Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Nursery Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

17:15

Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Nursery Handicap

Date 2024-10-28

Distance 6f

Class Class 5

Going Standard To Slow

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,716

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
2 (7)	Maissara Bay J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Roger Varian	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Roger Varian	133	h	443	73	83	53	17d	—	—	-11	17.6	0.50/1	2/1 33%
Frankel filly who has shown consistent form and is open to progress now handicapping
8 (3)	Fallen Soldier Bay J:Oisin Orr T:John & Sean Quinn	J:Oisin Orr T:John & Sean Quinn	127	p	85842	67	80	61	42d	—	—	-1	13.3	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Improved form since handicapping and upped to 6f; now wears headgear; possibilities
3 (2)	Chuti Manika Bay J:Oliver Stammers T:Charlie Johnston	J:Oliver Stammers T:Charlie Johnston	133	—	2175	73	77	-	24d	—	—	+2	16.3	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Ready for this drop in distance, having been outstayed here on latest 7f start
1 (9)	Ziggy's Ariel Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	137	—	4175	77	78	-	54d	—	—	+4	14.8	1.88/1	15/2 12%
AW debutante who may prove suited by this test, having gained turf win over a stiff 6f
5 (1)	Arabian Cobra Grey J:Paul Mulrennan T:Hugo Palmer	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Hugo Palmer	132	v	250685	72	80	-	15d	—	—	-4	9.1	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Chance depends on how well he responds to change of surface and first-time headgear
7 (6)	Impartiality Bay J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	J:Rowan Scott T:Phillip Makin	129	—	3647	69	79	38	30d	—	—	0	7.6	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Best 7f form when making the frame at Ayr and Newcastle; first win is possible
4 (5)	Cracking Man Bay J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	133	—	92700	73	82	-	67d	—	—	-3	11.4	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Had a lot on his plate at major festivals the last twice; this is more realistic
9 (8)	Auntie Jo Grey J:Mark Winn T:David O'Meara	J:Mark Winn T:David O'Meara	127	—	5447	67	72	-	40d	—	—	0	5.7	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Has something to find on turf figures; needs improvement on AW/handicap debut
NR (4)	Hundred Caps Chestnut J:NON-RUNNER T:Julie Camacho	J:NON-RUNNER T:Julie Camacho	131	—	035	71	-	-	51d	—	0W/1P 1 run	—	7.4	—	—

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Maissara	2/1	2/1	15/8	15/8	15/8
Fallen Soldier	13/2	13/2	6/1	6/1	6/1
Chuti Manika	11/2	11/2	5/1	5/1	5/1
Ziggy's Ariel	13/2	15/2	7/1	7/1	7/1
Arabian Cobra	13/2	6/1	11/2	11/2	11/2
Impartiality	12/1	12/1	11/1	11/1	11/1
Cracking Man	11/2	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1
Auntie Jo	20/1	22/1	20/1	20/1	20/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Maissara

17.6

OR: 5.8 Form: 3 Odds: 8.9

2/1

2nd

Chuti Manika

16.3

OR: 5.8 Form: 6.5 Odds: 4

11/2

3rd

Ziggy's Ariel

14.8

OR: 6.8 Form: 5 Odds: 3.1

15/2

Fallen Soldier

13.3

OR: 4.3 Form: 5 Odds: 4

13/2

Cracking Man

11.4

OR: 5.8 Form: 1.5 Odds: 4.2

11/2

Arabian Cobra

9.1

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Impartiality

7.6

OR: 4.8 Form: 0.9 Odds: 2

12/1

Hundred Caps

7.4

OR: 5.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 0

—

Auntie Jo

5.7

OR: 4.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.5

22/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Ziggy's Ariel	77	78	—
Maissara	73	83	53
Chuti Manika	73	77	—
Cracking Man	73	82	—
Arabian Cobra	72	80	—
Hundred Caps	71	—	—
Impartiality	69	79	38
Fallen Soldier	67	80	61
Auntie Jo	67	72	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Arabian Cobra	15d ago	Fit
Maissara	17d ago	Fit
Chuti Manika	24d ago	Fit
Impartiality	30d ago	Fit
Auntie Jo	40d ago	Fit
Fallen Soldier	42d ago	Fit
Hundred Caps	51d ago	Fresh
Ziggy's Ariel	54d ago	Fresh
Cracking Man	67d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.