Belhaven Black Classic Handicap Hurdle (Go North Brindisi Breeze Series Qualifier)

Kelso

13:30

Date 2024-12-08

Distance 2m6f151y

Class Class 4

Going Soft

Type Hurdle

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £7,922

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7	Forged Well Bay J:Sean Quinlan T:Martin Todhunter	J:Sean Quinlan T:Martin Todhunter	163	—	P26-31	111	114	92	29d	—	—	-2	22.5	0.63/1	5/2 29%
Got up in final strides over 2m5f here latest; today's extra yardage may well suit
2	Young Jack Bay J:Danny McMenamin T:Chris Grant	J:Danny McMenamin T:Chris Grant	168	—	2139-5	116	117	102	35d	—	—	+1	23.2	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Won 2m4f heavy-ground maiden hurdle at Newcastle in February; has staying potential
6	Lunar Chief Bay J:Jamie Hamilton T:Ruth Jefferson	J:Jamie Hamilton T:Ruth Jefferson	165	—	1/45-1	113	116	78	29d	—	—	+16	36.9	1.00/1	4/1 20%
C&D novice hurdle winner who makes handicap debut and is in very good hands to progress
9	Follow Charlie Bay J:Ben Smith(7) T:R Mike Smith	J:Ben Smith(7) T:R Mike Smith	155	—	146-73	103	121	70	25d	—	—	+6	16.1	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Two wins at Ayr earlier this year; has to prove himself away from there but not ruled out
3	Kingston Bridge Grey J:Craig Nichol T:Ewan Whillans	J:Craig Nichol T:Ewan Whillans	166	—	1-8196	114	115	82	141d	—	—	+19	24.6	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Progressive earlier in year before two below-par runs; needs to return with career best
10	Siberian Star Bay J:Sean Bowen T:Peter & Michael Bowen	J:Sean Bowen T:Peter & Michael Bowen	152	tp	22-1U7	100	-	-	—	—	—	+8	14.2	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Won a point-to-point in May but has a modest strike-rate under rules; stable debut
1	City Derby Chestnut J:Peter Kavanagh(3) T:Lizzie Quinlan	J:Peter Kavanagh(3) T:Lizzie Quinlan	168	p	111324	116	115	104	22d	—	—	+23	27.7	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Below par at Wetherby last time but enjoying a good season otherwise and could bounce back
12	Gypsey's Secret Bay J:Patrick Wadge T:Sandy Forster	J:Patrick Wadge T:Sandy Forster	145	—	63214-	93	114	100	237d	—	—	+17	22.9	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Won at Carlisle in March but off since soundly beaten fourth over C&D in April
4	Gaillimh A Stor Bay J:Bruce Lynn T:N W Alexander	J:Bruce Lynn T:N W Alexander	166	t	2F3F3/	114	116	-	627d	—	—	+17	21.2	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Lightly raced 8yo who is on a handy mark on best form but has a very hefty absence to defy
11	Joie More Bay J:Conor O'Farrell T:Jackie Stephen	J:Conor O'Farrell T:Jackie Stephen	152	—	662-58	100	115	70	27d	—	0W/0P 1 run	+11	13.2	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Runner-up in maiden hurdle here in March but unable to threaten in first two handicaps
NR	Captain Potter Bay J:TBC T:Brian Ellison	J: T:Brian Ellison	165	p	417-S	114	101	98	16d	—	—	—	16	—	—
4yo; Flat winner in October; remains unexposed over hurdles and could go well
NR	Kilbrainy Brown J:TBC T:Sandy Thomson	J: T:Sandy Thomson	159	t	-80014	107	114	69	25d	—	—	—	21.3	—	—
Course winner who scored at Carlisle two starts ago and might not be far away

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Forged Well	5/2	5/2	5/2	5/2	9/4
Young Jack	3/1	3/1	3/1	11/4	11/4
Lunar Chief	10/3	10/3	10/3	10/3	4/1
Follow Charlie	8/1	8/1	8/1	9/1	15/2
Kingston Bridge	16/1	16/1	16/1	14/1	14/1
Siberian Star	14/1	12/1	14/1	14/1	11/1
City Derby	20/1	18/1	18/1	18/1	16/1
Gypsey's Secret	22/1	20/1	20/1	20/1	11/1
Gaillimh A Stor	22/1	22/1	22/1	22/1	16/1
Joie More	33/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	28/1
Captain Potter	-	-	-	-	-
Kilbrainy	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Lunar Chief

36.9

OR: 15.8 Form: 15 Odds: 6.2

4/1

2nd

City Derby

27.7

OR: 16.5 Form: 10 Odds: 1.2

20/1

3rd

Kingston Bridge

24.6

OR: 16 Form: 7 Odds: 1.6

16/1

Young Jack

23.2

OR: 16.5 Form: 0 Odds: 6.7

3/1

Gypsey's Secret

22.9

OR: 10.8 Form: 10.4 Odds: 1.7

22/1

Forged Well

22.5

OR: 15.3 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

5/2

Kilbrainy

21.3

OR: 14.3 Form: 7 Odds: 0

—

Gaillimh A Stor

21.2

OR: 16 Form: 4 Odds: 1.2

22/1

Follow Charlie

16.1

OR: 13.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.9

9/1

Captain Potter

OR: 16 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Siberian Star

14.2

OR: 12.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Joie More

13.2

OR: 12.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

33/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Young Jack	116	117	102
City Derby	116	115	104
Kingston Bridge	114	115	82
Gaillimh A Stor	114	116	—
Captain Potter	114	101	98
Lunar Chief	113	116	78
Forged Well	111	114	92
Kilbrainy	107	114	69
Follow Charlie	103	121	70
Siberian Star	100	—	—
Joie More	100	115	70
Gypsey's Secret	93	114	100

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Captain Potter	16d ago	Fit
City Derby	22d ago	Fit
Follow Charlie	25d ago	Fit
Kilbrainy	25d ago	Fit
Joie More	27d ago	Fit
Forged Well	29d ago	Fit
Lunar Chief	29d ago	Fit
Young Jack	35d ago	Fit
Kingston Bridge	141d ago	Long break
Gypsey's Secret	237d ago	Long break
Gaillimh A Stor	627d ago	Long break
Siberian Star	—	—