Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Handicap (Div I) – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

16:45

Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Handicap (Div I)

Date 2024-12-13

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £3,716

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
8 (1)	Lord Rapscallion Grey J:Sean Levey T:Stuart Williams	J:Sean Levey T:Stuart Williams	131	v	030042	68	87	61	8d	—	—	-7	17.4	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Unlucky last time and 1lb well in but still to prove he is as effective on Tapeta
5 (5)	King Of Ithaca Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:James Tate	J:Rossa Ryan T:James Tate	134	—	641381	71	86	67	41d	—	—	+4	26.4	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Took his record over C&D to 131 when winning with some authority last month; respected
1 (4)	Eligible Bay J:Lewis Chalkley(7) T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Lewis Chalkley(7) T:Michael & David Easterby	137	—	087441	74	91	61	10d	—	—	+1	22.2	0.83/1	10/3 23%
Four-time course winner; won at Newcastle last time; remains a potent threat at this level
2 (2)	Federal Envoy Brown J:Kieran Shoemark T:Iain Jardine	J:Kieran Shoemark T:Iain Jardine	135	—	15705	72	82	36	160d	—	—	-2	11.1	1.75/1	7/1 13%
1-1 over C&D; makes his stable debut after 160 days off; watch market
3 (3)	Thorntonledale Max Bay J:Luke Morris T:David Simcock	J:Luke Morris T:David Simcock	135	—	251830	72	81	68	23d	—	—	+5	12.8	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Bit of a mixed bag; has run well on Tapeta but doesn't have anything in hand of his mark
7 (8)	Visibility Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Scott Dixon	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Scott Dixon	132	—	331484	69	82	64	28d	—	—	+3	10.3	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Has winning form over C&D, but this trip may be on the sharp side for him now
9 (9)	Autumn Rose Bay J:Jack Doughty(3) T:Tony Carroll	J:Jack Doughty(3) T:Tony Carroll	126	—	184061	63	83	64	28d	—	—	+8	15.2	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Second start on AW when winning at Wolverhampton last time; unexposed on this surface
4 (6)	South Kensington Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Martin Dunne	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Martin Dunne	134	—	325-77	71	82	-	170d	—	—	+4	5.8	16.50/1	66/1 1%
0-7; makes her stable debut after 170 days off; market informative
10 (7)	Cable Beach Bay J:Andrew Elliott T:Tom Tate	J:Andrew Elliott T:Tom Tate	116	—	5968	53	76	51	35d	—	—	-1	1.2	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Out of the frame in all four starts on Tapeta; needs to find plenty more
NR (10)	Alreet Cha Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:Craig Lidster	J:NON-RUNNER T:Craig Lidster	133	p	701762	70	85	-	10d	—	—	—	13	—	—
1lb well in after running an in-form rival to a neck at Newcastle ten days ago

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Lord Rapscallion	11/4	3/1	11/4	11/4	3/1
King Of Ithaca	11/4	11/4	11/4	11/4	11/4
Eligible	3/1	10/3	3/1	3/1	3/1
Federal Envoy	13/2	13/2	13/2	7/1	7/1
Thorntonledale Max	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Visibility	14/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Autumn Rose	14/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
South Kensington	66/1	50/1	50/1	40/1	33/1
Cable Beach	66/1	80/1	80/1	80/1	66/1
Alreet Cha	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

King Of Ithaca

26.4

OR: 5.3 Form: 14.5 Odds: 6.7

11/4

2nd

Eligible

22.2

OR: 6 Form: 10 Odds: 6.2

10/3

3rd

Lord Rapscallion

17.4

OR: 4.5 Form: 5.6 Odds: 7.3

3/1

Autumn Rose

15.2

OR: 3.3 Form: 10 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Alreet Cha

OR: 5 Form: 8 Odds: 0

—

Thorntonledale Max

12.8

OR: 5.5 Form: 5.1 Odds: 2.2

12/1

Federal Envoy

11.1

OR: 5.5 Form: 2 Odds: 3.6

7/1

Visibility

10.3

OR: 4.8 Form: 3.6 Odds: 1.9

14/1

South Kensington

5.8

OR: 5.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

66/1

Cable Beach

1.2

OR: 0.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

80/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Eligible	74	91	61
Federal Envoy	72	82	36
Thorntonledale Max	72	81	68
King Of Ithaca	71	86	67
South Kensington	71	82	—
Alreet Cha	70	85	—
Visibility	69	82	64
Lord Rapscallion	68	87	61
Autumn Rose	63	83	64
Cable Beach	53	76	51

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Lord Rapscallion	8d ago	Quick return
Eligible	10d ago	Quick return
Alreet Cha	10d ago	Quick return
Thorntonledale Max	23d ago	Fit
Visibility	28d ago	Fit
Autumn Rose	28d ago	Fit
Cable Beach	35d ago	Fit
King Of Ithaca	41d ago	Fit
Federal Envoy	160d ago	Long break
South Kensington	170d ago	Long break