Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

13:35

Weekly Free Bets With BetMGM Extra Handicap

Date 2025-01-17

Distance 6f

Class Class 2

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £23,193

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
6 (3)	Brosay Bay J:Edward Greatrex T:Paul Attwater	J:Edward Greatrex T:Paul Attwater	127	p	3001-2	83	102	99	8d	—	—	-1	19.4	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Has taken his form to a new level since joining this yard and wearing cheekpieces
4 (9)	Cyclonite Chestnut J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Ferguson	J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Ferguson	130	b	32191-	86	98	92	44d	—	—	+15	30.5	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Gelded prior to Kempton win, taking AW record to 3211; open to further progress; player
8 (1)	Motawahij Bay J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	124	—	202-	80	101	-	172d	—	—	+5	19	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Form of final 2yo effort has been well advertised by the winner since; interesting
1 (5)	Dubai Bling Bay J:Tom Marquand T:Hugo Palmer	J:Tom Marquand T:Hugo Palmer	135	—	125-	91	90	-	182d	—	—	+10	22.4	1.63/1	13/2 13%
Ran well in Listed grade on last appearance; won on debut, so looks one to catch fresh
2 (8)	Marchogion Bay J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	J:David Probert T:Andrew Balding	132	—	422-	88	90	52	125d	—	—	+9	21.6	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Novice form stacks up very well, suggesting he's on a workable opening mark; respected
7 (6)	So Darn Hot Bay J:Warren Fentiman(7) T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	J:Warren Fentiman(7) T:Kevin Philippart De Foy	126	—	73212-	82	99	81	55d	—	—	+18	25.6	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Consistent in the autumn; fighting chance with Warren Fentiman taking off 7lb
3 (7)	Line Of Force Chestnut J:Billy Loughnane T:Joseph Parr	J:Billy Loughnane T:Joseph Parr	130	—	6241-4	86	95	65	13d	—	—	+4	10.7	3.00/1	12/1 8%
Return to 6f will suit but his form is consistent rather than progressive
5 (4)	Yes I'm Mali b/br J:Joe Fanning T:Richard Fahey	J:Joe Fanning T:Richard Fahey	127	—	00132-	83	98	80	19d	—	—	+16	22	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Has form figures of 132 since switched to AW, the win at this venue; solid
9 (2)	Winchurch Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Michael Appleby	J:Hollie Doyle T:Michael Appleby	121	—	15552-	77	98	84	20d	—	—	+11	14.6	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Campaigned mostly at 5f; far from certain to get home back over 6f on stiff track

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Brosay	10/3	7/2	10/3	7/2	3/1
Cyclonite	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2	9/2
Motawahij	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1	5/1
Dubai Bling	6/1	6/1	6/1	11/2	13/2
Marchogion	6/1	6/1	6/1	5/1	6/1
So Darn Hot	17/2	17/2	9/1	10/1	17/2
Line Of Force	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1	12/1
Yes I'm Mali	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1	14/1
Winchurch	28/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	40/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Cyclonite

30.5

OR: 9 Form: 17.1 Odds: 4.4

9/2

2nd

So Darn Hot

25.6

OR: 8 Form: 15.4 Odds: 2.2

10/1

3rd

Dubai Bling

22.4

OR: 10.3 Form: 8.5 Odds: 3.6

13/2

Yes I'm Mali

OR: 8.3 Form: 12.1 Odds: 1.6

14/1

Marchogion

21.6

OR: 9.5 Form: 8.5 Odds: 3.6

6/1

Brosay

19.4

OR: 8.3 Form: 5 Odds: 6.2

7/2

Motawahij

OR: 7.5 Form: 7.5 Odds: 4

5/1

Winchurch

14.6

OR: 6.8 Form: 7 Odds: 0.9

40/1

Line Of Force

10.7

OR: 9 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

12/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Dubai Bling	91	90	—
Marchogion	88	90	52
Cyclonite	86	98	92
Line Of Force	86	95	65
Brosay	83	102	99
Yes I'm Mali	83	98	80
So Darn Hot	82	99	81
Motawahij	80	101	—
Winchurch	77	98	84

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Brosay	8d ago	Quick return
Line Of Force	13d ago	Quick return
Yes I'm Mali	19d ago	Fit
Winchurch	20d ago	Fit
Cyclonite	44d ago	Fit
So Darn Hot	55d ago	Fresh
Marchogion	125d ago	Long break
Motawahij	172d ago	Long break
Dubai Bling	182d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 6f. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 11 draws with historical results at this course and distance.