Happy 70th Birthday Paul Fox Handicap – Kempton (AW)

Kempton (AW)

20:00

Happy 70th Birthday Paul Fox Handicap

Date 2024-09-25

Distance 6f

Class Class 6

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,140

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (6)	Crafty Spirit Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Clive Cox	J:Rossa Ryan T:Clive Cox	133	v	166243	62	74	65	36d	—	—	-8	15.8	0.69/1	11/4 27%
C&D win in May; consistent but not progressive since; gelded since latest; each-way shout
1 (3)	The Real McKay Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:Ivan Furtado	J:Marco Ghiani T:Ivan Furtado	138	t	-21010	67	73	55	15d	—	—	+2	20.7	0.88/1	7/2 22%
2-4 in AW handicaps; latest run easy to strike a line through; still has potential
6 (2)	Port Hedland Bay J:Trevor Whelan T:Henry Candy	J:Trevor Whelan T:Henry Candy	134	t	45-530	63	74	-	12d	—	—	-9	8.5	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Beaten favourite the last twice and little response for pressure latest; risky for now
5 (5)	Bint Havana Gold Bay J:Ethan Jones(5) T:Richard Hughes	J:Ethan Jones(5) T:Richard Hughes	135	—	532373	64	78	70	64d	—	—	+2	13.4	1.63/1	13/2 13%
C&D winner; scored off this mark at Wolverhampton in March; should give her running
10 (1)	Moe's Legacy Grey J:Cieren Fallon T:Ronald Harris	J:Cieren Fallon T:Ronald Harris	130	v	463522	59	70	-	12d	—	—	+5	14.2	2.25/1	9/1 10%
C&D winner; comes here on the back of two good turf runs; more required to take this
9 (9)	Art Fantastique Bay J:Sean Levey T:Tom Ward	J:Sean Levey T:Tom Ward	132	t	7113-7	61	67	-	12d	—	—	-3	4.9	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Unexposed and should be sharper for his recent return; could have shown more there though
8 (4)	Nelson Rose Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:Adam West	J:Daniel Muscutt T:Adam West	132	h	424141	61	75	62	23d	—	—	+15	20.1	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Two front-running 6f wins at Brighton; 0-6 on AW but has shown promise on Polytrack
4 (8)	Ten Club b/br J:Saffie Osborne T:Jamie Osborne	J:Saffie Osborne T:Jamie Osborne	135	h	-51544	64	74	70	85d	—	—	+3	7.7	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Won a weak AW handicap in April; fair 4th over C&D in May; others look better handicapped
3 (7)	First Company Bay J:Finley Marsh T:Mark Loughnane	J:Finley Marsh T:Mark Loughnane	135	—	252558	62	77	63	12d	—	—	+1	5.7	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Two C&D wins last winter; heavy ground no good to him 12 days ago; better expected now
2 (10)	King's Gem Bay J:William Carson T:Thomas Faulkner	J:William Carson T:Thomas Faulkner	138	t	38440-	65	64	-	284d	—	—	+3	4.7	16.50/1	66/1 1%
12-race maiden but has ability and needs a market check back from nine months off

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Crafty Spirit	5/2	11/4	5/2	5/2	9/4
The Real McKay	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Port Hedland	9/2	9/2	9/2	4/1	9/2
Bint Havana Gold	13/2	6/1	13/2	13/2	13/2
Moe's Legacy	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	17/2
Art Fantastique	12/1	12/1	12/1	11/1	12/1
Nelson Rose	18/1	16/1	18/1	18/1	14/1
Ten Club	20/1	20/1	20/1	20/1	20/1
First Company	20/1	20/1	20/1	20/1	18/1
King's Gem	66/1	66/1	66/1	50/1	66/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

The Real McKay

20.7

OR: 4.3 Form: 11 Odds: 5.4

7/2

2nd

Nelson Rose

20.1

OR: 2.8 Form: 16 Odds: 1.4

18/1

3rd

Crafty Spirit

15.8

OR: 3 Form: 5.5 Odds: 7.3

11/4

Moe's Legacy

14.2

OR: 2.3 Form: 9.4 Odds: 2.5

9/1

Bint Havana Gold

13.4

OR: 3.5 Form: 6.6 Odds: 3.3

13/2

Port Hedland

8.5

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 5.2

9/2

Ten Club

7.7

OR: 3.5 Form: 3 Odds: 1.2

20/1

First Company

5.7

OR: 3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Art Fantastique

4.9

OR: 2.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

12/1

King's Gem

4.7

OR: 3.8 Form: 0.6 Odds: 0.4

66/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
The Real McKay	67	73	55
King's Gem	65	64	—
Bint Havana Gold	64	78	70
Ten Club	64	74	70
Port Hedland	63	74	—
Crafty Spirit	62	74	65
First Company	62	77	63
Art Fantastique	61	67	—
Nelson Rose	61	75	62
Moe's Legacy	59	70	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Port Hedland	12d ago	Quick return
Moe's Legacy	12d ago	Quick return
Art Fantastique	12d ago	Quick return
First Company	12d ago	Quick return
The Real McKay	15d ago	Fit
Nelson Rose	23d ago	Fit
Crafty Spirit	36d ago	Fit
Bint Havana Gold	64d ago	Fresh
Ten Club	85d ago	Fresh
King's Gem	284d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Kempton (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.