BetMGM British EBF October Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares)

Ascot

13:15

Date 2025-10-04

Distance 7f

Class Class 1

Going Soft

Type Flat

Surface Turf

Age Band 3yo+

Prize £31,191

Runners (16)

EW Terms: 4 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
1 (2)	Bright Thunder Bay J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	J:Clifford Lee T:K R Burke	131	—	321352	103	116	106	20d	—	—	-1	35.5	0.41/1	13/8 38%
Listed win in France in July and placed twice at Group 3 level over 7f since; player
15 (6)	Miss Nightfall Bay J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Fanshawe	J:Daniel Muscutt T:James Fanshawe	126	—	-26345	97	112	92	20d	—	—	+4	18.3	1.25/1	5/1 17%
Has run well in defeat on all starts this year; fifth in 7f Group 3 on soft latest; claims
9 (13)	Cajole Bay J:Tyler Heard T:John & Thady Gosden	J:Tyler Heard T:John & Thady Gosden	126	—	122254	100	118	104	35d	—	—	+9	20.8	1.50/1	6/1 14%
Consistent record and travels through her races as though the drop back to 7f could suit
16 (3)	Nardra Bay J:Cieren Fallon T:William Haggas	J:Cieren Fallon T:William Haggas	126	—	1-52	94	109	70	91d	—	—	+13	20	3.00/1	12/1 8%
5th in Group 3 on return and quick ground possibly against her since; retains potential
13 (11)	Flight Chestnut J:Jamie Spencer T:Ollie Sangster	J:Jamie Spencer T:Ollie Sangster	126	—	3-2680	107	122	100	35d	—	—	+12	18	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Excellent second in 1,000 Guineas on reappearance but has regressed since
5 (4)	Fair Point Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:Ralph Beckett	J:Marco Ghiani T:Ralph Beckett	128	b	0-9200	100	118	83	20d	—	—	+9	13.9	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Twice runner-up at this level but well held in Group 3s last twice; blinkers applied
11 (10)	Dash Of Azure Bay J:Edward Greatrex T:Ralph Beckett	J:Edward Greatrex T:Ralph Beckett	126	—	-15701	89	108	87	28d	—	—	+18	23.1	3.50/1	14/1 7%
Back on the up with 7f Class 3 handicap win latest but this demands more
8 (12)	Sunfall Grey J:Charles Bishop T:David O'Meara	J:Charles Bishop T:David O'Meara	128	t	101-99	101	117	86	20d	—	—	+10	14	5.00/1	20/1 5%
Ninth in two Group 3s this year but won this race last year on soft; revival not ruled out
2 (7)	Arolla Bay J:Paul Mulrennan T:Harry Charlton	J:Paul Mulrennan T:Harry Charlton	128	t	6-2077	96	115	71	20d	—	—	+9	12.4	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Second in 7f Listed on reappearance but below par since
10 (16)	Circios Bay J:Joe Leavy T:Ralph Beckett	J:Joe Leavy T:Ralph Beckett	126	—	221	81	100	80	66d	—	—	+21	24.7	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Winner of 7f Redcar novice latest; more to come but this is a jump in class
12 (1)	Ellaria Sand Bay J:Dougie Costello T:Ollie Sangster	J:Dougie Costello T:Ollie Sangster	126	t	1-4983	94	110	93	35d	—	—	+15	19	6.25/1	25/1 4%
Listed winner on heavy at 2; good third in handicap latest; tongue-tie added
6 (14)	Love Dynasty Bay J:George Wood T:Kevin Ryan	J:George Wood T:Kevin Ryan	128	—	1/1-	86	102	68	345d	—	—	+24	26.9	8.25/1	33/1 3%
Unbeaten in two novices for William Haggas a year apart; off another 11 months
3 (8)	Bellaphina Bay J:Jack Kearney T:John Andrew Kinsella	J:Jack Kearney T:John Andrew Kinsella	128	t	415384	98	112	88	15d	—	—	+13	16.3	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Has reached frame at Listed level in recent starts but needs more to win in this grade
7 (9)	Queen's Reign Chestnut J:Kieran Shoemark T:Ed Walker	J:Kieran Shoemark T:Ed Walker	128	—	2-2758	95	112	68	20d	—	—	+13	15.4	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Went close in French Listed race on reappearance but below that level since
14 (15)	Magic Basma Bay J:Billy Garritty T:Kevin Ryan	J:Billy Garritty T:Kevin Ryan	126	p	-04524	96	109	106	15d	—	—	+14	15.4	16.50/1	66/1 1%
Has reached the frame in sprint Listed races last twice but stamina to prove back at 7f
NR (5)	Dubai Treasure Bay J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Saeed bin Suroor	J:Silvestre De Sousa T:Saeed bin Suroor	128	—	1-1418	100	117	95	43d	—	—	—	19.5	—	—
Disappointed in Listed latest but largely progressive prior to that; yard won this in 2022

Horse	bet365	Coral	Virgin Bet
Bright Thunder	13/8	6/4	13/8
Miss Nightfall	9/2	5/1	9/2
Cajole	11/2	6/1	6/1
Nardra	11/1	12/1	10/1
Flight	12/1	14/1	14/1
Fair Point	14/1	14/1	14/1
Dash Of Azure	14/1	14/1	14/1
Sunfall	18/1	20/1	16/1
Arolla	25/1	25/1	25/1
Circios	25/1	25/1	25/1
Ellaria Sand	25/1	25/1	25/1
Love Dynasty	33/1	33/1	28/1
Bellaphina	33/1	40/1	33/1
Queen's Reign	40/1	40/1	40/1
Magic Basma	66/1	66/1	66/1
Dubai Treasure	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Bright Thunder

35.5

OR: 13.3 Form: 10.5 Odds: 11.8

13/8

2nd

Love Dynasty

26.9

OR: 9 Form: 17 Odds: 0.9

33/1

3rd

Circios

24.7

OR: 7.8 Form: 16 Odds: 1

25/1

Dash Of Azure

23.1

OR: 9.8 Form: 12 Odds: 1.4

14/1

Cajole

20.8

OR: 12.5 Form: 5 Odds: 3.3

6/1

Nardra

OR: 11 Form: 7 Odds: 2

12/1

Dubai Treasure

19.5

OR: 12.5 Form: 7 Odds: 0

—

Ellaria Sand

OR: 11 Form: 7 Odds: 1

25/1

Miss Nightfall

18.3

OR: 11.8 Form: 2.5 Odds: 4

5/1

Flight

OR: 14.3 Form: 2.1 Odds: 1.6

14/1

Bellaphina

16.3

OR: 12 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0.8

40/1

Queen's Reign

15.4

OR: 11.3 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0.7

40/1

Magic Basma

15.4

OR: 11.5 Form: 3.5 Odds: 0.4

66/1

Sunfall

OR: 12.8 Form: 0 Odds: 1.2

20/1

Fair Point

13.9

OR: 12.5 Form: 0 Odds: 1.4

14/1

Arolla

12.4

OR: 11.5 Form: 0 Odds: 0.9

25/1

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Flight	107	122	100
Bright Thunder	103	116	106
Sunfall	101	117	86
Cajole	100	118	104
Fair Point	100	118	83
Dubai Treasure	100	117	95
Bellaphina	98	112	88
Miss Nightfall	97	112	92
Arolla	96	115	71
Magic Basma	96	109	106
Queen's Reign	95	112	68
Nardra	94	109	70
Ellaria Sand	94	110	93
Dash Of Azure	89	108	87
Love Dynasty	86	102	68
Circios	81	100	80

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Bellaphina	15d ago	Fit
Magic Basma	15d ago	Fit
Bright Thunder	20d ago	Fit
Miss Nightfall	20d ago	Fit
Fair Point	20d ago	Fit
Sunfall	20d ago	Fit
Arolla	20d ago	Fit
Queen's Reign	20d ago	Fit
Dash Of Azure	28d ago	Fit
Cajole	35d ago	Fit
Flight	35d ago	Fit
Ellaria Sand	35d ago	Fit
Dubai Treasure	43d ago	Fit
Circios	66d ago	Fresh
Nardra	91d ago	Long break
Love Dynasty	345d ago	Long break