Always Gamble Responsibly With BetMGM Nursery Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

16:40

Always Gamble Responsibly With BetMGM Nursery Handicap

Date 2024-11-23

Distance 5f

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £4,972

Runners (7)

EW Terms: 2 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (3)	So Darn Hot Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	J:Jack Mitchell T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	135	—	7321	81	90	72	14d	—	—	-14	42.8	0.15/1	8/13 62%
Progressive gelding; off the mark in Doncaster maiden two weeks ago; leading contender
2 (2)	Yes I'm Mali b/br J:Joe Fanning T:Richard Fahey	J:Joe Fanning T:Richard Fahey	135	—	851400	81	89	-	49d	—	—	+2	14.4	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Has failed by a long chalk to repeat the form of his York nursery win; something to prove
7 (1)	Laurens Dream Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Billy Garritty T:Michael & David Easterby	123	—	843211	69	88	81	7d	—	—	+14	29.6	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Thriving now, winning over 7f and 6f; further drop in trip should be fine; major player
5 (7)	Winchurch Bay J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	130	—	502155	76	88	54	77d	—	—	+7	15.4	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Two 5f wins; respectable fifth last two starts; may need personal best after break
3 (5)	I Got Soul Grey J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	132	—	65170	78	83	-	99d	—	—	+7	13.7	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Hamilton maiden winner; well held at Listed level twice since; needs to get back on track
4 (4)	Cressida Wildes Bay J:Luke Morris T:Phil McEntee	J:Luke Morris T:Phil McEntee	132	p	435233	78	89	43	11d	—	—	+12	16.6	5.50/1	22/1 4%
0-6 but has made the frame five times; may be suited by this drop back in distance
NR (6)	Commander Atkinson Bay J:TBC T:Geoff Oldroyd	J: T:Geoff Oldroyd	127	—	58023	73	89	81	26d	—	—	—	12.3	—	—
Much improved since two-month break, placed in nurseries; seems sure to go well again

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
So Darn Hot	8/15	8/13	8/13	8/13	4/7
Yes I'm Mali	6/1	11/2	6/1	11/2	6/1
Laurens Dream	7/1	5/1	6/1	6/1	13/2
Winchurch	12/1	9/1	10/1	8/1	9/1
I Got Soul	18/1	14/1	14/1	12/1	14/1
Cressida Wildes	22/1	22/1	16/1	18/1	14/1
Commander Atkinson	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

So Darn Hot

42.8

OR: 7.8 Form: 15 Odds: 20

8/13

2nd

Laurens Dream

29.6

OR: 4.8 Form: 20.4 Odds: 4.4

7/1

3rd

Cressida Wildes

16.6

OR: 7 Form: 8.2 Odds: 1.4

22/1

Winchurch

15.4

OR: 6.5 Form: 6.5 Odds: 2.4

12/1

Yes I'm Mali

14.4

OR: 7.8 Form: 3 Odds: 3.6

6/1

I Got Soul

13.7

OR: 7 Form: 5 Odds: 1.7

18/1

Commander Atkinson

12.3

OR: 5.8 Form: 6.5 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
So Darn Hot	81	90	72
Yes I'm Mali	81	89	—
I Got Soul	78	83	—
Cressida Wildes	78	89	43
Winchurch	76	88	54
Commander Atkinson	73	89	81
Laurens Dream	69	88	81

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Laurens Dream	7d ago	Quick return
Cressida Wildes	11d ago	Quick return
So Darn Hot	14d ago	Fit
Commander Atkinson	26d ago	Fit
Yes I'm Mali	49d ago	Fresh
Winchurch	77d ago	Fresh
I Got Soul	99d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 5f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.