boy

0.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

50/1

I Follow Rivers

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

200/1

Token Gesture

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

200/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Fire Flame	—	79	—
Rogue Invader	—	78	—
Gold Star Hero	—	72	—
Gilet	—	73	63
Watch Blue Point	—	65	—
Launceston	—	—	—
Spring	—	60	—
Crest Of Esteem	—	69	—
Dandy G Boy	—	45	—
I Follow Rivers	—	47	—
Token Gesture	—	15	—
Force And Valour	—	76	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Crest Of Esteem	12d ago	Quick return
Force And Valour	12d ago	Quick return
Gold Star Hero	15d ago	Fit
Gilet	17d ago	Fit
Fire Flame	19d ago	Fit
Rogue Invader	26d ago	Fit
Watch Blue Point	26d ago	Fit
I Follow Rivers	29d ago	Fit
Token Gesture	42d ago	Fit
Dandy G Boy	93d ago	Long break
Spring	102d ago	Long break
Launceston	—	—