BetMGM: It's Showtime Handicap – Newcastle (AW)

Newcastle (AW)

19:30

BetMGM: It's Showtime Handicap

Date 2025-03-29

Distance 7f14y

Class Class 5

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £3,978

Runners (9)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (6)	Tuco Salamanca Bay J:P J McDonald T:Ollie Sangster	J:P J McDonald T:Ollie Sangster	134	—	587-11	73	83	72	15d	—	—	-25	21.1	0.23/1	10/11 52%
2-2 since a wind op; 3lb rise for latest win looks fair; leading claims in hat-trick bid
1 (8)	War Howl Brown J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	J:Alistair Rawlinson T:Michael Appleby	135	—	03940-	74	78	64	190d	—	—	-5	11.9	1.13/1	9/2 18%
Huge chance if reproducing August's Newmarket third on his stable debut
4 (3)	Saxonia Chestnut J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	J:Joe Fanning T:Charlie Johnston	133	—	54-313	72	84	53	14d	—	—	-7	10.5	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Improved for a gelding operation; conditions no problem and should be involved again
2 (5)	Hot To Dot Bay J:Connor Beasley T:Gemma Tutty	J:Connor Beasley T:Gemma Tutty	135	—	1622-	74	82	47	142d	—	—	+11	19.9	2.13/1	17/2 11%
5f novice winner; ended 2024 with two 2nds in 7f AW nurseries; 4lb higher back from break
5 (1)	Sorbus Chestnut J:Darragh Keenan T:George Scott	J:Darragh Keenan T:George Scott	132	t	4-173	71	83	62	15d	—	—	0	7.2	3.50/1	14/1 7%
1m maiden win for E Walker in Jan; third to Tuco Salamanca latest; 4lb better off; chance
6 (7)	Suzette Chestnut J:Harry Russell T:Ollie Pears	J:Harry Russell T:Ollie Pears	132	—	33199-	71	81	-	168d	—	—	+10	12.3	12.50/1	50/1 2%
7f win on her nursery debut last summer; struggled in better races after; AW debut
8 (4)	Tarlac Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Katie Scott	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Katie Scott	127	—	047-86	66	81	60	9d	—	—	+2	4.6	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Two quiet 6f runs for current yard; down in weights, up in trip and Paul Mulrennan booked
7 (2)	Blueandtangerine Bay J:Lewis Chalkley(7) T:Michael & David Easterby	J:Lewis Chalkley(7) T:Michael & David Easterby	131	—	61647-	70	81	-	168d	—	—	+7	8.5	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Turf winner as a 2yo and this is weaker than last assignment; needs a career best though
9 (9)	Bad Habits Bay J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	J:James Sullivan T:Ruth Carr	125	—	-92889	64	78	68	7d	—	—	+4	5.3	20.00/1	80/1 1%
Runner-up on final start for G Boughey in Jan but barely beaten a rival for current stable

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Tuco Salamanca	10/11	evn	10/11	5/6	10/11
War Howl	4/1	4/1	4/1	9/2	4/1
Saxonia	9/2	9/2	9/2	4/1	5/1
Hot To Dot	8/1	17/2	17/2	17/2	17/2
Sorbus	12/1	14/1	12/1	12/1	14/1
Suzette	40/1	40/1	40/1	33/1	50/1
Tarlac	40/1	40/1	40/1	33/1	40/1
Blueandtangerine	50/1	50/1	50/1	40/1	50/1
Bad Habits	80/1	80/1	80/1	80/1	80/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Tuco Salamanca

21.1

OR: 5.8 Form: 0 Odds: 15.4

10/11

2nd

Hot To Dot

19.9

OR: 6 Form: 11.5 Odds: 2.4

17/2

3rd

Suzette

12.3

OR: 5.3 Form: 6.5 Odds: 0.6

50/1

War Howl

11.9

OR: 6 Form: 0.9 Odds: 5

9/2

Saxonia

10.5

OR: 5.5 Form: 0 Odds: 5

5/1

Blueandtangerine

8.5

OR: 5 Form: 3 Odds: 0.5

50/1

Sorbus

7.2

OR: 5.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Bad Habits

5.3

OR: 3.5 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0.3

80/1

Tarlac

4.6

OR: 4 Form: 0 Odds: 0.6

40/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
War Howl	74	78	64
Hot To Dot	74	82	47
Tuco Salamanca	73	83	72
Saxonia	72	84	53
Sorbus	71	83	62
Suzette	71	81	—
Blueandtangerine	70	81	—
Tarlac	66	81	60
Bad Habits	64	78	68

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Bad Habits	7d ago	Quick return
Tarlac	9d ago	Quick return
Saxonia	14d ago	Fit
Tuco Salamanca	15d ago	Fit
Sorbus	15d ago	Fit
Hot To Dot	142d ago	Long break
Suzette	168d ago	Long break
Blueandtangerine	168d ago	Long break
War Howl	190d ago	Long break

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Newcastle (AW) over 7f14y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Based on 12 draws with historical results at this course and distance.