Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap – Southwell (AW)

Southwell (AW)

18:30

Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap

Date 2025-02-06

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 6

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £4,711

Runners (10)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
7 (8)	Northern Cracksman Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:Lawrence Mullaney	J:Billy Loughnane T:Lawrence Mullaney	131	b	529-41	56	72	45	12d	—	—	-15	8.8	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Came under Billy Loughnane at Newcastle recently and should go well again
2 (10)	I Can't Believe Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:David Evans	J:Rossa Ryan T:David Evans	135	v	765-12	60	77	67	9d	—	—	-14	9.8	0.75/1	3/1 25%
Win and second inside 24 hours at Wolverhampton at end of January; big player
5 (5)	Retraction Bay J:Jason Hart T:Ruth Carr	J:Jason Hart T:Ruth Carr	132	—	5333-5	57	72	64	23d	—	—	-12	7.5	0.88/1	7/2 22%
Ended 2024 with three placed efforts but only fifth over C&D last month
10 (3)	Ring Of Gold Bay J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Joanna Mason T:Michael & David Easterby	127	v	4050-6	52	74	51	23d	—	—	-7	3.6	2.00/1	8/1 11%
No obvious encouragement of late; a first-time visor needs to help.
4 (6)	Light Up Our Stars Bay J:Joey Haynes T:Scott Dixon	J:Joey Haynes T:Scott Dixon	132	ht	743-85	57	71	64	10d	—	—	-5	4.3	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Well-treated C&D scorer but 3l fifth to I Can't Believe at Wolverhampton recently
1 (2)	Al Suil Eile Grey J:Robert Havlin T:Shaun Harris	J:Robert Havlin T:Shaun Harris	135	—	57-668	60	71	54	10d	—	—	-4	4.9	2.75/1	11/1 8%
Three C&D wins last winter but yet to find same form this AW season
3 (9)	Down To The Kid Chestnut J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	J:Tom Eaves T:Michael Herrington	133	—	55/0-0	58	70	-	22d	—	—	-1	3.2	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Tailed off in two runs over 1m3f here since returning from wind surgery
9 (1)	Mykonos St John Bay J:Taryn Langley(7) T:Scott Dixon	J:Taryn Langley(7) T:Scott Dixon	129	v	794-77	54	71	60	9d	—	—	-2	2.1	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Well treated on last year's form but he's been more miss than hit lately
6 (7)	First Dynasty Bay J:Grace McEntee T:Max Young	J:Grace McEntee T:Max Young	132	p	1740-9	57	72	63	33d	—	—	0	2.2	12.50/1	50/1 2%
C&D scorer in October but has gone off the boil since
8 (4)	Create Bay J:Mikkel Mortensen(5) T:Scott Dixon	J:Mikkel Mortensen(5) T:Scott Dixon	130	p	97606-	55	69	60	47d	0W/0P 1 run	0W/0P 1 run	0	1.8	16.50/1	66/1 1%
C&D winner but mixed form of late

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Northern Cracksman	5/2	11/4	5/2	5/2	5/2
I Can't Believe	11/4	3/1	11/4	11/4	3/1
Retraction	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2	7/2
Ring Of Gold	8/1	15/2	8/1	15/2	8/1
Light Up Our Stars	10/1	9/1	9/1	9/1	11/1
Al Suil Eile	9/1	11/1	11/1	11/1	9/1
Down To The Kid	18/1	20/1	20/1	20/1	18/1
Mykonos St John	25/1	25/1	25/1	25/1	22/1
First Dynasty	40/1	50/1	50/1	50/1	40/1
Create	66/1	66/1	66/1	66/1	50/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

I Can't Believe

9.8

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

3/1

2nd

Northern Cracksman

8.8

OR: 1.5 Form: 0 Odds: 7.3

11/4

3rd

Retraction

7.5

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 5.7

7/2

Al Suil Eile

4.9

OR: 2.5 Form: 0 Odds: 2.4

11/1

Light Up Our Stars

4.3

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

11/1

Ring Of Gold

3.6

OR: 0.5 Form: 0 Odds: 3.1

8/1

Down To The Kid

3.2

OR: 2 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

20/1

First Dynasty

2.2

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.5

50/1

Mykonos St John

2.1

OR: 1 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

25/1

Create

1.8

OR: 1.3 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

66/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
I Can't Believe	60	77	67
Al Suil Eile	60	71	54
Down To The Kid	58	70	—
Retraction	57	72	64
Light Up Our Stars	57	71	64
First Dynasty	57	72	63
Northern Cracksman	56	72	45
Create	55	69	60
Mykonos St John	54	71	60
Ring Of Gold	52	74	51

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
I Can't Believe	9d ago	Quick return
Mykonos St John	9d ago	Quick return
Light Up Our Stars	10d ago	Quick return
Al Suil Eile	10d ago	Quick return
Northern Cracksman	12d ago	Quick return
Down To The Kid	22d ago	Fit
Retraction	23d ago	Fit
Ring Of Gold	23d ago	Fit
First Dynasty	33d ago	Fit
Create	47d ago	Fresh

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.