Boost Your Acca At BetMGM Nursery Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

18:15

Boost Your Acca At BetMGM Nursery Handicap

Date 2024-12-13

Distance 4f214y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 2yo

Prize £3,716

Runners (12)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (12)	Commander Atkinson Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Geoff Oldroyd	J:Billy Garritty T:Geoff Oldroyd	133	—	58023	73	84	75	46d	—	—	-3	18.9	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Two good nursery runs in October, including C&D; still capable of better
12 (7)	The Vital Spark Bay J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	J:Tom Eaves T:Kevin Ryan	124	—	064	64	82	-	63d	—	—	-11	9.7	1.00/1	4/1 20%
Shaped quite nicely at York when last seen in October; drop to 5f should suit; unexposed
2 (6)	Solvency Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Alice Haynes	135	—	102	75	81	55	22d	—	—	+9	19.1	1.88/1	15/2 12%
Turf win on debut and ran well when second at Wolverhampton last month; more needed here
3 (3)	Farandaway b/br J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	J:Sam James T:Grant Tuer	135	—	222	75	79	47	45d	—	1W/1P 1 run	+11	19.6	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Runner-up all three starts; best form at 6f though and blew the start latest; risky
7 (8)	Solar Edge Grey J:Luke Morris T:Christopher Mason	J:Luke Morris T:Christopher Mason	131	—	595101	71	82	60	10d	—	—	+15	22.2	3.00/1	12/1 8%
2-3 in nurseries and he was well on top at the finish at Lingfield last time; 1lb well in
6 (2)	Flicka's Girl Chestnut J:William Pyle(3) T:David Loughnane	J:William Pyle(3) T:David Loughnane	131	—	142086	71	80	49	104d	—	—	+2	8.5	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Early promise but poor form on her last three starts; now back with her original trainer
9 (1)	Natsumi Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole	J:Rossa Ryan T:Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole	125	t	66512	65	83	74	10d	—	—	+11	17.5	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Got going too late behind Solar Edge latest; 6lb better off; this track may suit better
11 (5)	Loudan Bay J:Jason Watson T:Andrew Balding	J:Jason Watson T:Andrew Balding	124	—	54278	64	81	75	22d	—	—	+1	7.7	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Bad draw but still well backed at Lingfield latest; never featured and has a bit to prove
8 (4)	Forager Bay J:Paddy Bradley T:Simon Pearce	J:Paddy Bradley T:Simon Pearce	129	h	213052	69	83	64	22d	—	—	+8	14.4	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Ran well from a tough draw at Lingfield last month; one to consider
5 (11)	Sonic Si Bay J:Connor Planas(3) T:David Loughnane	J:Connor Planas(3) T:David Loughnane	132	t	23325	72	83	60	22d	—	—	+9	13.6	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Fair form in the spring and again on recent nursery debut; may yet do better; yard run two
1 (9)	Fiorella Princess Bay J:Adam Farragher T:Amy Murphy	J:Adam Farragher T:Amy Murphy	135	—	212	75	81	64	25d	—	—	+17	22.1	4.50/1	18/1 5%
Promise in all three starts; not discounted despite top weight on nursery debut
10 (10)	Toolatetonegotiate Grey J:Trevor Whelan T:Daisy Hitchins	J:Trevor Whelan T:Daisy Hitchins	124	—	376724	64	82	64	22d	—	—	+3	8.6	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Two good nursery runs this autumn but work to do with Forager on latest run

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Commander Atkinson	3/1	3/1	3/1	11/4	11/4
The Vital Spark	7/2	10/3	7/2	10/3	4/1
Solvency	7/1	15/2	7/1	7/1	7/1
Farandaway	10/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	9/1
Solar Edge	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Flicka's Girl	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Natsumi	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	12/1
Loudan	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	12/1
Forager	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Sonic Si	20/1	20/1	20/1	20/1	20/1
Fiorella Princess	16/1	18/1	16/1	16/1	14/1
Toolatetonegotiate	25/1	25/1	28/1	28/1	25/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Solar Edge

22.2

OR: 5.3 Form: 15 Odds: 1.9

12/1

2nd

Fiorella Princess

22.1

OR: 6.3 Form: 14.5 Odds: 1.4

18/1

3rd

Farandaway

19.6

OR: 6.3 Form: 11 Odds: 2.4

10/1

Solvency

19.1

OR: 6.3 Form: 10 Odds: 2.9

15/2

Commander Atkinson

18.9

OR: 5.8 Form: 6.5 Odds: 6.7

3/1

Natsumi

17.5

OR: 3.8 Form: 12 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Forager

14.4

OR: 4.8 Form: 7.9 Odds: 1.7

12/1

Sonic Si

13.6

OR: 5.5 Form: 6.9 Odds: 1.2

20/1

The Vital Spark

9.7

OR: 3.5 Form: 0 Odds: 6.2

4/1

Toolatetonegotiate

8.6

OR: 3.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 1.6

28/1

Flicka's Girl

8.5

OR: 5.3 Form: 1.5 Odds: 1.7

12/1

Loudan

7.7

OR: 3.5 Form: 2.5 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Solvency	75	81	55
Farandaway	75	79	47
Fiorella Princess	75	81	64
Commander Atkinson	73	84	75
Sonic Si	72	83	60
Solar Edge	71	82	60
Flicka's Girl	71	80	49
Forager	69	83	64
Natsumi	65	83	74
The Vital Spark	64	82	—
Loudan	64	81	75
Toolatetonegotiate	64	82	64

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Solar Edge	10d ago	Quick return
Natsumi	10d ago	Quick return
Solvency	22d ago	Fit
Loudan	22d ago	Fit
Forager	22d ago	Fit
Sonic Si	22d ago	Fit
Toolatetonegotiate	22d ago	Fit
Fiorella Princess	25d ago	Fit
Farandaway	45d ago	Fit
Commander Atkinson	46d ago	Fresh
The Vital Spark	63d ago	Fresh
Flicka's Girl	104d ago	Long break