Paul Ferguson Jumpers To Follow Handicap Chase – Bangor-on-Dee

Bangor-on-Dee

12:25

Paul Ferguson Jumpers To Follow Handicap Chase

Date 2024-11-13

Distance 2m4f72y

Class Class 3

Going Soft

Type Chase

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £7,922

Runners (16)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6	Jagwar Bay J:Jonjo O'Neill Jr T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	J:Jonjo O'Neill Jr T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	161	t	5145-1	123	139	101	28d	—	—	+7	37.6	0.50/1	2/1 33%
Jumping improved as the race went on when justifying market confidence at Wetherby
1	Lowry's Bar Bay J:Ben Jones T:Philip Hobbs & Johnson White	J:Ben Jones T:Philip Hobbs & Johnson White	168	—	1112-4	130	-	-	32d	—	—	+2	28	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Went 4-6 over hurdles; nice reappearance in a valuable handicap and now goes chasing
7	Tanganyika Bay J:Shane Quinlan(3) T:Venetia Williams	J:Shane Quinlan(3) T:Venetia Williams	161	—	5F130-	123	-	-	228d	—	—	+18	27.8	2.13/1	17/2 11%
Four hurdle wins; something to prove off this high a mark but should make a chaser
16	Heroique De Maulde Chestnut J:Henry Brooke T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	J:Henry Brooke T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	149	t	/2312/	111	136	-	627d	—	—	+25	32.4	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Handicapped to have a say here if sufficiently straight after his time out
3	Lord Of Cheshire Bay J:Sam Twiston-Davies T:Nigel Twiston-Davies	J:Sam Twiston-Davies T:Nigel Twiston-Davies	164	—	12F7-1	126	136	122	40d	—	—	+24	31.1	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Only 2lb higher than for narrow chase debut win at Fontwell; jumped soundly enough
2	Abbeydale Bay J:Jonathan Burke T:Fergal O'Brien	J:Jonathan Burke T:Fergal O'Brien	165	t	6/469-	127	-	-	208d	—	—	+16	20.6	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Maiden hurdle winner in Ireland; breeding points to likely improvement over fences
5	Mount Tempest Bay J:Harry Skelton T:Dan Skelton	J:Harry Skelton T:Dan Skelton	163	—	13P42-	125	138	122	219d	—	—	+23	27	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Exposed at about 2m but could have some improvement lurking now sent up in distance
10	Garincha Bay J:James Bowen T:Neil Mulholland	J:James Bowen T:Neil Mulholland	159	p	4F141/	121	134	-	568d	—	—	+29	33.7	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Won this two years ago; long absence to overcome but he's feasibly handicapped
12	Champagnesuperover Bay J:Beau Morgan(5) T:Olly Murphy	J:Beau Morgan(5) T:Olly Murphy	156	t	4/4-F4	118	132	82	14d	—	—	+14	18	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Well handicapped and last run over too short was positive; lightly raced recent times
4	Santonito Bay J:Mr Jack Andrews(3) T:T Ellis	J:Mr Jack Andrews(3) T:T Ellis	163	—	035-33	125	128	82	155d	—	—	+16	19.7	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Dual Irish winner; respectable in both chases for this yard and should be winning soon
15	Scene One Bay J:Tom Cannon T:Lucy Wadham	J:Tom Cannon T:Lucy Wadham	150	p	P1644-	112	132	120	215d	—	—	+16	19.1	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Won two handicap chases last season, including first time back; stable does well here
14	Post Chaise Grey J:Robert Dunne T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	J:Robert Dunne T:Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero	152	—	312-14	114	131	102	37d	—	—	+14	16.8	10.00/1	40/1 2%
This trip looks on the sharp side and he's seemingly not the stable's main hope
9	Ostend Bay J:David Noonan T:Alastair Ralph	J:David Noonan T:Alastair Ralph	160	—	21/57-	122	-	-	270d	—	—	+16	18.6	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Winning hurdler; has a big field to deal with on this switch to fences
11	Carrigeen Castle Bay J:Brian Hughes T:Micky Hammond	J:Brian Hughes T:Micky Hammond	156	—	121P5-	118	132	111	203d	—	0W/1P 1 run	+23	24.8	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Did well last season when sent chasing but this mark could be challenging
13	Le Cameleon b/br J:Ciaran Gethings T:Kim Bailey	J:Ciaran Gethings T:Kim Bailey	154	t	4P6-39	116	131	89	147d	—	—	+15	17	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Below par in his three runs for Kim Bailey but has time on his side to turn things around
NR	Cerendipity Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith	J:NON-RUNNER T:Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith	160	—	F351-6	122	136	-	28d	—	0W/0P 1 run	—	18	—	—
Non-runner

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Jagwar	7/4	2/1	2/1	13/8	7/4
Lowry's Bar	5/2	9/4	5/2	2/1	5/2
Tanganyika	17/2	13/2	15/2	15/2	15/2
Heroique De Maulde	12/1	11/1	14/1	16/1	16/1
Lord Of Cheshire	14/1	12/1	14/1	14/1	12/1
Abbeydale	22/1	20/1	22/1	22/1	22/1
Mount Tempest	20/1	20/1	20/1	20/1	20/1
Garincha	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	28/1
Champagnesuperover	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	22/1
Santonito	28/1	25/1	28/1	28/1	28/1
Scene One	25/1	25/1	25/1	22/1	22/1
Post Chaise	40/1	33/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Ostend	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1	40/1
Carrigeen Castle	80/1	50/1	66/1	50/1	50/1
Le Cameleon	66/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	66/1
Cerendipity	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Jagwar

37.6

OR: 18.3 Form: 10 Odds: 9.4

2/1

2nd

Garincha

33.7

OR: 17.8 Form: 14.6 Odds: 1.4

28/1

3rd

Heroique De Maulde

32.4

OR: 15.3 Form: 15 Odds: 2.1

16/1

Lord Of Cheshire

31.1

OR: 19 Form: 10 Odds: 2.1

14/1

Lowry's Bar

OR: 20 Form: 0 Odds: 8

5/2

Tanganyika

27.8

OR: 18.3 Form: 6.7 Odds: 2.9

17/2

Mount Tempest

OR: 18.8 Form: 7.2 Odds: 1.1

20/1

Carrigeen Castle

24.8

OR: 17 Form: 7.5 Odds: 0.4

80/1

Abbeydale

20.6

OR: 19.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

22/1

Santonito

19.7

OR: 18.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1

28/1

Scene One

19.1

OR: 15.5 Form: 2.7 Odds: 0.9

25/1

Ostend

18.6

OR: 18 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Champagnesuperover

OR: 17 Form: 0 Odds: 1

25/1

Cerendipity

OR: 18 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Le Cameleon

OR: 16.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

66/1

Post Chaise

16.8

OR: 16 Form: 0 Odds: 0.8

40/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Lowry's Bar	130	—	—
Abbeydale	127	—	—
Lord Of Cheshire	126	136	122
Mount Tempest	125	138	122
Santonito	125	128	82
Jagwar	123	139	101
Tanganyika	123	—	—
Ostend	122	—	—
Cerendipity	122	136	—
Garincha	121	134	—
Champagnesuperover	118	132	82
Carrigeen Castle	118	132	111
Le Cameleon	116	131	89
Post Chaise	114	131	102
Scene One	112	132	120
Heroique De Maulde	111	136	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Champagnesuperover	14d ago	Fit
Jagwar	28d ago	Fit
Cerendipity	28d ago	Fit
Lowry's Bar	32d ago	Fit
Post Chaise	37d ago	Fit
Lord Of Cheshire	40d ago	Fit
Le Cameleon	147d ago	Long break
Santonito	155d ago	Long break
Carrigeen Castle	203d ago	Long break
Abbeydale	208d ago	Long break
Scene One	215d ago	Long break
Mount Tempest	219d ago	Long break
Tanganyika	228d ago	Long break
Ostend	270d ago	Long break
Garincha	568d ago	Long break
Heroique De Maulde	627d ago	Long break