British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap

Newmarket

15:15

Date 2024-10-05

Distance 1m4f

Class Class 2

Going Good To Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £25,770

Runners (11)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (6)	Cabrera Grey J:Colin Keane T:Edward Bethell	J:Colin Keane T:Edward Bethell	127	p	223122	90	103	91	22d	—	—	+12	31.1	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Improved again when short-headed at Doncaster (1m4f, good to soft); first-time cheekpieces
5 (5)	Incensed Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	123	—	321451	86	101	84	29d	—	—	+9	28.7	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Front-runner on three of her last four starts, winning two; unraced on softer than good
1 (8)	Quietness Bay J:William Buick T:Marcus Tregoning	J:William Buick T:Marcus Tregoning	138	—	111211	95	102	94	35d	—	—	+26	39.8	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Five wins and a second for M Tregoning, all 1m2f-1m4f handicaps on good or good to firm
7 (2)	Chorus Bay J:Harry Davies T:William Haggas	J:Harry Davies T:William Haggas	120	—	-33183	83	106	81	14d	—	—	+10	20.6	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Close 3rd over C&D latest, staying on as if first crack at 1m4f is very much in order
11 (10)	D Day Arvalenreeva Chestnut J:Hollie Doyle T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	J:Hollie Doyle T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	115	—	63-222	72	103	70	30d	—	—	-1	8.2	2.00/1	8/1 11%
One win from 13 starts; knocking on the door but this race might be a little too warm
10 (7)	Typical Woman Chestnut J:Ryan Kavanagh(7) T:Ian Williams	J:Ryan Kavanagh(7) T:Ian Williams	117	—	-05511	74	106	95	43d	—	—	+18	25.1	2.50/1	10/1 9%
9lb higher than when winning her last two starts but the first of those was by 17l
2 (4)	Ayyab Bay J:Robert Havlin T:S Woods	J:Robert Havlin T:S Woods	130	—	316044	87	103	91	22d	—	—	+7	12.9	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Won at Goodwood (1m4f) in May and has run creditably on three of her four starts since
8 (1)	Big Bear Hug Bay J:Jimmy Quinn T:Adam West	J:Jimmy Quinn T:Adam West	119	—	361352	76	103	87	23d	—	—	+12	17.4	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Close second over 1m4f (soft) on latest; more exposed than some of these but never better
3 (11)	Flash Bardot Bay J:Edward Greatrex T:Jack Channon	J:Edward Greatrex T:Jack Channon	128	—	188599	85	101	99	14d	—	—	+6	9.8	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Last two runs have to be a worry, as she was back on heavy going which should have suited
6 (9)	Tafsir Bay J:Amie Waugh(3) T:Jim Goldie	J:Amie Waugh(3) T:Jim Goldie	121	p	315151	78	104	91	12d	—	—	+22	24.9	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Four 1m5f wins this term and another in tidy style when produced late over 1m4f on latest
9 (3)	Local Arms Bay J:William Pyle(3) T:K R Burke	J:William Pyle(3) T:K R Burke	117	—	414-70	80	101	53	91d	—	—	+6	8.2	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Bolted up last September (7.4f, soft) but no sign of that form in her three races since

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Cabrera	3/1	10/3	16/5	10/3	3/1
Incensed	10/3	3/1	3/1	10/3	3/1
Quietness	11/2	5/1	5/1	9/2	11/2
Chorus	15/2	15/2	15/2	7/1	8/1
D Day Arvalenreeva	8/1	15/2	15/2	7/1	8/1
Typical Woman	9/1	10/1	10/1	10/1	9/1
Ayyab	18/1	16/1	16/1	16/1	14/1
Big Bear Hug	20/1	18/1	18/1	16/1	18/1
Flash Bardot	22/1	22/1	22/1	25/1	18/1
Tafsir	28/1	28/1	28/1	25/1	33/1
Local Arms	28/1	40/1	40/1	33/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Quietness

39.8

OR: 11.3 Form: 24.5 Odds: 4

11/2

2nd

Cabrera

31.1

OR: 10 Form: 15.4 Odds: 5.7

10/3

3rd

Incensed

28.7

OR: 9 Form: 14 Odds: 5.7

10/3

Typical Woman

25.1

OR: 6 Form: 17 Odds: 2.1

10/1

Tafsir

24.9

OR: 7 Form: 17 Odds: 0.9

33/1

Chorus

20.6

OR: 8.3 Form: 9.5 Odds: 2.9

8/1

Big Bear Hug

17.4

OR: 6.5 Form: 9.5 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Ayyab

12.9

OR: 9.3 Form: 2 Odds: 1.6

18/1

Flash Bardot

9.8

OR: 8.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

25/1

D Day Arvalenreeva

8.2

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.7

8/1

Local Arms

8.2

OR: 7.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

40/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Quietness	95	102	94
Cabrera	90	103	91
Ayyab	87	103	91
Incensed	86	101	84
Flash Bardot	85	101	99
Chorus	83	106	81
Local Arms	80	101	53
Tafsir	78	104	91
Big Bear Hug	76	103	87
Typical Woman	74	106	95
D Day Arvalenreeva	72	103	70

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Tafsir	12d ago	Quick return
Chorus	14d ago	Fit
Flash Bardot	14d ago	Fit
Cabrera	22d ago	Fit
Ayyab	22d ago	Fit
Big Bear Hug	23d ago	Fit
Incensed	29d ago	Fit
D Day Arvalenreeva	30d ago	Fit
Quietness	35d ago	Fit
Typical Woman	43d ago	Fit
Local Arms	91d ago	Long break