Read Meg Nicholl's Blog At betmgm.co.uk Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Southwell (AW)

13:20

Date 2026-01-01

Distance 1m13y

Class Class 4

Going Standard

Type Flat

Surface AW

Age Band 3yo

Prize £8,100

Rain 0%

Runners (8)

EW Terms: 3 places, ¼ odds (standard bookmaker terms — may vary)

#	Horse	Jockey / Trainer	Wt	Gear	Form	OR	RPR	TS	Last	Crs	Dst	Val	Scr	EW	Odds
3 (3)	Bint Kilfrush Chestnut J:Hector Crouch T:James Tate	J:Hector Crouch T:James Tate	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-32	16.3	0.23/1	10/11 52%
550,000euros yearling; dam a useful and well-related middle-distance winner; check market
6 (8)	Shebara Bay J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	J:Oisin Murphy T:Andrew Balding	128	—	2-	-	88	78	80d	—	—	-17	15	0.44/1	7/4 36%
Promising 2nd at Kempton (1m) 80 days ago; open to improvement; solid claims
1 (6)	Areti Bay J:Billy Loughnane T:Oliver Cole	J:Billy Loughnane T:Oliver Cole	128	—	362-	79	85	57	22d	—	—	+6	16.6	2.00/1	8/1 11%
Three solid efforts over 7f; solid form claims if seeing out the longer trip (not assured)
2 (4)	Arrivera Bay J:Jack Mitchell T:Tom Clover	J:Jack Mitchell T:Tom Clover	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-4	1.5	4.00/1	16/1 6%
Dam a useful 7f AW winner (RPR 99); yard had a well-backed newcomer win here recently
4 (1)	Charming Doll Bay J:Marco Ghiani T:Ismail Mohammed	J:Marco Ghiani T:Ismail Mohammed	128	—	63-	-	80	63	22d	—	—	+1	3.8	10.00/1	40/1 2%
Better effort when third at Kempton (7f) after six months off; this demands even more
7 (5)	Song Of The Stars Bay J:Jonny Peate T:James Ferguson	J:Jonny Peate T:James Ferguson	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	-1	0.4	25.00/1	100/1 1%
40,000gns yearling; has 2 winning siblings but other newcomers hold stronger paper claims
5 (2)	Cospicua Bay J:Rob Hornby T:James Tate	J:Rob Hornby T:James Tate	128	—	70-	-	55	30	36d	—	—	-1	0.3	62.50/1	250/1 0%
50-1 and well beaten in two runs in late 2025; minor handicaps beckon.
NR (7)	Star Obsession Bay J:NON-RUNNER T:William Haggas	J:NON-RUNNER T:William Haggas	128	—	—	-	-	-	—	—	—	—	0	—	—
Frankel filly who is related to winners for her connections; interesting debutante

Horse	bet365	William Hill	Boyle Sports	Ladbrokes	Unibet
Bint Kilfrush	10/11	10/11	10/11	10/11	8/11
Shebara	7/4	13/8	13/8	6/4	13/8
Areti	7/1	13/2	13/2	13/2	8/1
Arrivera	16/1	14/1	14/1	16/1	16/1
Charming Doll	40/1	33/1	33/1	33/1	40/1
Song Of The Stars	100/1	100/1	100/1	80/1	100/1
Cospicua	250/1	150/1	200/1	125/1	200/1
Star Obsession	-	-	-	-	-

Predictor

Scored on Official Rating (max 30), Recent Form (max 25), and Market Odds (max 20). Max score: 75.

1st

Areti

16.6

OR: 7.3 Form: 6.5 Odds: 2.9

8/1

2nd

Bint Kilfrush

16.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 16.3

10/11

3rd

Shebara

OR: 0 Form: 5 Odds: 10

7/4

Charming Doll

3.8

OR: 0 Form: 3 Odds: 0.8

40/1

Arrivera

1.5

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 1.5

16/1

Song Of The Stars

0.4

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.4

100/1

Cospicua

0.3

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0.3

250/1

Star Obsession

OR: 0 Form: 0 Odds: 0

—

Ratings

Horse	OR	RPR	TS
Areti	79	85	57
Bint Kilfrush	—	—	—
Shebara	—	88	78
Arrivera	—	—	—
Charming Doll	—	80	63
Song Of The Stars	—	—	—
Cospicua	—	55	30
Star Obsession	—	—	—

Last Run

Horse	Last Run	Status
Areti	22d ago	Fit
Charming Doll	22d ago	Fit
Cospicua	36d ago	Fit
Shebara	80d ago	Fresh
Bint Kilfrush	—	—
Arrivera	—	—
Song Of The Stars	—	—
Star Obsession	—	—

Draw Bias

Historical win rate by draw at Southwell (AW) over 1m13y. Darker = more wins.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Based on 9 draws with historical results at this course and distance.