Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

19:45

Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap

Date 2024-12-13

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £4,711

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
12 (7)	Just Typical Bay J:Charles Bishop T:Ian Williams	J:Charles Bishop T:Ian Williams	130	—	422192	50	70	59	7d	—	—	-12	23.9	0.38/1	6/4 40%
Running well on Tapeta lately as when second at Newcastle a week ago; major player
6 (3)	United Force Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:Clare Hobson	J:Marco Ghiani T:Clare Hobson	131	—	690166	50	66	59	29d	—	—	-4	8.6	1.38/1	11/2 15%
Two wins this year; ran well on Tapeta at the start of his career; shortlist material
1 (8)	Alexander James Bay J:Sam Feilden(5) T:Michael Herrington	J:Sam Feilden(5) T:Michael Herrington	133	tp	606653	52	69	44	38d	—	—	-6	7.1	1.50/1	6/1 14%
This is the weakest handicap he has ever contested but he hasn't landed one in three years
3 (2)	Northern Cracksman Bay J:Alex Jary(5) T:Lawrence Mullaney	J:Alex Jary(5) T:Lawrence Mullaney	132	b	432275	52	63	43	25d	—	—	-3	8.2	2.50/1	10/1 9%
0-11; fair placed form early in year; not disgraced on stable debut; could make an impact
4 (1)	Cherry Hill Chestnut J:Sean Levey T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	J:Sean Levey T:Dominic Ffrench Davis	131	—	475524	51	63	60	37d	—	—	-3	6.3	2.25/1	9/1 10%
Best form has come on the Kempton Polytrack; failed to beat a rival in one go on Tapeta
8 (9)	Twistaline Bay J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	131	hb	597560	50	65	46	4d	—	—	-5	1.7	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Modest since winning two 0-50 classified events over C&D in January; new headgear
10 (6)	Shaka Bay J:Elle-May Croot(5) T:Ivan Furtado	J:Elle-May Croot(5) T:Ivan Furtado	130	—	242920	49	67	57	43d	—	—	0	6.9	3.50/1	14/1 7%
0-18 but twice runner-up off this mark here in the autumn; frame material on that form
7 (4)	Upper Hand Bay J:Kieran Shoemark T:Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole	J:Kieran Shoemark T:Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole	131	tb	-67983	51	59	49	43d	—	—	0	4.6	5.00/1	20/1 5%
0-12 but ran his best race of the year here last time; stamina to prove but not dismissed
9 (10)	Vanity Pays Bay J:Zak Wheatley(3) T:Declan Carroll	J:Zak Wheatley(3) T:Declan Carroll	130	—	404056	50	65	-	56d	—	—	-2	0.9	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Modest of late and now 0-19; others make greater appeal
11 (11)	So Chic Bay J:Georgia Dobie T:Stephanie Cassidy	J:Georgia Dobie T:Stephanie Cassidy	130	—	346896	49	68	47	100d	—	0W/0P 1 run	-2	0.7	16.50/1	66/1 1%
2-27; first start for new trainer after 100 days off; stamina will be tested
5 (5)	The Toff Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Lisa Williamson	J:Joanna Mason T:Lisa Williamson	131	—	078980	50	64	18	25d	—	—	-1	0.3	20.00/1	80/1 1%
1-24; hasn't beaten many in six starts this year; look elsewhere
NR (12)	Naughty Niall Bay J:Ryan Kavanagh(7) T:Ian Williams	J:Ryan Kavanagh(7) T:Ian Williams	132	—	247900	52	63	26	23d	—	—	—	0.5	—	—
0-8; poor form since contesting handicaps; stable looks to hold stronger claims elsewhere

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Just Typical	11/8	6/4	11/8	11/8	6/4
United Force	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2	11/2
Alexander James	6/1	11/2	5/1	6/1	5/1
Northern Cracksman	17/2	10/1	10/1	7/1	10/1
Cherry Hill	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1
Twistaline	14/1	14/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Shaka	14/1	14/1	14/1	12/1	14/1
Upper Hand	20/1	16/1	16/1	14/1	16/1
Vanity Pays	28/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	22/1
So Chic	66/1	40/1	50/1	50/1	50/1
The Toff	80/1	66/1	66/1	66/1	80/1
Naughty Niall	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Just Typical

23.9

OR: 0 Form: 12.5 Odds: 11.4

6/4

2nd

United Force

8.6

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 3.6

11/2

3rd

Northern Cracksman

8.2

OR: 0.5 Form: 4.6 Odds: 3.1

10/1

Alexander James

7.1

OR: 0.5 Form: 3 Odds: 3.6

6/1

Shaka

6.9

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Cherry Hill

6.3

OR: 0.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 2.5

9/1

Upper Hand

4.6

OR: 0.3 Form: 3 Odds: 1.4

20/1

Twistaline

1.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Vanity Pays

0.9

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

28/1

So Chic

0.7

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.7

66/1

Naughty Niall

0.5

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

The Toff

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

80/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Alexander James	52	69	44
Northern Cracksman	52	63	43
Naughty Niall	52	63	26
Cherry Hill	51	63	60
Upper Hand	51	59	49
Just Typical	50	70	59
United Force	50	66	59
Twistaline	50	65	46
Vanity Pays	50	65	—
The Toff	50	64	18
Shaka	49	67	57
So Chic	49	68	47

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Twistaline	4d ago	Quick return
Just Typical	7d ago	Quick return
Naughty Niall	23d ago	Fit
Northern Cracksman	25d ago	Fit
The Toff	25d ago	Fit
United Force	29d ago	Fit
Cherry Hill	37d ago	Fit
Alexander James	38d ago	Fit
Shaka	43d ago	Fit
Upper Hand	43d ago	Fit
Vanity Pays	56d ago	Fresh
So Chic	100d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Based on 6 draws with historical results at this course and distance.