David Lucas Top Price On Welsh Sport Handicap – Chepstow

Chepstow

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David Lucas Top Price On Welsh Sport Handicap

Date 2025-05-13

Distance 6f16y

Class Class 5

Going Good

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 4yo+

Prize £4,187

Runners (13)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
4 (7)	Bear Rock Bay J:Hollie Doyle T:Michael Mullineaux	J:Hollie Doyle T:Michael Mullineaux	132	—	22-241	67	84	73	17d	—	—	-15	12.7	0.56/1	9/4 31%
Improved for handicapping on turf the last twice; still well treated; can progress again
1 (3)	Mojomaker Bay J:Rossa Ryan T:David Loughnane	J:Rossa Ryan T:David Loughnane	135	t	-38333	70	83	71	13d	—	—	-3	18.7	0.69/1	11/4 27%
Poor strike-rate but capable at this level and Rossa Ryan back in the saddle; blinkers off
7 (11)	Francisco Bay J:Alfie Redman(7) T:Patrick Chamings	J:Alfie Redman(7) T:Patrick Chamings	128	—	282371	63	81	-	17d	—	0W/0P 1 run	+8	19.6	1.75/1	7/1 13%
Slow starter; managed to win a 7f AW event last month but likely vulnerable back at 6f
6 (1)	Saffredi Bay J:Ray Dawson T:Grace Harris	J:Ray Dawson T:Grace Harris	128	—	551-13	63	83	-	24d	—	—	-2	5.4	2.50/1	10/1 9%
Progressive since dropped back in trip by new yard; fast turf a query but still considered
3 (8)	Connie's Rose Bay J:Kieran O'Neill T:Grace Harris	J:Kieran O'Neill T:Grace Harris	133	tp	788-78	68	79	62	23d	—	—	0	6.2	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Yet to fire in two 5f runs this year (after wind op); down in the weights but others safer
9 (13)	Ten Club b/br J:Finley Marsh T:Adrian Wintle	J:Finley Marsh T:Adrian Wintle	126	h	90-765	61	81	63	48d	—	—	-2	4.7	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Improving with each AW run for new stable but he has much more to prove back on the grass
8 (2)	Vaunted Bay J:Tom Marquand T:Adrian Wintle	J:Tom Marquand T:Adrian Wintle	127	—	3101-0	62	83	51	17d	—	—	-3	5.5	3.50/1	14/1 7%
C&D success last August was one of three wins in 2024; down the field on return; e-w shout
10 (9)	Vape Grey J:David Probert T:John & Rhys Flint	J:David Probert T:John & Rhys Flint	124	p	63554-	59	80	77	206d	—	—	-1	4.9	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Won this race in 2023 off 10lb higher; can go well fresh; contender off his handy mark
11 (12)	Moe's Legacy Grey J:Rob Hornby T:Ronald Harris	J:Rob Hornby T:Ronald Harris	124	v	3100-6	59	80	76	14d	—	—	-1	3.3	5.50/1	22/1 4%
Back to her last winning mark; conditions no problem and sharper for recent return
2 (6)	Macs Dilemma Bay J:James Turner(5) T:John O'Shea	J:James Turner(5) T:John O'Shea	133	h	52637-	68	81	69	240d	—	—	+4	9.5	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Multiple course winner; fair mark if ready to roll after an absence; new headgear
12 (10)	Bama Lama Chestnut J:Oliver Searle(5) T:Rod Millman	J:Oliver Searle(5) T:Rod Millman	122	—	415-77	57	80	50	15d	—	—	-1	2.6	7.00/1	28/1 3%
Conditions fine and on a winning mark but she's enjoyed all her success at Class 6 level
13 (4)	Radiant Angel Bay J:Nicola Currie T:Joe Ponting	J:Nicola Currie T:Joe Ponting	122	tp	152887	57	79	60	8d	—	—	+1	4	10.00/1	40/1 2%
6f AW win in February; not at best on turf the last twice
5 (5)	Monkey Miss Bay J:William Carson T:Tony Carroll	J:William Carson T:Tony Carroll	129	—	21147-	64	79	68	245d	—	—	+11	13	12.50/1	50/1 2%
Three wins last year, the last two over 7f; drop to 6f could find her out on stable debut

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Bear Rock	15/8	9/4	2/1	2/1	2/1
Mojomaker	11/4	11/4	11/4	11/4	11/4
Francisco	13/2	7/1	7/1	7/1	13/2
Saffredi	10/1	10/1	9/1	9/1	9/1
Connie's Rose	14/1	14/1	12/1	14/1	11/1
Ten Club	12/1	14/1	12/1	14/1	11/1
Vaunted	14/1	14/1	15/2	12/1	10/1
Vape	16/1	16/1	11/1	14/1	14/1
Moe's Legacy	22/1	22/1	20/1	22/1	22/1
Macs Dilemma	25/1	22/1	14/1	20/1	20/1
Bama Lama	28/1	28/1	25/1	25/1	22/1
Radiant Angel	40/1	33/1	28/1	28/1	28/1
Monkey Miss	50/1	50/1	40/1	50/1	50/1

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Francisco

19.6

OR: 3.3 Form: 13 Odds: 3.3

7/1

2nd

Mojomaker

18.7

OR: 5 Form: 7.2 Odds: 6.5

11/4

3rd

Monkey Miss

OR: 3.5 Form: 9 Odds: 0.5

50/1

Bear Rock

12.7

OR: 4.3 Form: 0 Odds: 8.4

9/4

Macs Dilemma

9.5

OR: 4.5 Form: 3.6 Odds: 1.4

25/1

Connie's Rose

6.2

OR: 4.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.7

14/1

Vaunted

5.5

OR: 3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.5

14/1

Saffredi

5.4

OR: 3.3 Form: 0 Odds: 2.1

10/1

Vape

4.9

OR: 2.3 Form: 0.9 Odds: 1.7

16/1

Ten Club

4.7

OR: 2.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.9

14/1

Radiant Angel

OR: 1.8 Form: 1.5 Odds: 0.7

40/1

Moe's Legacy

3.3

OR: 2.3 Form: 0 Odds: 1.1

22/1

Bama Lama

2.6

OR: 1.8 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

28/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Mojomaker	70	83	71
Connie's Rose	68	79	62
Macs Dilemma	68	81	69
Bear Rock	67	84	73
Monkey Miss	64	79	68
Francisco	63	81	—
Saffredi	63	83	—
Vaunted	62	83	51
Ten Club	61	81	63
Vape	59	80	77
Moe's Legacy	59	80	76
Bama Lama	57	80	50
Radiant Angel	57	79	60

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Radiant Angel	8d ago	Quick return
Mojomaker	13d ago	Quick return
Moe's Legacy	14d ago	Fit
Bama Lama	15d ago	Fit
Bear Rock	17d ago	Fit
Francisco	17d ago	Fit
Vaunted	17d ago	Fit
Connie's Rose	23d ago	Fit
Saffredi	24d ago	Fit
Ten Club	48d ago	Fresh
Vape	206d ago	Long break
Macs Dilemma	240d ago	Long break
Monkey Miss	245d ago	Long break