Racing TV/EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands C And D) (EBF Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Kempton (AW)

19:00

Date 2024-09-06

Distance 1m

Class Class 4

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £5,346

Runners (13)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
10 (13)	Green Storm Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:Charlie Johnston	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Charlie Johnston	128	—	32	-	91	-	91d	—	—	-14	16.5	0.50/1	2/1 33%
Placed in two races at Haydock and the form is very solid; bred to be as effective on AW
1 (4)	Amiloc Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Ralph Beckett	J:Rossa Ryan T:Ralph Beckett	135	—	1	-	80	47	25d	—	—	-11	19.4	0.47/1	15/8 35%
Justified favouritism in maiden here last month and looks sure to progress; respected
3 (11)	Bear Island Grey J:Harry Davies T:David Menuisier	J:Harry Davies T:David Menuisier	130	—	4	-	74	56	25d	—	—	-9	3.6	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Showed promise over 7f here last month, shaping as if he'll relish this extra furlong
7 (10)	Must Believe Bay J:Paddy Bradley T:Ismail Mohammed	J:Paddy Bradley T:Ismail Mohammed	130	—	02	-	85	68	17d	—	—	-2	7.9	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Went close over C&D last time, belying his 66-1 odds; likely player on that bare form
5 (1)	Hi Ya Mal Chestnut J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-6	2.5	3.00/1	12/1 8%
35,000gns yearling; New Bay half-brother to two winners; looks the pick of the newcomers
4 (5)	Flying Fortress Bay J:Silvestre De Sousa T:James Owen	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:James Owen	130	—	04	-	77	-	21d	—	—	-6	2.4	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Has frame possibilities, provided the form of latest Newmarket effort is backed up
6 (9)	Le Pelerin Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:William Knight	J:Marco Ghiani T:William Knight	130	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-2	0.7	8.25/1	33/1 3%
32,000gns yearling; by Sottsass; stable is only 1-25 with 2yos this season
12 (3)	Champagnebreakfast Bay J:Georgia Dobie T:Edward Smyth-Osbourne	J:Georgia Dobie T:Edward Smyth-Osbourne	123	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.3	20.00/1	80/1 1%
6,000gns yearling; sister to a 7.4f 2yo winner; trainer is 0-6 with 2yos
8 (2)	Pine Cliffs Bay J:George Rooke T:Jonathan Portman	J:George Rooke T:Jonathan Portman	130	—	03	-	69	59	17d	—	—	+2	3.2	25.00/1	100/1 1%
Only a modest third over C&D last month; needs further improvement
2 (12)	Aneedah Hero Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	J:Cieren Fallon T:William Muir & Chris Grassick	130	t	04	-	56	-	23d	—	—	-1	0.2	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Has failed to beat a rival in two turf events
13 (8)	Scheming Bay J:Sam Hitchcott T:Richard Hannon	J:Sam Hitchcott T:Richard Hannon	123	—	9	-	45	-	41d	—	—	-1	0.2	37.50/1	150/1 1%
Always in last place in nine-runner maiden at Lingfield
9 (7)	Celtic Diligence Bay J:Darragh Keenan T:Pat Phelan	J:Darragh Keenan T:Pat Phelan	128	—	6	-	36	22	17d	—	—	0	0.2	62.50/1	250/1 0%
Shaped better than bare result in C&D contest last month
11 (6)	Poke The Bear Bay J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Amy Murphy	J:Frederick Larson(3) T:Amy Murphy	128	—	95	-	48	36	17d	—	—	0	0.1	100.00/1	400/1 0%
Comfortably held in both runs, latest over C&D

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Ladbrokes	Unibet	Boyle Sports
Green Storm	7/4	7/4	7/4	2/1	7/4
Amiloc	15/8	15/8	7/4	13/8	15/8
Bear Island	13/2	13/2	7/1	11/2	13/2
Must Believe	15/2	8/1	8/1	15/2	8/1
Hi Ya Mal	10/1	17/2	17/2	12/1	9/1
Flying Fortress	12/1	12/1	14/1	11/1	12/1
Le Pelerin	33/1	33/1	33/1	28/1	33/1
Champagnebreakfast	80/1	66/1	66/1	80/1	80/1
Pine Cliffs	100/1	100/1	100/1	100/1	100/1
Aneedah Hero	150/1	125/1	100/1	100/1	125/1
Scheming	150/1	125/1	80/1	100/1	125/1
Celtic Diligence	250/1	200/1	125/1	150/1	150/1
Poke The Bear	400/1	250/1	150/1	200/1	200/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Amiloc

19.4

OR: 0 Form: 10 Odds: 9.4

15/8

2nd

Green Storm

16.5

OR: 0 Form: 7.1 Odds: 9.4

2/1

3rd

Must Believe

7.9

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 2.9

8/1

Bear Island

3.6

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

7/1

Pine Cliffs

3.2

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 0.2

100/1

Hi Ya Mal

2.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

12/1

Flying Fortress

2.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

14/1

Le Pelerin

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

33/1

Champagnebreakfast

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

80/1

Aneedah Hero

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Scheming

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

150/1

Celtic Diligence

0.2

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.2

250/1

Poke The Bear

0.1

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.1

400/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Green Storm	—	91	—
Amiloc	—	80	47
Bear Island	—	74	56
Must Believe	—	85	68
Hi Ya Mal	—	—	—
Flying Fortress	—	77	—
Le Pelerin	—	—	—
Champagnebreakfast	—	—	—
Pine Cliffs	—	69	59
Aneedah Hero	—	56	—
Scheming	—	45	—
Celtic Diligence	—	36	22
Poke The Bear	—	48	36

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Must Believe	17d ago	Fit
Pine Cliffs	17d ago	Fit
Celtic Diligence	17d ago	Fit
Poke The Bear	17d ago	Fit
Flying Fortress	21d ago	Fit
Aneedah Hero	23d ago	Fit
Amiloc	25d ago	Fit
Bear Island	25d ago	Fit
Scheming	41d ago	Fit
Green Storm	91d ago	Long break
Hi Ya Mal	—	—
Le Pelerin	—	—
Champagnebreakfast	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Kempton (AW) over 1m. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.